Silly season is still in full force. So far this year we have seen Zane Smith sign a multiyear contract with Trackhouse, Carson Hocevar sign with Spire, and Hailie Deegan sign a multiyear deal with AM Racing to run Xfinity. Furthermore, we learned that Josh Berry will be replacing the retiring legend, Kevin Harvick in the #4 car. We have almost run out of things to speculate upon for the 2024 season.
There is one situation in which we have been met with utter silence. Of course, the situation of which I write is the situation regarding the Stewart-Haas #10 car. Aric Almirola has not yet announced his retirement or lack thereof. This significantly complicates our understanding of the Stewart-Haas lineup for the 2024 season. Despite the team’s struggles, the 10 car is a major ride for anyone involved in this silly season.
We know that Ryan Preece will be in the #41 car. Also, we know that Chase Briscoe is going to be back in the #14 car. Finally, we know that Josh Berry will be driving the #4 car. Furthermore, Rodney Childers will be back with the #4 team as crew chief. The only question left at Stewart-Haas for 2024, is who will be in the #10 car.
Noah Gragson
Recently, Bob Pockrass (of Fox Sports) linked Noah Gragson to the #10 car in 2024. Even prior to Gragson losing his ride and having to report to sensitivity training for liking a meme on social media, Griffin Fuller (of Pit Pass Network) questioned whether or not Legacy Motor Club should replace him. Robert Cwick (also of Pit Pass Network) gave Gragson a D grade for his overall performance in 20 of 21 races.
In the 20 cup races in which Gragson competed in 2023, he only had two top 20 finishes. First, Gragson finished 12th at Atlanta (his best finish.) Second, the very next week at COTA, Gragson finished 20th. Meanwhile, Erik Jones (driver of the #43 Legacy Chevy) has finished in the top 10 seven times in 2023. Jones also finished third in the recent playoff race at Kansas. On the other hand, Gragson’s biggest highlight of the year was his altercation with Ross Chastain.
You get the picture. Noah Gragson’s rookie year has not gone as well as some had hoped. Still, much like last season, I’m sure that Stewart-Haas is trying to convince Aric Almirola to stick around, in order to keep Smithfield around. Eventually, Almirola is going to retire. He already stuck around longer than he desired. While Gragson’s 2023 season has not gone according to plan, he clearly has talent. If you don’t believe that, check out his 2022 Xfinity Series performance. Gragson may be the best option for Stewart-Haas moving forward. It would be a shame to miss out on the opportunity. Finally, no one wants to see a driver not get a decent second chance. Stewart-Haas is a team that doesn’t mind giving second chances.
In House Promotion from Xfinity to Cup?
The Monster is back.@rileyherbst returns to the No. 98 Ford Mustang for 2024. pic.twitter.com/QlKZJvIhlz
— Stewart-Haas Racing (@StewartHaasRcng) October 12, 2023
As of October 12, 2023, we know that Riley Herbst will return to the #98 Xfinity series Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing. Herbst competed in 4 cup series races so far in 2023. He competed in both races at Daytona and both races at Talladega. In the first two events Herbst drove Rick Ware Racing’s #15 car. Herbst grabbed a top 10 finish in the Daytona 500. In the last two cup events, Herbst drove the #36 for Front Row Motorsports. He was able to grab a 9th place finish at Talladega, and nearly pushed Kevin Harvick to victory prior to getting spun (and the #4 getting disqualified.)
Clearly, with the news Herbst is returning to the 98 Xfinity car for 2024, we know it won’t be Herbst being promoted. What about Cole Custer? In three seasons of Cup, racing the #41 for SHR, Custer finished in the top 10 a total of twelve times. Two of these top 10s were in the top 5. One of those top 5s was a win in his rookie season at Kentucky Speedway. Custer was demoted from the #41 cup car to the #00 Xfinity car for the 2023 season.
Custer’s 2023 season has been successful. In the 29 races so far this season, Custer finished in the top 10 nineteen times. Furthermore, Custer finished in the top 5 twelve times. Finally, he has two wins this season, and is still alive in the Xfinity series playoffs. It would be hard to say that Custer has not proven that he is a capable race car driver.
Aric Almirola Returns (Again)?
There is always the possibility of Aric Almirola returning. Almirola originally wanted to retire at the end of last season but was talked into staying on. Beyond the Flag reports that it is generally believed that Almirola will retire at the end of this season. Still here we are with now only four races remaining in this season, and nothing has been announced.
With Busch Light leaving Stewart-Haas at the end of the season, I could see how it would be preferable to convince Almirola to stick around at least another year. Almirola and Smithfield are close. Smithfield has sponsored Almirola for his entire time in the #10 car. Their relationship even goes back prior to Almirola being at SHR. If Almirola retires, it is very possible that Smithfield doesn’t return as a sponsor.
Still, having said all that, sponsorship is about the only reason I can see for Stewart-Haas to keep Almirola around. First, he wanted to retire last year. Second, except for a couple pole positions this year, his performance continues to drop. With four races left in 2023, he would have to place in the top 10 in each of these races to match his number of top 10 finishes in 2022. Even if Almirola were to pull that off, he’d only have 7 top 10 finishes. On the other hand, it could be rather difficult for Stewart-Haas to lose both of their veteran drivers at the end of this season.
Other Possibilities and Final Thoughts
Sheldon Creed has announced that he will not be returning to RCR next season; however, Creed is a Chevy development driver. I do not see him getting a promotion to cup in 2024. While there are rumors of Stewart-Haas switching manufacturers at the end of next season, the timing isn’t right here. Jenson Button has also been mentioned as a possible replacement for Almirola for various reasons. Then again, not that long ago, it was rumored that Stewart-Haas could be selling two charters. While we now know that they won’t be selling two charters, it’s possible they could sell one.
Honestly, selling the #10 charter might just be the best option for Stewart-Haas. The team hasn’t performed at the level they did in the mid to late 2010s and in 2020. Perhaps, downsizing their cup entries to three, might be best. Once Kevin Harvick is retired, it’s hard to even assume they will necessarily compete for wins on any sort of a regular basis. I’m sure the #4 team will continue to be the top car there, as long as they have crew chief Rodney Childers. Berry performed well as a substitute cup driver earlier this year.
At the same time, it would be nice to see Noah Gragson get a second chance rather quickly. It’s difficult to see someone lose their ride by clicking the like button on a distasteful meme on social media, but such are the times in which we live. Cole Custer has perhaps earned a second chance with his Xfinity performance, but it would be hard to take Custer from his successful Xfinity team and put him right back in the hot seat of a struggling cup team. Ultimately, we’re all waiting on Aric Almirola’s decision.
