Monday, November 25, 2024
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Talladega

This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Talladega Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 1st

Additional notes from last week:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 1st, Aric Almirola 18th)
-Only 12 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of  the 36 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the Top 16 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 16

Notable results this week

Winner: Brad Keselowski
One to Watch: Aric Almirola
Disappointment: Kyle Larson

Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff

 

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 6 Brad Keselowski 32nd -31
2. 12 Ryan Blaney 1st +1
3. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22nd -19
4. 22 Joey Logano 24th -20
5. 11 Denny Hamlin 3rd +2
6. 9 Chase Elliott 7th -1
7. 8 Kyle Busch 25th -18
8. 10 Aric Almirola 17th -9
9. 4 Kevin Harvick 38th -29
10. 17 Chris Buescher 19th -9
11. 20 Christopher Bell 14th -3
12. 24 William Byron 2nd +10
13. 38 Todd Gilliland 12th +1
14. 77 Ty Dillon 27th -13
15. 99 Daniel Suarez 10th +5
16. 48 Alex Bowman 28th -12
17. 14 Chase Briscoe 13th +4
18. 2 Austin Cindric 5th +13
19. 43 Erik Jones 26th -7
20. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 20th +0
21. 7 Corey LaJoie 4th +17
22. 1 Ross Chastain 37th -15
23. 31 Justin Haley 6th +17
24. 13 Chandler Smith 11th +13
25. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 18th +7
26. 23 Bubba Wallace 23rd +3
27. 45 Tyler Reddick 16th +11
28. 42 Carson Hocevar 35th -7
29. 41 Ryan Preece 8th +21
30. 51 J.J. Yeley 36th -6
31. 36 Riley Herbst 9th +22
32. 3 Austin Dillon 33rd -1
33. 34 Michael McDowell 21st +12
34. 5 Kyle Larson 15th +19
35. 54 Ty Gibbs 34th +1
36. 15 Brennan Poole 30th +6
37. 78 B.J. McLeod 29th +8
38. 21 Harrison Burton 31st +7

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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