Before the opening race of the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs, Kaulig Racing announced that Daniel Hemric would be driving the 31 in the Cup Series for 2024. Hemric will replace the departing Justin Haley. The Bristol announcement resolved the handshake mystery from Chris Rice’s X account. Daniel Hemric will return to fulltime Cup Series competition for the first time since 2019. His 2019 rookie season resulted in Hemric being replaced by Tyler Reddick for the 2020 season. Since then, Hemric has been driving in the Xfinity Series. After winning the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship, Hemric has been with Kaulig Racing in their 11 car. Due to the 10 car making the owner point playoffs, Hemric shifted to the 10 starting last weekend at Kansas Speedway.
Friday’s announcement was only about the 31 car for 2024. While Chris Rice hinted that the driver(s) for the 16 car next season is known, an announcement about that car will come at a later time. While Hemric’s last Cup Series season came with the previous generation of car, the Kaulig Racing driver does have experience with the NextGen car. Last year, Hemric drove the 16 car in nine races. In those nine races, Hemric only managed one Top-10 while averaging a 23.3 finish. Plus, Hemric had four DNFs. To be fair, two of those DNFs were mechanical issues. With Daniel Hemric helming the 31 car, Kaulig is hoping to find more success than they did with Justin Haley.
The Journey Back
Similar to John Hunter Nemechek, Daniel Hemric is returning to the Cup Series after one fulltime season years ago. Unlike Nemechek, Hemric got booted from his ride after a disappointing rookie season. In 2019, Hemric only finished with one Top-5 and two Top-10s. By comparison, teammate Austin Dillon managed to finish with six Top-10s and a three spot better average finish. Although one could argue Hemric deserved a second season, it is tough to keep the back-to-back Xfinity Series champion in the lower series.
Daniel Hemric’s Xfinity Series run after his demotion is a bit odd to review. On one-hand, Hemric won the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship. In a season where his Championship Four competitors won a combined thirteen races, Hemric emerged victorious at Phoenix for his first NASCAR win of his career. While that is a great accomplishment for Hemric, that race win is still his only NASCAR win of his career. Despite driving for three top Xfinity Series teams, Hemric has only managed one win. While consistency is important, drivers for Jr Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Kaulig Racing are expected to win. While Hemric only has one win from 2020-2023, his teammates during those seasons have a combined twenty-four.
Second Chance
After four seasons, Daniel Hemric will receive his second chance in the Cup Series. As discussed earlier, Hemric has seat time with the NextGen car in Kaulig equipment. While his counting statistics look poor, Hemric ran with speed when he was not wrecking out. In the five races where he did not DNF, Hemric averages a 16.6 finish. This includes a Top-10 at Auto Club. All but one of those five finishes were inside the Top-20 as well.
When it was announced that Justin Haley was leaving Kaulig Racing, Daniel Hemric was immediately thought of a potential replacement. Although Chris Rice said the replacement would be surprising, this announcement was somewhat expected. While it may not be the most exciting pick, this fits the Kaulig mold. It is one of their drivers being called up from the Xfinity Series. Plus, Hemric has funding to support his Cup Series ride.
Expectations for Daniel Hemric
What can fans expect from Daniel Hemric and the 31 car next season? Based on the available data and evidence, essentially the same type of results as now. Daniel Hemric is not an improvement upon Justin Haley. Based on their Xfinity Series careers, this could be seen as a stepdown in talent. Also, Hemric is older than Haley.
However, the new driver is not the only reason why the 31 car should have minimal expectations next year. 2023 has been a disappointing season for Kaulig Racing as a whole. AJ Allmendinger’s solid 2022 runs in the 16 have not been backed up by his fulltime run. Even on road courses, Allmendinger never felt like a legitimate threat to win. Last year, Allmendinger had some surprisingly strong runs on non-superspeedway ovals. This year, Allmendinger has one Top-10 on a non-superspeedway oval compared to four in 2022.
Meanwhile, there have been few highlights from Justin Haley in the 31 car. In 2022, Haley had three Top-5s, none of which came at a superspeedways. In 2023, the lone highlight was Haley leading late in the Chicago Street Race before Shane van Gisbergen passed him for the win. Any promise shown in 2022 has been nonexistent this season for the 31.
Simply put, the 31 has lacked competitive speed in the Cup Series. Daniel Hemric is not going to change that with the talent he has demonstrated. Barring significant improvement from Kaulig Racing, Hemric’s ceiling in 2024 is a superspeedway win and a handful of Top-10s.
A Last Chance
Unfortunately for Daniel Hemric, 2024 could be a make or break year for his Cup Series career. Even if Hemric marginally improves the results for the 31 team, it might not be enough to keep him in that ride for 2025. Kaulig Racing already has one young driver who they have Cup Series aspirations for in the Xfinity Series. More than likely, that will grow to two with Derek Kraus reasonably penciled in to replace Hemric in the 11. Hemric could experience déjà vu at the end of the 2024 season if he struggles.
Now, that will depend on what happens with the 16 car. The consensus at the moment is that AJ Allmendinger will not return to the Cup Series next year. That would mean Kaulig will have to replace Allmendinger. Could that replacement be Chandler Smith? Maybe, but his Xfinity season has been inconsistent, especially recently. In the past nine races, Smith only has one Top-10. It is a far cry from the five wins Allmendinger had in that car last year. While Smith could be the replacement, it would be more likely to see a different driver or that car returning as the trophy hunter again.
If the 16 car is open for 2025, Daniel Hemric might have some pressure alleviated in 2024. However, NASCAR silly season can be wild and unpredictable. Kaulig Racing might decide to pull the plug on Hemric’s Cup Series career without needing the 31 car for Smith or Kraus. It will be something to watch play out next season. Either way, Daniel Hemric is Kaulig Racing’s driver for the 31 in 2024.
