Last week Justin Allgaier clinched the first spot into the Round of 8 with his win at Bristol. This week we head to The Lone Star State and Texas Motor Speedway where a few more drivers and owners can clinch their spot beside Allgaier. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.
*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Justin Allgaier
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- Clinched based on win at Bristol
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2) John Hunter Nemechek
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- Driver below cut or Creed doesn’t win: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 5* of the following scenarios
- 30 points more than than Cole Custer
- 12 points more than Austin Hill
- 9 points more than Chandler Smith
- 3 points more than Daniel Hemric
- Be within 4 points of Sammy Smith
- Be within 5 points of Sheldon Creed
- Be within 9 points of Jeb Burton
- Be within 19 points of Sam Mayer
- Be within 27 points of Parker Kligerman
- Be within 29 points of Josh Berry
- Driver below cut or Creed wins: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 5* of the scenarios above
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3) Cole Custer
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- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 38 points more than Austin Hill
- 35 points more than Chandler Smith
- 29 points more than Daniel Hemric
- 22 points more than Sammy Smith
- 21 points more than Sheldon Creed
- 17 points more than Jeb Burton
- 7 points more than Sam Mayer
- Be within 1 point of Parker Kligerman
- Be within 3 points of Josh Berry
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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4) Austin Hill
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- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 53 points more than Chandler Smith
- 47 points more than Daniel Hemric
- 40 points more than Sammy Smith
- 39 points more than Sheldon Creed
- 35 points more than Jeb Burton
- 25 points more than Sam Mayer
- 17 points more than Parker Kligerman
- 15 points more than Josh Berry
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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5) Chandler Smith
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- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 50 points more than Daniel Hemric
- 43 points more than Sammy Smith
- 42 points more than Sheldon Creed
- 38 points more than Jeb Burton
- 28 points more than Sam Mayer
- 20 points more than Parker Kligerman
- 18 points more than Josh Berry
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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6) Daniel Hemric
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- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 49 points more than Sammy Smith
- 48 points more than Sheldon Creed
- 44 points more than Jeb Burton
- 34 points more than Sam Mayer
- 26 points more than Parker Kligerman
- 24 points more than Josh Berry
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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7) Sammy Smith
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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8) Sheldon Creed
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) Jeb Burton
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Sam Mayer
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) Parker Kligerman
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) Josh Berry
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
1) JR Motorsports No.7
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- Clinched based on win at Bristol
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2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
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- Owner below cut or the No.18 doesn’t win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 5* of the following scenarios
- 30 points more than than the No.00
- 12 points more than the No.19
- 12 points more than the No.21
- 7 points more than the No.16
- 6 points more than the No.10
- Be within 4 points of the No.18
- Be within 6 points of the No.2
- Be within 9 points of the No.27
- Be within 20 points of the No.1
- Be within 30 points of the No.8
- Owner below cut or the No.18 wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
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3) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00
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- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 38 points more than the No.19
- 38 points more than the No.21
- 33 points more than the No.16
- 32 points more than the No.10
- 22 points more than the No.18
- 20 points more than the No.2
- 17 points more than the No.27
- 6 points more than the No.1
- Be within 4 points of the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
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- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 51 points more than the No.16
- 50 points more than the No.10
- 40 points more than the No.18
- 38 points more than the No.2
- 35 points more than the No.27
- 24 points more than the No.1
- 14 points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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5) Richard Childress Racing No.21
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- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
- 51 points more than the No.16
- 50 points more than the No.10
- 40 points more than the No.18
- 38 points more than the No.2
- 35 points more than the No.27
- 24 points more than the No.1
- 14 points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
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6) Kaulig Racing No.16
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- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 45 points more than the No.18
- 43 points more than the No.2
- 40 points more than the No.27
- 29 points more than the No.1
- 19 points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Only way to clinch is to win
- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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7) Kaulig Racing No.10
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- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 46 points more than the No.18
- 44 points more than the No.2
- 41 points more than the No.27
- 30 points more than the No.1
- 20 points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Only way to clinch is to win
- Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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8) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) Richard Childress Racing No.2
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Jordan Anderson Racing No.27
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) JR Motorsports No.1
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) JR Motorsports No.8
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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