The Round of 8 is now set for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. After the ROVAL, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain were eliminated from championship contention. Now, the eight remaining drivers shift their focus to Las Vegas. For these drivers, this will be the most important race of the season. With a win at Las Vegas, one of them will lock themselves into the championship race at Phoenix. If that win happens on Sunday, then the next two weeks are completely meaningless for them. Outside of appeasing the sponsors, there is absolutely nothing to gain in the following two races. That is a problem.
Since the introduction of the elimination format in 2014, four drivers who have won the first round of the Round of 8 have gone on to win the championship. This includes the past two seasons, with Joey Logano and Kyle Larson pulling off the feat. Jimmie Johnson was the first to pull this off in 2016. Since Johnson did it in 2016, the worst the winning driver of this race has finished in the championship race is third (Logano – 2020). Every other driver has either won or finished second. Clearly, there is a massive advantage to winning the opening race of the final three race round.
Unique to NASCAR
The introduction of the elimination format of the playoffs was clearly an attempt to replicate how every other American sports league does their playoffs. Obviously, the entire idea of a playoff in NASCAR is going to be unique. Unlike other sports, NASCAR is not going to tell the 20 drivers/teams who missed the playoffs to stay away from the track. The championship race will not only have four or five (owner playoffs) cars running at Phoenix. As the commentators say at nauseum throughout the playoffs, the playoff drivers have to contend with non-playoff driver. At the ROVAL, AJ Allmendinger won over two playoffs drivers, one who needed the win to advance to the Round of 8.
Another unique thing about the playoffs for NASCAR is that a clinching driver/team is still forced to continue to participant. In the MLB, if a team wins the first three games of the Divisional Series, that team is not obligated to play Games 4 and 5. In NASCAR though, clinching advancement via win in the opening race of the round does not give the team a rest until the next round. For the Rounds of 16 and 12, there is still something to race for though. Securing another win or stage wins gives more playoff points for the following round. That is something worth racing for in those two races. However, that cannot be said for the Round of 8.
What is the Point?
If a driver is clinched after winning Las Vegas this weekend, what is the competitive point of focusing on the next two races? Especially considering how rough Martinsville can be on drivers, there is no reason to push yourself for a win if it does not benefit you. While the spirit of competition is still there, the logical sense is to primarily focus on Phoenix rather than Homestead or Martinsville.
Playoff points do not transfer to the championship race. Winning a stage or race does not give a driver a boost in the championship race. No matter what happens in the Round of 8, it does not apply in the season finale. For the four drivers in the Championship Four, the points reset. Each driver enters Phoenix with the same amount of points. A driver could sweep the three races in the Round of 8, but it would not matter.
With the elimination format, only one driver has won multiple races in the Round of 8 (Larson – 2021). In that same time, there has been multiple time winners seven times in the other two rounds. The average finish for the opening race winner in the next two races is 12.1. Breaking that down further, the average finish in the second race is 9.1. Meanwhile, the average for the elimination race is 14.6. Clearly, there is less urgency out of these drivers.
Understanding NASCAR
Why would NASCAR allow that incentive structure to be in place? That answer is pretty straight forward. NASCAR wants the championship race to be like the championship game/series in any other sport. In every other sport with a playoff, each competitor is on equal footing. The only advantage one competitor might have is home-field advantage. Other than that, it is a straight up game/series to determine a championship. One competitor could have dominated their way to the championship while the other is an underdog. Does not matter, each competitor has (in theory) the same opportunity to win.
In NASCAR, this means that the points reset. The four drivers enter Phoenix on the same level. No stage points matter during the race either, so the champion will be decided in a simple manner: who finishes best. It is easy to understand and follow for any fans who tune in that have not followed the rest of the season.
On top of that, NASCAR also does not want the championship to be essentially locked up before the race begins. If drivers carried playoff points from the previous 35 races, then there could be a scenario where not every Championship Four driver has a chance. Imagine if playoff points carried over and Bubba Wallace made the Championship Four this year along with William Byron. Byron has 45 playoff points, Bubba would have zero. Without stage points, there is no possible way for Wallace to win the championship. This is what NASCAR is trying to avoid.
Fixing the Round of 8
In an ideal world, the fix would be to either get rid of the playoffs proper or create a championship round instead of a one race showdown. While NASCAR wants to mimic the Big Four American sports, the style of the sport more resembles the Premier League Soccer where a champion should be crowned based on overall performance at the end of a grueling season.
Since that is not an option, the fix to the glaring Round of 8 issue could be simple: allow playoff points to transfer. If there are still playoff points worth grabbing, the winner of the opening race will have incentive to be aggressive. As the format is now, why would a driver tear up equipment going after a meaningless win (when compared to championship)? While teams usually start setup three weeks in advance, drivers who win the opening race have the distinct advantage of laser focus on the championship race. Every bit of strategy, planning, and training will shift to Phoenix rather than Homestead/Martinsville.
Sure, if you allow the playoff points to advance, a driver might have a massive lead. Sometimes, a driver will dominate and run away with the championship. That is okay. Game 7 moments are special because they are rare. NASCAR is forcing drama each year and it dilutes the product. Creating drama is not the same as allowing sports to happen. The 1992 finale was special because it was a rarity. When something like that happens naturally, it feels more special than any championship race will.
Plus for NASCAR fans, keeping track of points as they run is part of the fun. That is the best part of the elimination races. NASCAR fans do not need the winner of the finale being the championship winner. Since 2014, every champion won the Championship Four race. With how competitive the Cup Series is, that should not happen. Most years? Sure. But every year? That feels wrong, especially remembering last year with Ryan Blaney/Joey Logano. However, if NASCAR allows playoff points to transfer, it could fix two issues at once. With various points positions, perhaps the competition can be more true in the finale. Also, it gives the clinched drivers something to race for in the final six stages of the Round of 8.
