Talladega is the last superspeedway race of the 2023 season. With this, the Cup Series teams are going all out for the Yellawood 500… with Talladega Nights references and callbacks. Stewart-Haas Racing is leading the charge with Ryan Preece donning Ricky Bobby’s Wonder Bread paint scheme. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe is the Old Spice man, Cal Naughton. If you are not following SHR, Chase Briscoe, or Ryan Preece on social media, please do so now. Other teams have participated in the fun, such as Front Row Motorsports recreating the Step Brothers poster with Todd Gilliland and Michael McDowell. The always energetic RFK Racing social media accounts have been dropping Talladega Nights movie references all week as well. Also, Sunday marks the second race of the Round of 12.
For the on-track action, the Yellawood 500 is a looming threat to the playoff drivers. This should be the chaotic race of the round, as superspeedway racing can turn the leader into a DNF in one move. When examining the playoff field, there is a split among the drivers in terms on how to feel heading into the Yellawood 500. William Byron is the only driver sitting relaxed, as his win last week has him clinched to the Round of 8. The remaining eleven drivers will attempt to balance the fight for stage points with staying out of harm’s way. The word of the day will be survival. While some drivers might see this as their best opportunity to win and advance, others will hope to leave Talladega in decent points shape for the ROVAL.
Other than Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe, who will be the five drivers to watch this Sunday? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kyle Larson
Last week, one turn altered Kyle Larson’s perspective heading into Talladega. After leading the second most laps and seemingly heading to victory, Larson spun and wrecked out at Texas while battling for the lead. Instead of having (at least) a secure points margin to the cutline, Larson heads into the Yellawood 500 only two points above the cutline. With his historically bad luck at superspeedways, Larson could be in danger of finding himself in a precarious spot at the ROVAL.
Kyle Larson only has eight Top-10s in forty superspeedway starts. In eighteen of those starts, Larson did not finish the race. Almost half of Larson’s superspeedways starts has seen the driver sitting in the garage when the checkered flag has waved. As for Talladega, it is the only superspeedway track that Larson has a Top-5. However, he also has a worse average finish here compared to Daytona. Bottom line, Larson is not a fan of superspeedways.
With his points position in mind, Kyle Larson has to figure out a way to survive until the end of the race. Speed is not the issue with Larson at these tracks. The big question will be whether he takes advantage of that speed for stage racing or rides in the back. Both come with significant risk, especially since all four drivers below the cutline are aggressive at superspeedways who will be in the hunt for stage points.
Martin Truex Jr
From one driver who struggles at superspeedways to another, Martin Truex Jr has been having a miserable playoff run. Texas was his best race so far in the playoffs, yet he still only managed a seventeenth place finish. Luckily, his collection of playoff points from the regular season has him nineteen points above the cutline. Truex has more wiggle room than Larson does. Plus, Truex is a bit better at the superspeedway racing than Larson. Unfortunately, Truex’s best superspeedway runs usually come at Daytona.
The goal is simple for Martin Truex Jr: have a clean weekend. With his points position, Truex can feel more comfortable attempting to avoid trouble this weekend. Surviving until the end might be a net positive for Truex in the points. At Daytona in the summer, Truex won the first stage then rode around mid-pack. Whether Truex attempted to climb his way back forward by the end of the race might be a question though. Truex has utilized the ride around back strategy at superspeedways before. With this NextGen car and aero package, it is difficult to drive through the field. What strategy play will Martin Truex Jr pull at Talladega?
Riley Herbst
In the most shocking news of the week, Riley Herbst will be piloting a white Monster Energy scheme for Talladega. While the hood is still black, the main color of the scheme is white. Truly shocking indeed.
Riley Herbst will be making his fourth Cup Series start of the year in Front Row Motorsport’s 36 car. This will be his first start since the summer Daytona race. Herbst demonstrated strong drafting capability along with naivety when racing with veterans like Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. After a strong qualifying effort, Herbst led the outside line heading to the Stage 1 caution. Harvick was able to slip around Herbst, who was then stuck in the dreaded middle of three wide (with no help). Despite that blunder, Herbst managed to run at the front of the lead pack during Stage 2. Unfortunately for Herbst, he was caught up in the wreck at the end of Stage 2.
Based on superspeedway results this race, Herbst could be a dark horse candidate for the win. Talladega has seen a fair share of surprise winners. With Herbst (or any of his teammates) not in playoff contention, there is nothing holding him back from being the driver to win? Could there be an upset at the Yellawood 500?
Brad Keselowski
This race has probably been circled on Brad Keselowski’s calendar since he made the playoffs. While RFK Racing has shown race winning speed at non-superspeedways, Talladega is Keselowski’s best track. Plus, the RFK duo have been dominant when linked together on superspeedways. Keselowski is still chasing his first win as an owner/driver in the Cup Series. Talladega would be a fitting place for that to happen.
The six-time winner at the Alabama superspeedway would also punch his ticket into the Round of 8. Currently, Keselowski sits eight points above the cutline. Winning at Talladega would alleviate any pressure heading into the ROVAL. While Watkins Glen was an improvement, Keselowski has struggled with road course racing in the NextGen car. In order for Keselowski to feel confident heading into next week, he must be in a great points position. For the Yellawood 500, expect the betting favorite to be aggressive throughout the race. Keselowski will look to pull the clean sweep of the stages and claim the race win.
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell enters Talladega with a twenty point cushion to the cutline. He is coming off back to back Top-5s, although Texas was a struggle to get there. While the 20 team has shown good speed thus far in the playoffs, they keep stepping on rakes. Bristol was their cleanest race, yet a slow pitstop saw them lose the lead and never recover. With the lingering issue of sloppy performance, Talladega is not the ideal track to head to, especially considering Bell is gaining a poor reputation on the superspeedways.
At Daytona, the end of Stage 2 wreck was sparked by a poor push from Christopher Bell. Bell pushed Ty Gibbs in the middle of the corner and not flush with his back bumper. Luckily for Bell, he was able to avoid getting caught up in the wreck, which also tends to be a trend. In his nineteen superspeedway starts, Bell has only five DNFs. Only one of those DNFs have come at Talladega too. With Bell’s aggressive drafting style, he will be one to watch to see if he causes chaos. Some playoff drivers (specifically Ryan Blaney) might look to avoid running around Bell during the early portions of the race.
