This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Texas Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last week:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st, Christopher Bell 3rd, Corey LaJoie 25th)
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-Only 10 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Erik Jones
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th-3 |
| 3. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 34th -31 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 31st -27 |
| 5. | 43 | Erik Jones | 30th -25 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 3rd +3 |
| 7. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 25th -18 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 21st -13 |
| 9. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 17th -8 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 28th -17 |
| 12. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 29th -17 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 7th +7 |
| 15. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 6th +10 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 12th +5 |
| 18. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 8th +12 |
| 21. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 15th +6 |
| 22. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 33rd -11 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 36th -13 |
| 24. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 9th +15 |
| 25. | 31 | Justin Haley | 13th +12 |
| 26. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 16th +10 |
| 27. | 38 | Zane Smith | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 10th +18 |
| 29. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 23rd +9 |
| 33. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 19th +14 |
| 34. | 51 | Todd Gilliland | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 32nd +4 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
