This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Bristol Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Christopher Bell (8th))
-17 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-Only 3 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-11 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Alex Bowman
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 7th -5 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 13th -9 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 14th -9 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -2 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +6 |
| 9. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 29th -20 |
| 10. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th -10 |
| 11. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -21 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 4th +10 |
| 15. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 27th -12 |
| 16. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 19th -3 |
| 17. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 22nd -5 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 23rd -5 |
| 19. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 12th +7 |
| 20. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 6th +14 |
| 21. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 18th +3 |
| 22. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th -8 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 10th +13 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 17th +7 |
| 25. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +15 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 51 | Ryan Newman | 36th -8 |
| 29. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 21st +8 |
| 30. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 16th +14 |
| 31. | 31 | Justin Haley | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 32nd +1 |
| 34. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 26th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
