From Darlington, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs continue to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400. Fifteen playoff drivers are vying for eleven open spots for the Round of 12. Kyle Larson can relax this weekend and only worry about chasing playoff points. Heading into Sunday’s race, there are five drivers within seven points of each other around the cutline. After the driver-tough Darlington, Kansas offers a traditional mile and a half oval where car performance will be king. Driver skill still has a place though, as the multiple grooves of Kansas allow a variety of racing lanes. With the NextGen car thriving on the intermediates, the racing on Sunday should be entertaining. The spring saw a controversial finish as Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson made contact on the final lap. Will the Hollywood Casino 400 offer the same dramatic finish?
As seen earlier this year, Kansas has been home to strong running Toyotas. Back in the spring, all but one of the Toyotas led a lap. Four Toyotas finished in the Top-10 while the other two crashed out. For the Toyota playoff drivers, Kansas is surely a welcome sight. On the flip side, Ford struggled here in the spring. Only Joey Logano managed to finish inside the Top-10. Will the fall Kansas race be a repeat of the spring? Can you pencil in one of the six Toyotas to come away with the victory? Have the Fords learned anything to help gain speed this weekend? What will the Chevys have to offer?
For the second playoff race of the Cup Series, who are the five drivers to watch for the Hollywood Casino 400? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Austin Dillon
It has been a rough season for Austin Dillon. Through 27 races, Dillon has only managed one Top-5 and six Top-10s. He is on track to have his worst season since 2019. However, spring Kansas was the site of one of his few Top-10s. He was one of two now non-playoff drivers to finish inside the Top-10. When reviewing his season, Dillon’s best tracks have been the traditional intermediates. In addition to his Top-10 at Kansas, Dillon has Top-10s at Charlotte and Auto Club.
With how well Kyle Busch has run this season, the 3 team should have similar speed. While Dillon is not the talent Busch is, 2023 has been more of an aberration than the norm. His current average finishing position is the highest of his fulltime Cup Series career. Dillon leads the Cup Series with eight DNFs. When removing his DNFs, Dillon’s average finish is a more respectable 16.6. If Dillon can avoid wrecking out, he would be a good choice to add to your fantasy lineup as a low-cost driver.
Christopher Bell
After qualifying last week, Darlington looked to be a strong weekend for Christopher Bell. Armed with a fresh pit crew to bolster his team’s strength, Bell felt like a favorite for the Southern 500. Instead, everything fell apart, much like Bell’s car did off the jack during his first pit stop. Heading into the Hollywood Casino 400, Bell is barely above the cutline by single point. Kansas is going to vital for Bell’s playoff hopes in this round. With the speed the Toyotas have shown at the track, Bell should be able to swing his momentum in a positive direction.
With that said, Bell was one of the two Toyotas to DNF in the spring race. During the closing laps of Stage 2, Bell spun out and crashed into the inside wall down the backstretch. Prior to wrecking out, Bell ran inside the Top-10 all race. However, that race is an example of Bell’s season as a whole. Speed has not been the issue. Instead, team mistakes have cost the 20 team. Bell will need to avoid the mistakes this weekend if he wants to stay on the right side of the cutline. Another mistake-ridden race could see Bell in serious peril of being eliminating after the first round.
Kyle Busch
From one playoff driver to another, Kyle Busch’s Darlington was an adventure. For his sake, hopefully Kansas will be a bit simpler. Unlike Bell, Busch’s Darlington mistakes did not translate into a terrible points day. Busch gain points away from the cutline. Heading into this weekend, Busch sits a comfortable 20 points above the cutline. Busch still has to avoid mistakes as much as possible, but his points situation is not as precarious as Bell’s.
As discussed with Austin Dillon, RCR has shown speed at the intermediates this year. Specifically for Busch, he won Auto Club earlier this season and has flashed Top-5 speed at Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Kansas. However, the biggest knock against Busch heading into the playoffs was consistency. Busch has the second most DNFs out of the playoff drivers, including one at Kansas in the spring. While the speed has been there, the 8 team has struggled at times to keep the car on track. Even when it is not a DNF, Busch has found the outside wall or mechanic issues have popped up.
Despite this, Busch should be considered one of the top Chevys to pull out the victory Sunday. If he can avoid the wall, expect Busch to be a contender for the win.
William Byron
While Kyle Larson won last weekend, William Byron looked to be the fastest Hendrick car at Darlington. Will the same hold true for Kansas this weekend? While Larson was battling Denny Hamlin for the win in the spring, Byron ran third. Unlike Larson, Byron’s spring Kansas race was a battle to put his car up front. Based on the loop data, Byron’s average running position was eighteenth, the lowest of anyone in the Top-10. Despite this, Byron ran strong late, leading ten laps in the final stage. It was one of the few times this season where Byron started off slow and then found the speed later in the race.
Heading into the Hollywood Casio 400, William Byron sits atop the points standings. His cushion from the cutline is a cushy 45 points. Barring disaster, Byron’s ticket to the next round is essentially punched. Much like his playoff teammate, Byron and his team’s focus will likely be on winning stages and the race. Based on the spring race, the 24 car will likely run Top-5 during the late portions of the race. If they can find the setup from the start, it would not be surprising to see the Hendrick driver run upfront all race long.
Michael McDowell
No playoff driver heads into Kansas with more work to do than Michael McDowell. Darlington was an utter disaster for the team. Despite a solid qualifying effort (made it to the final round), McDowell was slow all race long. Then to add insult to injury, McDowell plowed into the pack of Denny Hamlin during a wreck that started with his teammate. Entering the Hollywood Casino 400 this weekend, McDowell sits 17 points behind the cutline. Out of the three tracks in this round, Kansas was supposed to be McDowell’s worst.
The 34 team is going to throw everything at this race in order to bounce back from last week. Having a decent finish will not be enough to put McDowell within shooting distance of the cutline. McDowell will need steady Top-10 speed and other playoff drivers experiencing bad luck, especially the ones around the cutline. Can the 34 team bring a car that can run near the Top-5? Based on this season, it would seem doubtful. Outside the road courses and superspeedways, McDowell’s best runs have come at the quirky intermediates and Richmond. Despite this, you should keep an eye on Michael McDowell this weekend to see how he fights back after a bad Southern 500.
