This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Las Vegas Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: A.J. Allmendinger
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last week:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected (only 2nd time since I started this in June)
-10 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-Only 4 of the 37 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the Top 10 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 10
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 7th -6 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 8th -5 |
| 4. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 9th -5 |
| 5. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 13th -6 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th -2 |
| 10. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 10th +1 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th +6 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 32nd -19 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 4th +10 |
| 15. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 35th -19 |
| 17. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 18th -1 |
| 18. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -16 |
| 19. | 10 | Aric Almriola | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25th -5 |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 21st +0 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 15th +7 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 28th -5 |
| 24. | 31 | Justin Haley | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 33rd -6 |
| 28. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 36th -8 |
| 29. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 19th +13 |
| 33. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 24th +9 |
| 34. | 51 | J.J. Yeley | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 31st +4 |
| 36. | 15 | Brennan Poole | 30th +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
