Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Talladega

At Texas we saw Kyle Larson almost clinch his spot into the next round, then Bubba Wallace almost clinch his spot as well, but in the end it was William Byron clinching a spot in the Round of 8. This week we head to Talladega where no one knows what will happen, but if things go the right way some drivers could clinch a spot based on points. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) William Byron

• • • Clinched based on win at Texas

2) Denny Hamlin

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 41 points more than Chris Buescher
      • 39 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 38 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 31 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 27 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 21 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 19 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 18 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 10 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 4 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Chris Buescher

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 53 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 46 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 42 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 36 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 34 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 33 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 25 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 19 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Christopher Bell

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 48 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 44 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 38 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 36 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 35 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 27 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 21 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) Martin Truex Jr.

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 49 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 45 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 39 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 37 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 36 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 28 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 22 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Ross Chastain

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 52 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 46 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 44 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 43 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 35 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 29 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

7) Brad Keselowski

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 50 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 48 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 47 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 39 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 33 points more than Kyle Busch
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t clinch

8) Kyle Larson

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

9) Bubba Wallace

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

10) Tyler Reddick

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

11) Ryan Blaney

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

12) Kyle Busch

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Clinched based on win at Texas

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 41 points more than the No.17
      • 39 points more than the No.20
      • 38 points more than the No.19
      • 31 points more than the No.1
      • 27 points more than the No.6
      • 21 points more than the No.5
      • 19 points more than the No.9
      • 18 points more than the No.45
      • 10 points more than the No.12
      • 4 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) RFK Racing No.17

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 54 points more than the No.20
      • 53 points more than the No.19
      • 46 points more than the No.1
      • 42 points more than the No.6
      • 36 points more than the No.5
      • 34 points more than the No.9
      • 33 points more than the No.45
      • 25 points more than the No.12
      • 19 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 48 points more than the No.1
      • 44 points more than the No.6
      • 38 points more than the No.5
      • 36 points more than the No.9
      • 35 points more than the No.45
      • 27 points more than the No.12
      • 21 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 49 points more than the No.1
      • 45 points more than the No.6
      • 39 points more than the No.5
      • 37 points more than the No.9
      • 36 points more than the No.45
      • 28 points more than the No.12
      • 22 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Trackhouse Racing No.1

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 52 points more than the No.6
      • 46 points more than the No.5
      • 44 points more than the No.9
      • 43 points more than the No.45
      • 35 points more than the No.12
      • 29 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

7) RFK Racing No.6

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 50 points more than the No.5
      • 48 points more than the No.9
      • 47 points more than the No.45
      • 39 points more than the No.12
      • 33 points more than the No.8
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t clinch

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

9) Hendrick Motorsports No.9

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

10) 23XI Racing No.45

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

11) Team Penske No.12

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

12) Richard Childress Racing No.8

• • • Only way to clinch is to win