Last week, Trackhouse Racing expanded from two drivers to four. Joining Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain under the Trackhouse umbrella is Shane van Gisbergen and Zane Smith. Shane van Gisbergen signed a developmental deal that will see him race across NASCAR’s three national series. Meanwhile, Zane Smith signed a multi-year Cup Series deal that will see him drive for Spire Motorsports next season. With three Cup Series drivers under contract (with a potential fourth if Gisbergen succeeds in developmental), Trackhouse has too many drivers for their two chartered entries. According to Justin Marks, the plan is to acquire at least one charter for 2025. In theory, that charter will be for Smith. However, with potentially four Cup Series ready drivers for 2025, could one get the boot from the team? Under this possibility, Daniel Suarez should be feeling his seat warming.
Daniel Suarez was Trackhouse’s first driver back in 2021. After running a season for Gaunt Brothers Racing, Suarez joined the new team owned by Justin Marks and musician Pitbull. Much like Bubba Wallace to 23XI Racing, Suarez to Trackhouse felt right. Although it was Suarez’s fourth team in as many seasons, Trackhouse looked to be his long term NASCAR home. The team was committed to Suarez and Suarez was the face of the organization. Fast forward to the start of 2023, Suarez signed a multi-year extension prior to the Daytona 500 to stay with Trackhouse. Coming off a career season, it made sense for the team to reup with Suarez.
However, 2023 has not gone to plan for the 99 team. Suarez has failed to live up to the expectations this year. With a logjam of drivers, Daniel Suarez could go from face of the the organization to finding a new team in a year.
Replaced as the Face of Trackhouse
Unlike F1, NASCAR teams do not operate in a mindset of a “driver 1” and “driver(s) 2 (through 4). However, most teams have a driver as the face of the organization. Usually, this is the best performing driver of the team, but it can come down to popularity. When Ross Chastain was added to the Trackhouse lineup in 2022, most people did not know what to expect. He had a decent run with Chip Ganassi but he lagged behind Kurt Busch. He was viewed a a complimentary driver to Suarez. However, nobody expected Chastain to become the face of the Trackhouse. Sitting here in 2023, there is no argument that Ross Chastain has been the de facto “driver 1”.
Statistics
While it may be difficult to compare drivers from different teams, teammates should have similar equipment. The only exception might be when one driver is in the playoffs while the other is not.
Since Ross Chastain joined Trackhouse, he has simply outdrove Daniel Suarez. Except for poles, Chastain has better statistics then Suarez through 65 starts as teammates, as seen in the table below:
| Ross Chastain | Daniel Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Top-5s | 22 | 9 |
| Top-10s | 31 | 21 |
| Poles | 1 | 3 |
| Laps Led | 1,174 | 328 |
| Lead Lap Finishes | 49 | 46 |
| DNFs | 7 | 9 |
| Average Finish | 14.1 | 17.7 |
| Average Start | 15.2 | 15.5 |
In addition the statistics, Chastain is setup to finish better than Suarez in the points again. Chastain has made the playoffs both seasons with Trackhouse. Suarez has gone one for three.
Based on statistics alone, Chastain has taken over as the face of Trackhouse. However, it goes beyond simply being the better driver.
Key Moments
When you think of the key Trackhouse Racing moments, what are those moments? If it is their first win, Ross Chastain secured that at COTA. What about their biggest moment? That also goes to Chastain with the Hail Melon at Martinsville last year. How about their best accomplishment? Once again, Ross Chastain. As seen in their 2023 playoff hype video, Chastain finished second in last year’s points, only losing by 235 feet to Joey Logano. Perhaps some on-track drama for the team then. Well, Chastain has been a magnet of driver rivalries, most notably one with Denny Hamlin.
When you think Trackhouse, now you think of Ross Chastain. Chastain is in Trackhouse’s spotlight while Suarez lingers behind. Based on the on-track performance, Chastain has supplanted Suarez as the face of Trackhouse. While that seemed unlikely prior to the 2022 season, it inarguable now. This does not include the fact that Anheuser Busch is becoming the anchor sponsor for Ross Chastain next year. One of NASCAR’s most notable sponsors switched from Stewart-Haas Racing to Trackhouse to sponsor Chastain.
Does this mean that Daniel Suarez has fallen out of favor with Trackhouse? Absolutely not. However, if there was a need to get rid of one driver, the choice is simple right now.
Plans Can Change
Before discussing what pressures Daniel Suarez might face in 2024, this article is not arguing that Trackhouse is planning on letting Suarez go. Based on the announcements last week, it seems that the Trackhouse plan is to acquire a third charter for the 2025 season for a Cup Series lineup of Chastain, Suarez, and Smith. Shane van Gisbergen is the ultimate question mark since his 2025 status depends on how well he runs in 2024. In theory, Suarez’s seat is safe. He signed a multi-year agreement before this season began, which means contractually he is signed through (at least) 2025. If Trackhouse can purchase a charter, all of this could go down as pure speculation.
With that said, plans can change. Those changes could be due to a couple of factors.
Buying a Charter
A key cog in this plan is Trackhouse getting their hands on a charter for the 2025 season. When examining the charter landscape, there seems to be limited supply in next year’s market. Live Fast’s charter was the obvious one circled for sale, but Spire Motorsports already purchased that one. Stewart-Haas Racing has been rumored to potentially selling at least one of their charters. Their current contract with Ford expires at the end of next season. If there is any truth to the rumors, it would not surprising to see SHR sell off one or two charters before a switch of manufacturers. After that, maybe Rick Ware Racing sells one of theirs due to finishing in the bottom three of owners standings.
Now, a lot can change from now until the heat of next year’s silly season. At the moment though, it looks like there will be at most two charters available. While that gives Trackhouse the opportunity to purchase one, they are not the only team in the market. 23XI Racing and RFK Racing both want to expand their teams. Both have been rumored as looking into the charter market this season.
Other Cup Series teams might want to expand as well. Perhaps a Xfinity series team wants to move up. What if Dale Earnhardt Jr decides to plunge into Cup Series ownership? An outside ownership group could come out of nowhere as well. Trackhouse is not guaranteed a charter if one is available. Also, Trackhouse has a disadvantage in negotiations since they will be seen as needing a charter for Zane Smith.
What if SVG Shines?
Acquiring one charter might be difficult for Trackhouse. However, they are likely lining up the finances to be ready to pay the hefty price tag. If not buying one, the setup for 2024 with Zane Smith being loaned to Spire might be a contingency plan to let Trackhouse lease that charter in 2025. While silly season can get chaotic, Trackhouse surely has plans to ensure a third charter is in their grasp for 2025. What if they need a fourth though?
As mentioned earlier, Shane van Gisbergen is the wild card in this whole equation. His NASCAR future will hinge on 2024. If he struggles, Gisbergen could continue his developmental process in 2025 or return back to Supercars. However, what if he proves he is Cup Series ready? Some could argue that based on his two road course starts alone he is Cup Series ready now. The ovals are the big question mark. If Gisbergen is able to consistently run strongly at the ovals (especially in Cup), would Trackhouse feel the need to have in the Cup Series for 2025?
Acquiring one charter will be difficult enough, but two might be a herculean task. Trackhouse’s current two charters came with the purchase of Chip Ganassi’s NASCAR organization. If SHR is selling two charters, then that is the most straight forward path to purchasing two charters. However, there is a scenario that could play out where Trackhouse only has three charters for their four drivers in 2025.
Heat Check on Daniel Suarez’s Seat
There is a realistic possibility that Trackhouse is one charter shy of what they will need for 2025. With this in mind, Daniel Suarez’s seat for 2024 will start the season warm. Barring the unlikely event that Trackhouse makes a charter deal before the 2024 Daytona 500, Suarez should feel pressure to perform. His teammate has clearly outran Suarez over the past two seasons. Chastain came to Trackhouse with little expectation or fanfare. Now, Chastain is arguably one of the faces of NASCAR and landed a major sponsor for 2024. Meanwhile, Suarez has only won his first Cup Seires race and occasionally gets into spats with Alex Bowman.
Simply put, the performance needs to improve in 2024. Maybe this season is only an off year. To start the season, Suarez had three straight Top-10s. Since then, Suarez has averaged a 20.6 finish. At the road courses, Suarez has one Top-5 and four finishes outside the Top-20 finishes. It is difficult to celebrate that Top-5 since the team had a pit road mistake that jeopardized their contention for the win.
While Ross Chastain had a slow summer, Suarez has had a mistake hampered season. For example, Sonoma was supposed to a great race for Suarez. Instead, he misses a shift and never recovers. It has been a disappointing season, one which he needs to bounce back from swiftly. Would a bounce back season be enough to keep him safe? Suarez has a career season in 2022, yet it is weaker than Chastain’s 2023 season.
A slow start to the 2024 season could change how Trackhouse views their driver lineup, especially if Zane Smith outruns Suarez. Although he is signed through 2025, Trackhouse could determine it is better financially to pay a contract buyout or fee than purchasing a third or fourth charter for an underperforming driver. At the start of the season, the hot seat might not be too bad for Daniel Suarez. The seat will be warm, but lacking a significant threat to job loss. As the season goes on (and charter news potentially stagnates), that seat will get warmer. If he has a copy of 2023 next year, Daniel Suarez will have the hottest seat in the Cup Series.
