The answer to this article’s question should feel obvious. William Bryon leads the Cup Series with 6 wins. He currently sits atop the points standings and is the only driver currently locked into the Round of 8. When that round begins, Byron will have at least 41 playoffs points banked to help keep him above the cutline. Not to mention the fact that Byron currently has the second best average finish in the Cup Series and has wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix already this season. Plus, the question is not even if William Byron should the championship favorite. Rather, it is pondering whether he should be a championship favorite. On the surface, this seems to be a ridiculous question. However, something feels off about William Byron’s dominate season.
Before going any further, this article is not going to argue that William Byron is not having a great season or believes he will miss the Championship Four. However, if you were to rank how Byron matches up with the other championship favorites, where do you put him? Would you place him ahead of Denny Hamlin? Kyle Larson? Even with his start to the playoffs being a debacle, do you put Byron ahead of Martin Truex Jr? For a driver who has the statistical backing, why does William Byron seem to be considered by many the (at best) third favorite for the championship?
The Numbers
Post Texas Stats: 30 Starts, 6 Wins, 11 Top-5s, 16 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 12.1, 883 Laps Led
By the numbers, William Byron should be considered the class of the Cup Series. Byron leads the Cup Series in wins and Top-10s (tied with Christopher Bell). He ranks second for average finish and laps led, with his Top-5 total coming in a third. On paper, William Byron has been having a dominant season.
When you dig a little deeper into the numbers, William Byron’s dominate season has not lasted all season long. While drivers like Truex, Hamlin, and (somewhat) Larson have been strengthening as the season wanes, Byron has been the opposite. The counting statistics demonstrate a slight dip from the first 15 races compared to the second 15:
First Half: 3 Wins, 7 Top-5s, 9 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 12.2, 717 Laps Led
Second Half: 3 Wins, 4 Top-5s, 7 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 12.0, 166 Laps Led
Obviously, the wins have maintained and his average finish actually improved. However, the big drop is with laps led.
Loop Data
On the surface, the difference between the first and second half for William Byron is barely existent. Outside of laps led, the difference is marginal. However, the laps led statistic implies a dip in dominance. While Byron has three wins in each half of the season, the first half looks stronger based on laps led alone. However, the deeper you dig into the loop data, the more light is shone on this disparity.
In the first half, Byron’s 717 laps led accounted for 17.13% of the total available laps to lead in those 15 races. Almost a a fifth of all Cup Series laps in the first 15 races were led by William Byron. Furthermore, 7 of the first 15 races saw Byron lead at least 12% of the laps. Switching to percentage of laps spent inside the Top-15, only twice did Byron not run inside the Top-15 for at least half the race. One of those two was Talladega (where that could be by design).
Now, time to look at the second half of the season. Byron’s 166 laps led only accounts for 4.78% of the total number of laps. That is a drop of 12.35%. Only 3 of the second half races saw Byron lead at least 10% of the laps. In the second half, Byron has only led a lap in 7 races. While that dip is poor, Byron’s Top-15 running percentage is worse. During the first half, Byron ran inside the Top-15 for 80.72% of the total laps. However, that number drops to 62.98% in the second half (17.74% drop).
The Wins
The recent loop data for William Byron does not portray domination that his numbers imply. However, he still has 6 wins on the season. No matter how well he runs, the wins are still there. Byron and his team have put himself in position to win and they have capitalized on it. Yet, almost every Byron win feels lucked into rather than earned. Outside of Watkins Glen, each win this season has the aura of Byron stealing the win. Once again, a win is a win. There is nothing wrong with winning via luck or well-timed cautions. However, it does hamper the view on a supposedly dominate season.
Las Vegas
William Byron’s first win of the season is arguably his most dominate performance of the season. He qualified on the front row, led 167 laps, and maxed out on points (won both stages and the race). Clearly, he was the best car during the race. With that said, this race also demonstrates an early season problem for the 24 team. Of the 167 laps Byron led, only 15 came during the final stage. Byron’s early speed faded a bit while Kyle Larson had the car to beat late in the race.
A caution with 4 laps to go for Aric Almirola allowed Byron to make the overtime pass on Larson to win the race. William Byron’s pit crew beats Larson’s to win the race off pit road. With Martin Truex Jr staying out, Larson is stuck in the second row on the restart. Without the caution, this race goes to Larson. Byron and his team won it, but this race starts the trend.
Phoenix
Perhaps an important foreshadowing for the Championship Four, William Byron went back to back to win at Phoenix. While he won, Byron once again saw his car drive well early in the race to fade later. To be clear, this “fading” meant Byron ran third to fifth rather than leading. However, Byron led 64 laps at Phoenix. All but 2 of those laps were in the first stage. By the end of the race, Byron was clearly slower than Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick.
With 11 laps to go, Harvick’s 5 second lead over Kyle Larson vanished due to a Harrison Burton caution. At the time of the caution, William Bryon was running fourth. A two tire call got Byron up to second on the last two restarts. Byron outdrove Larson on the final restart to win the race. Once again, a caution puts Byron in a position to win but he capitalizes on it fully to win the race.
Darlington
Unlike the first two wins, Darlington was not a race where William Byron led early and faded late. Instead, Byron ran Top-5 all day. He had a fast car but not a race winning one. Once again, late cautions played a factor and Byron wound up in the lead for the last restart. Martin Truex Jr took himself out trying to do a slide job in Turns 1 and 2. Ross Chastain took himself and Kyle Larson out on another restart. That left William Byron as the last of the fast cars remaining. On the final restart, Byron’s front row companion Kevin Harvick did not have the car to compete for the win. In total, William Byron led 7 laps this race. All of them coming after the Chastain/Larson wreck.
Atlanta
William Byron bounced back from an early spin in this race to take the lead with the looming threat of rain. Once he took the lead on lap 167, he never relinquished it. Byron has won at the newly reconfigured Atlanta before, so it would be unfair to say this win was a fluke. However, the rain shortened win does not bolster his dominance case.
Watkins Glen
Watkins Glen is the one exception to his wins feeling lucky. Byron dominated once he took the lead after Stage 1. He led 73.3% of the laps on the day, including running 22 of the fastest laps of the race. With this win, Byron snapped a cold streak he went on over the summer between Atlanta and Watkin Glen. Between the two wins, Byron averaged a 21.6 finish in 5 races. His best finish during that stretch was fourteenth.
Texas
Out of all his wins, this one feels the most like a fluke. Prior to the final restart chaos, William Byron was not in contention for the win. On the day, he averaged a thirteenth running position during the race. Byron only spent 53.56% of his laps within the Top-15, the lowest in any of his wins except Atlanta. As mentioned in this week’s power rankings, Byron likely finishes outside the Top-10 if not for the JJ Yeley caution.
Once again, you cannot blame William Byron for succeeding when opportunity arrives. It is a credit to the driver and team that he has been able to capitalize on these situations to win. Winning is important in NASCAR, especially with the current playoff format. With that said, you would like to see more than one of these wins not have luck play into the result.
The Competition
If not William Byron, then who else?
Denny Hamlin
Most people will point to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson as the two championship favorites right now. Hamlin, who has three wins on the season, is the hottest driver in the Cup Series right now. The first four races of the playoffs saw Hamlin with race winning speed. If not for a loose tire issue at Darlington, it is likely Hamlin has four straight Top-5s to kick off the playoffs. While Hamlin does have miscues at times, the team seems to be avoiding those more lately.
Kyle Larson
Meanwhile, Kyle Larson has been right there in terms of speed as well. He had Top-5s in each of the first round races in the playoffs. If not for getting loose under Bubba Wallace at Texas, he too would likely have four straight Top-5s. In terms of a championship favorite, Larson has to survive Talladega and the ROVAL. Whether Larson has a chance to make the Championship Four is yet to be seen. Under the assumption that Larson punches his ticket to the Round of 8, the odds of him advancing from there are solid.
Martin Truex Jr
After those two, who would rank ahead of William Byron as a championship favorite? Before the playoffs began, Martin Truex Jr might have been an obvious one to bet on. From Bristol Dirt until Daytona, Truex won three times, collected 9 Top-5s, and averaged a 9.7 finish. If not for three bad races (DNF at Darlington, Chicago madness, and Atlanta rain), that 18 race stretch would look more impressive. However, since clinching the regular season title during Daytona, Truex’s best finish is seventeenth. While this team could easily turn it around, who has confidence of them doing so with Talladega upcoming?
Kyle Busch
The other two 3-race winners this season are Kyle Busch and Chris Buescher. Busch seems tied to an anchor right now. Since Atlanta, Busch has six races of twentieth or worst. At the time of this writing, Busch sits 17 points under the cutline. With how this season has gone, it seems unlikely that Busch will advance to the next round.
Chris Buescher
Meanwhile, there is Chris Beuscher. Buescher has been gaining momentum during the second half of this season. In the past 15 races, his average finish is 9.93. Although he has two outside Top-10s in the playoffs, both races saw Buescher running inside the Top-10 most of each race. At Kansas, Buescher blew a tire late to finish in the back. As for Texas, Buescher’s two tire stop put him in traffic and he was unable to move forward. A potential Top-5 turned into fourteenth.
Could Buescher be considered a better favorite than Byron? Probably not, especially considering the Round of 8 tracks plus Phoenix. Buescher’s runs at Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Martinsville earlier this season does not preview well for the last four races. Although RFK Racing has been better lately compared to earlier this year, Byron still has the edge on Buescher.
Is William Byron a Championship Favorite?
Should William Byron be a championship favorite? Yes. Despite some recent trends, Byron’s numbers are strong. Plus, he has a victory at each track in the final four races with Homestead the only track where that win came with the previous car. One thing to consider about Byron for the Round of 8 as well is that his “bad” races never turn disastrous. Even considering the dip in speed from the first 15 races, his second 15 races has a better average finish.
Byron’s six wins might have some luck associated with them, but Byron still had to drive his way to victory. Byron’s move at Texas was aggressive, but he made it stick and held onto the victory. If Byron does not go for the win into Turn 3, Chase Briscoe or Bubba Wallace win that race. Byron might be the ultimate opportunist this year, but that type of driver can win the championship.
Should William Byron be the championship favorite? No. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have simply looked stronger over the course of the season. Results are important, but pure speed is also there and Byron has lacked it at times compared to the other two. However, Byron is firmly slotted into that third spot right now.
