At Las Vegas Kyle Larson became the first driver to clinch a Championship 4 birth as he held off Christopher Bell just enough to win. This week we go to a track where the high line won’t just work, it will be the preferred line around the track, Homestead. I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 4 based on the playoff bubble, 1 based on 2023 playoff stats, 1 based on Intermediate stats, 1 based on the last Homestead race, and 1 based on their overall Homestead stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 and ranking through 33 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight the 2023 Playoff stats, notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2023 Intermediate (1.3-1.5 mile) statistics and Homestead statistics.
P = Playoff Driver
OP = Owner Playoff Driver
1st in Points – Kyle Larson (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 14.67 | 9th of 35 | T191st of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.27% | 22nd of 35 | T307th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 72.42% | 3rd of 35 | 117th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.01 | 3rd of 35 | 106th of 773‡ |
| Wins | 4 | 2nd of 63 | T36th of 1408 |
| Poles | 2 | T4th of 63 | T68th of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 7 | T2nd of 63 | T41st of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 8 | T3rd of 63 | T63rd of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 14 | 1st of 63 | T33rd of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 16 | T5th of 63 | T146th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 7 | 34th of 35 | T688th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 7 | T2nd of 63 | T15th of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 41 | 3rd of 63 | T31st of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 259 | 3rd of 63 | 26th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 27 | 2nd of 63 | T14th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 9.57(2nd), 86.52% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 112.8(1st), Best 1st, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 99.03%, Led 20.9% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 4 Stage Wins, 11 Stage T10’s, 6.14 Stage Pts Per Stage, 14 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 10.67(T4th), 90.98% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 113.98(1st), Best 1st, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 98.45%, Led 21.2% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 4 Top 3’s, 6 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 4 Stage Wins, 5.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 1st, Started 5th, Led 199 laps (74.53%), Finished 1st in Stage 1 and 1st in Stage 2, ran 267 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 150.0 Driver Rating (ranked 1st)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 9 Races
- 10.67 Avg. Finish (Ranks 5th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 40th
- Completed 97.59% of laps (% ranks 26th)
- 84.44% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 3rd)
- 112.78 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 22.55% of laps he’s run (% ranks 1st)
- 1 Win, 11.11% (% ranks T3rd)
- 3 Top 3’s, 33.33% (% ranks T2nd)
- 5 Top 10’s, 55.56% (% ranks 2nd)
- 8 Top 15’s, 88.89% (% ranks T2nd)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 11.11% (% ranks T6th)
- 1 DNF, 11.11% (% ranks T30th)
- 5 Stage Wins, 50.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 10 Stage T10’s, 100% (% ranks 1st)
- 8.7 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his 2023 playoff stats
– Larson dominated at Las Vegas running all but 1 lap in the Top 15, leading 50% of the race, and holding off Christopher Bell for the win
– His longest Top 10 streak this year is only 4 races long
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 96.01 Avg. Driver Rating, 4 Wins, 14 Top 5’s, 7 Stage Wins, and 259 Stage Pts
– Only 12.5% of his 16 Top 10’s have been finishes between 6th and 10th
– He has the 2nd best Avg. Finish (9.57) and the best Avg. Driver Rating (112.8) in the 7 playoff races
– In the 7 races he’s ran 86.52% of his laps in the Top 15, led 21% of his laps, has 2 Wins, and 4 Stage Wins
– At Intermediates this year he has a 10.67 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 4 Top 3’s, and 6 Top 5’s in 9 races
– He’s ran 91% of his laps in the 9 races in the Top 15, has the best Avg. Driver Rating (113.98), and has gotten 5.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last year at Homestead Larson dominated leading 75% of the race, getting a perfect Driver Rating (150.0), and finishing 1st in all 3 stages
– In 9 career races at Homestead he has 1 Win, 5 Top 10’s, and his only finish out of the Top 15 was a DNF
– His 112.78 Avg. Driver Rating, 22.55 Laps Led%, 50.0 Stage Win%, 100.0 Stage T10%, and 8.7 Stage Pts Per Stage are all best among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Larson is on to the Championship 4 and his 2023 overall stats say he more than deserves this spot. In the playoffs Larson has been pretty darn good as well, but what’s even better are his Intermediate stats. However, the best news is that this week is Homestead where his stats are some of the best of any active driver. All of these great stats tell me that even with a win in the bag Larson will finish Top 5 and be in contention for the win if nothing goes awry.
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his 2023 playoff stats
– Larson dominated at Las Vegas running all but 1 lap in the Top 15, leading 50% of the race, and holding off Christopher Bell for the win
– His longest Top 10 streak this year is only 4 races long
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 96.01 Avg. Driver Rating, 4 Wins, 14 Top 5’s, 7 Stage Wins, and 259 Stage Pts
– Only 12.5% of his 16 Top 10’s have been finishes between 6th and 10th
– He has the 2nd best Avg. Finish (9.57) and the best Avg. Driver Rating (112.8) in the 7 playoff races
– In the 7 races he’s ran 86.52% of his laps in the Top 15, led 21% of his laps, has 2 Wins, and 4 Stage Wins
– At Intermediates this year he has a 10.67 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 4 Top 3’s, and 6 Top 5’s in 9 races
– He’s ran 91% of his laps in the 9 races in the Top 15, has the best Avg. Driver Rating (113.98), and has gotten 5.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last year at Homestead Larson dominated leading 75% of the race, getting a perfect Driver Rating (150.0), and finishing 1st in all 3 stages
– In 9 career races at Homestead he has 1 Win, 5 Top 10’s, and his only finish out of the Top 15 was a DNF
– His 112.78 Avg. Driver Rating, 22.55 Laps Led%, 50.0 Stage Win%, 100.0 Stage T10%, and 8.7 Stage Pts Per Stage are all best among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Larson is on to the Championship 4 and his 2023 overall stats say he more than deserves this spot. In the playoffs Larson has been pretty darn good as well, but what’s even better are his Intermediate stats. However, the best news is that this week is Homestead where his stats are some of the best of any active driver. All of these great stats tell me that even with a win in the bag Larson will finish Top 5 and be in contention for the win if nothing goes awry.
2nd in Points – William Byron (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.33 | 1st of 35 | T44th of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.14% | 15th of 35 | T230th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 74.19% | 2nd of 35 | 97th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 98.37 | 1st of 35 | 72nd of 773‡ |
| Wins | 6 | 1st of 63 | T14th of 1408 |
| Poles | 3 | 3rd of 63 | T36th of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 9 | 1st of 63 | T19th of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 10 | T1st of 63 | T33rd of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 13 | T2nd of 63 | T46th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 19 | 1st of 63 | T59th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T6th of 35 | T254th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 8 | 1st of 63 | T11th of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 40 | T4th of 63 | T34th of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 278 | 2nd of 63 | T18th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 38 | 1st of 63 | 9th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 5.71(1st), 79.35% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 99.89(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 15th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.97% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 8 Stage T10’s, 3.36 Stage Pts Per Stage, 5 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Wins (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 2 finishes (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 5 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 4.44(1st), 80.79% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 111.2(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 15th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 10.95% of laps he ran, 3 Wins, 1 Pole, 5 Top 3’s, 6 Top 5’s, 8 Top 10’s, 9 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 3 Stage Wins, 4.74 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 12th, Started 1st, Led 32 laps (11.99%), Finished 2nd in Stage 1 and 3rd in Stage 2, ran 221 Laps in Top15 (82.77% of laps he ran), had 110.2 Driver Rating (ranked 3rd)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 17.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 15th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 39th
- Completed 96.03% of laps (% ranks 36th)
- 71.14% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 8th)
- 95.76 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 6th)
- Led 10.45% of laps he’s run (% ranks 2nd)
- 1 Win, 20.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 1 Pole, 20.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 1 Top 5, 20.0% (% ranks 12th)
- 2 Top 10’s, 40.0% (% ranks T11th)
- 3 Top 15’s, 60.0% (% ranks T12th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 40.0% (% ranks 18th)
- 1 DNF, 20.0% (% ranks 38th)
- 1 Stage Win, 10.0% (% ranks 3rd)
- 7 Stage T10’s, 70.0% (% ranks 4th)
- 4.6 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 2nd)
Main Points & Outlook
– William Byron is notable because of his incredible 2023 Intermediate stats and because he’s only 9 points above the driver cutline
– Byron was one of two drivers to run all 267 laps in the Top 15 last week and in the end he came home with his 19th Top 10 of the year, finishing 7th
– This broke his 3 race Top 3 finish streak, but he has now finished 4 straight races inside the Top 10
– His 11.33 Avg. Finish, 98.37 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Wins, 9 Top 2’s, 19 Top 10’s, 8 Stage Wins, and 38 Playoff Pts are all 1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– His only 2023 Ranks above that are worse than 3rd are his 40 Stage T10’s, 3 DNF’s, and 97.14 Completed Laps%
– In the 7 playoff races he has the best Avg. Finish (5.71), 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and a worst finish of 15th
– He’s ran 79% of his playoffs laps in the Top 15, led just 1% of his laps, and has just 8 Stage T10’s in 14 stages
– He has the best Avg. Finish (4.44) and the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (111.2) in the 9 Intermediate races this year
– In the 9 races he’s ran 81% of his laps in the Top 15, led 11% of his laps, and has 4.74 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last year at Homestead Byron ran just 83% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 12th, but he had the 3rd best Driver Rating (110.2) and led 12% of his laps
– In 5 career Homestead races he has just 1 Top 5 (a Win) and as many Top 10 finishes as he does finishes out of the Top 20 (2)
– He’s only ran 71% of his career laps at Homestead in the Top 15, but does have 4.6 Stage Pts Per Stage and has led 10.45% of his laps here
Outlook for this weekend
Byron left Las Vegas with lots of points, but unfortunately he’s still only 9 above the cutline. His 2023 Ranks say he’s been the best driver this year and his playoffs have continued to his great season. What’s more is that his Intermediate stats this year are incredible and the best of anyone. However, this is Homestead where he’s struggled in his career, except for 1 race. This year he’s just been so good though, which is why I see Byron finishing 1st-6th this weekend.
– William Byron is notable because of his incredible 2023 Intermediate stats and because he’s only 9 points above the driver cutline
– Byron was one of two drivers to run all 267 laps in the Top 15 last week and in the end he came home with his 19th Top 10 of the year, finishing 7th
– This broke his 3 race Top 3 finish streak, but he has now finished 4 straight races inside the Top 10
– His 11.33 Avg. Finish, 98.37 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Wins, 9 Top 2’s, 19 Top 10’s, 8 Stage Wins, and 38 Playoff Pts are all 1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– His only 2023 Ranks above that are worse than 3rd are his 40 Stage T10’s, 3 DNF’s, and 97.14 Completed Laps%
– In the 7 playoff races he has the best Avg. Finish (5.71), 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and a worst finish of 15th
– He’s ran 79% of his playoffs laps in the Top 15, led just 1% of his laps, and has just 8 Stage T10’s in 14 stages
– He has the best Avg. Finish (4.44) and the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (111.2) in the 9 Intermediate races this year
– In the 9 races he’s ran 81% of his laps in the Top 15, led 11% of his laps, and has 4.74 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last year at Homestead Byron ran just 83% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 12th, but he had the 3rd best Driver Rating (110.2) and led 12% of his laps
– In 5 career Homestead races he has just 1 Top 5 (a Win) and as many Top 10 finishes as he does finishes out of the Top 20 (2)
– He’s only ran 71% of his career laps at Homestead in the Top 15, but does have 4.6 Stage Pts Per Stage and has led 10.45% of his laps here
Outlook for this weekend
Byron left Las Vegas with lots of points, but unfortunately he’s still only 9 above the cutline. His 2023 Ranks say he’s been the best driver this year and his playoffs have continued to his great season. What’s more is that his Intermediate stats this year are incredible and the best of anyone. However, this is Homestead where he’s struggled in his career, except for 1 race. This year he’s just been so good though, which is why I see Byron finishing 1st-6th this weekend.
3rd in Points – Martin Truex Jr. (P)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.12 | 6th of 35 | 116th of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.55% | T20th of 35 | T286th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 65.73% | 8th of 35 | 182nd of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 92.11 | 4th of 35 | 152nd of 773‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T3rd of 63 | T62nd of 1408 |
| Poles | 1 | T8th of 63 | T131st of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | T4th of 63 | T73rd of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 8 | T3rd of 63 | T63rd of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T6th of 63 | T137th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 16 | T5th of 63 | T146th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T4th of 35 | T108th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T4th of 63 | T21st of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 38 | T6th of 63 | T43rd of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 221 | 6th of 63 | T48th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 21 | 4th of 63 | T21st of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 19.57(T17th), 29.55% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 64.66(22nd), Best 9th, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 86.42%, Led 0.53% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 4 Stage T10’s, 1.29 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 14.56(14th), 76.18% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 90.58(9th), Best 2nd, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 89.64%, Led 11.81% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 3.58 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 6th, Started 12th, Led 28 laps (10.49%), Finished 3rd in Stage 1 and 2nd in Stage 2, ran 244 Laps in Top15 (91.39% of laps he ran), had 118.5 Driver Rating (ranked 2nd)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 18 Races
- 9.67 Avg. Finish (Ranks 2nd)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 36th
- Completed 99.36% of laps (% ranks 19th)
- 87.84% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 1st)
- 107.4 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 2nd)
- Led 7.89% of laps he’s run (% ranks 5th)
- 1 Win, 5.56% (% ranks 6th)
- 4 Top 2’s, 22.22% (% ranks T3rd)
- 7 Top 5’s, 38.89% (% ranks 4th)
- 12 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks T2nd)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 11.11% (% ranks T6th)
- 2 DNF’s, 11.11% (% ranks T30th)
- 1 Stage Win, 8.33% (% ranks T4th)
- 11 Stage T10’s, 91.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 3.0 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 6th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his stats at Homestead in his 18 career Cup starts and because he’s only 2 points above the driver cutline
– Truex ran just 77% of his laps in the Top 15 at Las Vegas last week en route to a 9th place finish
– This was his best finish since August when he finished 6th at Watkins Glen
– Only 7 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (92.11 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 5 Top 2’s, 8 Top 3’s, 2 DNF’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– Just 1 of his 15 2023 Ranks above is worse than 8th (96.55 Completed Laps%, ranks T20th)
– He’s ran just 29.55% of his laps in the 7 playoff races in the Top 15, has the 22nd best Avg. Driver Rating (64.66), and just 4 Stage T10’s in 14 stages
– In these 7 races he has a miserable 19.57 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10
– In 9 Intermediate races this year he has a 14.56 Avg. Finish with just 2 Top 5’s and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 76% of his laps on Intermediates this year in the Top 15, has 3.58 Stage Pts Per Stage, and his only finishes out of the Top 20 have been DNF’s
– Truex ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, led 10.49% of the race, had the 2nd best Driver Rating (118.5), and finished 6th
– In 18 career Homestead races he has a 9.67 Avg. Finish, 7 Top 5’s, 12 Top 10’s, and his only finishes out of the Top 20 have been DNF’s
– He’s ran 88% of his laps here in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 107.4 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Last week was finally a bright spot for Truex in the playoffs as he’s been awful in the 7 races. This has hurt his 2023 stats so bad that it’s questionable whether or not he deserves to be in the Championship 4. Some good news is he’s been decent at Intermediate this year, but the best news is that he’s been really good at Homestead in his career. Overall with all these stats I see the good vibes continuing for Truex at Homestead, finishing 3rd-8th.
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his stats at Homestead in his 18 career Cup starts and because he’s only 2 points above the driver cutline
– Truex ran just 77% of his laps in the Top 15 at Las Vegas last week en route to a 9th place finish
– This was his best finish since August when he finished 6th at Watkins Glen
– Only 7 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (92.11 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 5 Top 2’s, 8 Top 3’s, 2 DNF’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– Just 1 of his 15 2023 Ranks above is worse than 8th (96.55 Completed Laps%, ranks T20th)
– He’s ran just 29.55% of his laps in the 7 playoff races in the Top 15, has the 22nd best Avg. Driver Rating (64.66), and just 4 Stage T10’s in 14 stages
– In these 7 races he has a miserable 19.57 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10
– In 9 Intermediate races this year he has a 14.56 Avg. Finish with just 2 Top 5’s and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 76% of his laps on Intermediates this year in the Top 15, has 3.58 Stage Pts Per Stage, and his only finishes out of the Top 20 have been DNF’s
– Truex ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, led 10.49% of the race, had the 2nd best Driver Rating (118.5), and finished 6th
– In 18 career Homestead races he has a 9.67 Avg. Finish, 7 Top 5’s, 12 Top 10’s, and his only finishes out of the Top 20 have been DNF’s
– He’s ran 88% of his laps here in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 107.4 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Last week was finally a bright spot for Truex in the playoffs as he’s been awful in the 7 races. This has hurt his 2023 stats so bad that it’s questionable whether or not he deserves to be in the Championship 4. Some good news is he’s been decent at Intermediate this year, but the best news is that he’s been really good at Homestead in his career. Overall with all these stats I see the good vibes continuing for Truex at Homestead, finishing 3rd-8th.
4th in Points/3rd in Owner Points – Denny Hamlin (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.24 | 3rd of 35 | 76th of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.74% | 17th of 35 | T262nd of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 80.85% | 1st of 35 | 34th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 97.04 | 2nd of 35 | 88th of 773‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T3rd of 63 | T62nd of 1408 |
| Poles | 4 | 2nd of 63 | T22nd of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 7 | T2nd of 63 | T41st of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 10 | T1st of 63 | T33rd of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 13 | T2nd of 63 | T46th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 17 | T2nd of 63 | T108th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T6th of 35 | T254th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 7 | T2nd of 63 | T15th of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 43 | 1st of 63 | T19th of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 279 | 1st of 63 | 17th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 22 | 3rd of 63 | 20th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 11.86(6th), 81.13% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 101.46(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 98.27%, Led 21.12% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 2 Stage Wins, 10 Stage T10’s, 4.93 Stage Pts Per Stage, 7 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 11.56(6th), 89.62% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 108.03(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 35th, Laps Completed 92.01%, Led 16.77% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 7 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 4 Stage Wins, 5.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 7th, Started 14th, Led 4 laps (1.5%), Finished 10th in Stage 2, ran 244 Laps in Top15 (91.39% of laps he ran), had 90.8 Driver Rating (ranked 8th)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 18 Races
- 9.83 Avg. Finish (Ranks 4th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 33rd
- Completed 99.9% of laps (% ranks 9th)
- 73.95% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 6th)
- 98.54 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 5th)
- Led 8.27% of laps he’s run (% ranks 4th)
- 3 Wins, 16.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 3 Poles, 16.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 5 Top 3’s, 27.78% (% ranks 5th)
- 12 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks T2nd)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 11.11% (% ranks T6th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Stage Wins, 16.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 10 Stage T10’s, 83.33% (% ranks 3rd)
- 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 4th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his overall 2023 season stats thru 33 races and because he’s only 2 points to the good in the driver playoff standings
– Last week Hamlin ran all but 2 laps in the Top 15 and came home with 11 Stage Pts en route to his 17th Top 10 of the year, finishing 10th
– He’s finished in the Top 10 in 5 of his last 6 races
– His 80.85 Laps in Top 15%, 10 Top 3’s, 43 Stage T10’s, and 279 Stage Pts are all best in the 2023 Ranks above
– He’s gotten 4.16 Stage Pts Per Stage this year
– In 7 playoff races he has an 11.86 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 81% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best playoff Avg. Driver Rating (101.46), and has gotten 4.93 Stage Pts Per Stage in 14 stages
– He has a 108.03 Avg. Driver Rating in 9 Intermediate races this year with an 11.56 Avg. Finish, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– In the 9 Intermediate races he’s ran 90% of his laps in the Top 15, led 17% of his laps, and has gotten 5.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Hamlin ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, got just 1 Stage Pt, had the 8th best Driver Rating (90.8), and finished 7th
– In his 18 career Homestead races he’s ran 74% of his laps in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 98.54 Avg. Driver Rating
– He has a 9.83 Avg. Finish at Homestead in the Cup Series with more wins (3) than finishes out of the Top 20 (2), and 0 DNF’s
Outlook for this weekend
Hamlin’s 2023 Ranks above say he definitely deserves to be in the Championship 4 and his playoff stats, while not great, have been good enough to potentially get him there. He’s been pretty good at Intermediates this year as well, but the best stats for Hamlin are his Homestead stats as he’s been pretty consistent in his career here. With this I see Hamlin finishing somewhere between 1st and 8th this weekend.
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his overall 2023 season stats thru 33 races and because he’s only 2 points to the good in the driver playoff standings
– Last week Hamlin ran all but 2 laps in the Top 15 and came home with 11 Stage Pts en route to his 17th Top 10 of the year, finishing 10th
– He’s finished in the Top 10 in 5 of his last 6 races
– His 80.85 Laps in Top 15%, 10 Top 3’s, 43 Stage T10’s, and 279 Stage Pts are all best in the 2023 Ranks above
– He’s gotten 4.16 Stage Pts Per Stage this year
– In 7 playoff races he has an 11.86 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 81% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best playoff Avg. Driver Rating (101.46), and has gotten 4.93 Stage Pts Per Stage in 14 stages
– He has a 108.03 Avg. Driver Rating in 9 Intermediate races this year with an 11.56 Avg. Finish, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– In the 9 Intermediate races he’s ran 90% of his laps in the Top 15, led 17% of his laps, and has gotten 5.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Hamlin ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, got just 1 Stage Pt, had the 8th best Driver Rating (90.8), and finished 7th
– In his 18 career Homestead races he’s ran 74% of his laps in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 98.54 Avg. Driver Rating
– He has a 9.83 Avg. Finish at Homestead in the Cup Series with more wins (3) than finishes out of the Top 20 (2), and 0 DNF’s
Outlook for this weekend
Hamlin’s 2023 Ranks above say he definitely deserves to be in the Championship 4 and his playoff stats, while not great, have been good enough to potentially get him there. He’s been pretty good at Intermediates this year as well, but the best stats for Hamlin are his Homestead stats as he’s been pretty consistent in his career here. With this I see Hamlin finishing somewhere between 1st and 8th this weekend.
5th in Points/4th in Owner Points – Christopher Bell (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.79 | 5th of 35 | T93rd of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.23% | 14th of 35 | 226th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 69.15% | 5th of 35 | 156th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 91.1 | 5th of 35 | 165th of 773‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T9th of 63 | T146th of 1408 |
| Poles | 6 | 1st of 63 | T7th of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T11th of 63 | T185th of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 6 | T6th of 63 | T114th of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T6th of 63 | T137th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 17 | T2nd of 63 | T108th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T6th of 35 | T254th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 4 | T8th of 63 | T41st of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 42 | 2nd of 63 | T23rd of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 232 | 5th of 63 | T39th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 9 | 10th of 63 | T56th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 9.86(3rd), 71.06% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 95.09(5th), Best 2nd, Worst 23rd, Laps Completed 99.95%, Led 15.98% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 4 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 10 Stage T10’s, 5.14 Stage Pts Per Stage, 2 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Poles (longest streak in Cup Series this year and tied 12th longest in Cup Series all-time)
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 13.67(10th), 76.26% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 92.49(7th), Best 2nd, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 95.89%, Led 6.56% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 3 Poles, 1 Top 3, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 4.37 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 11th, Started 2nd, Led 4 laps (1.5%), got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 223 Laps in Top15 (83.52% of laps he ran), had 80.1 Driver Rating (ranked 14th)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 3 Races
- 13.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 7th)
- Best Finish: 8th, Worst: 20th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 52.93% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 15th)
- 75.13 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 16th)
- Led 0.5% of laps he’s run (% ranks 14th)
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 33.33% (% ranks T14th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 66.67% (% ranks T8th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 0 Stage T10’s
Main Points & Outlook
– Christopher Bell is notable because he’s 5th in driver points only 2 points below the cutline
– Bell ran all 267 laps in the Top 15 last week and almost pulled off a late race pass for the win, but alas he had to settle for 2nd
– He’s now finished 3 of the last 5 races in the Top 5
– Only his 6 Poles, 17 Top 10’s, and 42 Stage T10’s are better than 4th in the 2023 Ranks above
– His 6 Poles thru 33 races this year are tied for 7th most since 2004
– He has a 9.86 Avg. Finish in the 7 playoff races, a 95.09 Avg. Driver Rating, 4 Poles, and 3 Top 5’s
– He’s only ran 71% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, but has 5.14 Stage Pts Per Stage, and has led 16% of his laps
– In 9 Intermediate races he has just a 13.67 Avg. Finish with 3 Poles, 1 Top 3, and the same amount of Top 5’s as finishes out of the Top 20 (3)
– He’s ran just 76% of his Intermediate laps in the Top 15, has a 92.49 Avg. Driver Rating, and 4.37 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 9 races
– In the Homestead race last year Bell ran just 83.52% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Pts, had the 14th best Driver Rating (80.1), and finished 11th
– He only has 1 Top 10 in 3 career Homestead Cup races with a best finish of 8th and a worst of 20th
– In his 3 races here he’s ran just 53% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 75.13 Avg. Driver Rating, and 0 Stage T10’s in 6 stages
Outlook for this weekend
Bell was so close to locking in his Championship 4 spot, but alas he’s still looking for it. His playoffs have been good, but his 2023 stats above say he’s not really deserving of a Championship 4 spot. Bell has had speed at Intermediates this year but hasn’t been able to put together races for great results. This is the case at Homestead too, well the results part because he’s been decent at best here. However, this year I see being better as he finishes between 5th and 12th.
– Christopher Bell is notable because he’s 5th in driver points only 2 points below the cutline
– Bell ran all 267 laps in the Top 15 last week and almost pulled off a late race pass for the win, but alas he had to settle for 2nd
– He’s now finished 3 of the last 5 races in the Top 5
– Only his 6 Poles, 17 Top 10’s, and 42 Stage T10’s are better than 4th in the 2023 Ranks above
– His 6 Poles thru 33 races this year are tied for 7th most since 2004
– He has a 9.86 Avg. Finish in the 7 playoff races, a 95.09 Avg. Driver Rating, 4 Poles, and 3 Top 5’s
– He’s only ran 71% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, but has 5.14 Stage Pts Per Stage, and has led 16% of his laps
– In 9 Intermediate races he has just a 13.67 Avg. Finish with 3 Poles, 1 Top 3, and the same amount of Top 5’s as finishes out of the Top 20 (3)
– He’s ran just 76% of his Intermediate laps in the Top 15, has a 92.49 Avg. Driver Rating, and 4.37 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 9 races
– In the Homestead race last year Bell ran just 83.52% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Pts, had the 14th best Driver Rating (80.1), and finished 11th
– He only has 1 Top 10 in 3 career Homestead Cup races with a best finish of 8th and a worst of 20th
– In his 3 races here he’s ran just 53% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 75.13 Avg. Driver Rating, and 0 Stage T10’s in 6 stages
Outlook for this weekend
Bell was so close to locking in his Championship 4 spot, but alas he’s still looking for it. His playoffs have been good, but his 2023 stats above say he’s not really deserving of a Championship 4 spot. Bell has had speed at Intermediates this year but hasn’t been able to put together races for great results. This is the case at Homestead too, well the results part because he’s been decent at best here. However, this year I see being better as he finishes between 5th and 12th.
6th in Points/5th in Owner Points – Tyler Reddick (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 15.55 | 14th of 35 | T233rd of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.55% | T20th of 35 | T286th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 70.38% | 4th of 35 | 138th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 90.26 | 6th of 35 | 173rd of 773‡ |
| Wins | 2 | T7th of 63 | T100th of 1408 |
| Poles | 2 | T4th of 63 | T68th of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | T4th of 63 | T73rd of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 6 | T6th of 63 | T114th of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T6th of 63 | T137th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 15 | T8th of 63 | T172nd of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T6th of 35 | T254th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T4th of 63 | T21st of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 40 | T4th of 63 | T34th of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 251 | 4th of 63 | 30th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 16 | T6th of 63 | T35th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 10.43(4th), 74.62% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 98.06(4th), Best 1st, Worst 25th, Laps Completed 99.95%, Led 7.99% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 11 Stage T10’s, 5.0 Stage Pts Per Stage, 7 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 13.0(8th), 84.89% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 98.44(4th), Best 1st, Worst 30th, Laps Completed 99.93%, Led 7.96% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 4.26 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 35th (crash), Started 7th, Led 0 laps, Finished 4th in Stage 1, ran 120 Laps in Top15 (49.59% of laps he ran), had 79.9 Driver Rating (ranked 15th)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 3 Races
- 13.67 Avg. Finish (Ranks 9th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 35th
- Completed 96.88% of laps (% ranks 31st)
- 63.02% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 13th)
- 93.0 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 8th)
- Led 0.39% of laps he’s run (% ranks 15th)
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 33.33% (% ranks 1st)
- 2 Top 5’s, 66.67% (% ranks 1st)
- 2 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks T2nd)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 33.33% (% ranks 15th)
- 1 DNF, 33.33% (% ranks T40th)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 4.0 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 3rd)
Main Points & Outlook
– Tyler Reddick is notable because of his 2023 Intermediate stats
– Last week Reddick ran an impressive 97% of his laps in the Top 15, but he only got 8 Stage Pts and finished 8th
– He is now on a 2 race Top 10 finish streak
– 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 70.38 Laps in Top 15%, 2 Poles, and 5 Top 2’s
– All 3 of his stage stats (6 Stage Wins, 40 Stage T10’s, 251 Stage Pts) rank 4th or T4th of the 2023 Ranks above
– In 7 playoff races he has the 4th best Avg. Finish (10.43) and the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating (98.06) with 2 Top 3’s
– He’s ran 75% of his laps in the 7 races in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has 11 Stage T10’s in 14 stages with 2 Stage Wins
– His 9 2023 Intermediate races has given him a 13.0 Avg. Finish, a 98.44 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Top 5’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– In the 9 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has gotten 4.26 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Reddick ran just 50% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, had the 15th best Driver Rating (79.9), and crashed out to a 35th place finish
– This was the first time he’s finished outside the Top 5 at Homestead in his 3 career Cup starts here
– In his 3 starts here he’s ran just 63% of his laps in the Top 15, led only 0.39% of his laps, and has just a 93.0 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Reddick’s 2023 stats above say there is an argument that could be made for him to make the Championship 4. His playoff stats say about the same as he’s been moderately good in the 7 races. His 9 Intermediate races are about the same as he’s done well, but hasn’t been spectacular. However, his career at Homestead has been pretty spectacular, except for last year. Based on all this together I see Reddick having a decent day this weekend, finishing 1st-7th.
– Tyler Reddick is notable because of his 2023 Intermediate stats
– Last week Reddick ran an impressive 97% of his laps in the Top 15, but he only got 8 Stage Pts and finished 8th
– He is now on a 2 race Top 10 finish streak
– 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 70.38 Laps in Top 15%, 2 Poles, and 5 Top 2’s
– All 3 of his stage stats (6 Stage Wins, 40 Stage T10’s, 251 Stage Pts) rank 4th or T4th of the 2023 Ranks above
– In 7 playoff races he has the 4th best Avg. Finish (10.43) and the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating (98.06) with 2 Top 3’s
– He’s ran 75% of his laps in the 7 races in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has 11 Stage T10’s in 14 stages with 2 Stage Wins
– His 9 2023 Intermediate races has given him a 13.0 Avg. Finish, a 98.44 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Top 5’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– In the 9 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has gotten 4.26 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Reddick ran just 50% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead last year, had the 15th best Driver Rating (79.9), and crashed out to a 35th place finish
– This was the first time he’s finished outside the Top 5 at Homestead in his 3 career Cup starts here
– In his 3 starts here he’s ran just 63% of his laps in the Top 15, led only 0.39% of his laps, and has just a 93.0 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Reddick’s 2023 stats above say there is an argument that could be made for him to make the Championship 4. His playoff stats say about the same as he’s been moderately good in the 7 races. His 9 Intermediate races are about the same as he’s done well, but hasn’t been spectacular. However, his career at Homestead has been pretty spectacular, except for last year. Based on all this together I see Reddick having a decent day this weekend, finishing 1st-7th.
10th in Points – Ross Chastain
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 14.97 | 10th of 35 | 209th of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.54% | 12th of 35 | T186th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 54.51% | 16th of 35 | 270th of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 81.27 | 12th of 35 | 278th of 773‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T9th of 63 | T146th of 1408 |
| Poles | 1 | T8th of 63 | T131st of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 3 | T9th of 63 | T139th of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 5 | T9th of 63 | T138th of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T6th of 63 | T137th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 13 | T13th of 63 | T228th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T6th of 35 | T254th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 5 | 7th of 63 | T29th of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 30 | 8th of 63 | T70th of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 187 | 7th of 63 | 62nd of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 10 | 9th of 63 | T49th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 13.57(10th), 42.27% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 74.79(16th), Best 2nd, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 93.34%, Led 0.05% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 3 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 6 Stage T10’s, 2.64 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 10.44(3rd), 72.05% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 95.89(5th), Best 1st, Worst 29th, Laps Completed 99.7%, Led 7.28% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 7 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 3.63 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 2nd, Started 20th, Led 0 laps, Finished 8th in Stage 2, ran 264 Laps in Top15 (98.88% of laps he ran), had 105.4 Driver Rating (ranked 4th)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 21.75 Avg. Finish (Ranks 24th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 35th
- Completed 96.91% of laps (% ranks 30th)
- 36.04% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 17th)
- 60.58 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 23rd)
- Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 25.0% (% ranks 2nd)
- 1 Top 15, 25.0% (% ranks T20th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T23rd)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 1 Stage T10, 12.5% (% ranks 19th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Ross Chastain is notable because of how he ran in the 2022 Homestead race
– Chastain ran just 76% of his laps in the Top 15 at Las Vegas, but he found a way to get up to the Top 5 by the end, finishing 5th
– He’s now on a 2 race Top 10 streak, tying his longest this year
– 10 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are better than 10th including his 1 Win, 5 Top 3’s, 9 Top 5’s, 3 DNF’s, and 10 Playoff Pts
– His 3 stage stats (5 Stage Wins, 30 Stage T10’s, 187 Stage Pts) either rank 7th or 8th most this year
– In 7 playoff races this year he’s only ran 42% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 74.79 Avg. Driver Rating, and he’s led just 1 lap
– He has a 13.57 Avg. Finish in the 7 playoff races with 3 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s
– At Intermediate races this year he has a 10.44 Avg. Finish, 1 Win, 5 Top 5’s, and only 2 finishes out of the Top 20 in 9 races
– In these 9 races he’s ran just 72% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 95.89 Avg. Driver Rating, and led 7% of his laps ran
– At Homestead last year Chastain started 20th, but ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 4th best Driver Rating (105.4), and finished 2nd
– In 4 career Cup races at Homestead he has a 21.75 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– He’s ran just 36% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead, led 0 laps, and has just 1 Stage Top 10 in 8 stages
Outlook for this weekend
Chastain had a good run at Las Vegas last week, but alas he’s still out of the playoffs. His 2023 stats show he doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway, and his playoff stats show why he isn’t as he’s been pretty inconsistent. A bit of good news is that he’s ran well on Intermediates this year, but more bad news is that his Homestead stats are trash (except last year). In all with these stats I see Chastain getting a 4th-12th place finish this weekend.
– Ross Chastain is notable because of how he ran in the 2022 Homestead race
– Chastain ran just 76% of his laps in the Top 15 at Las Vegas, but he found a way to get up to the Top 5 by the end, finishing 5th
– He’s now on a 2 race Top 10 streak, tying his longest this year
– 10 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are better than 10th including his 1 Win, 5 Top 3’s, 9 Top 5’s, 3 DNF’s, and 10 Playoff Pts
– His 3 stage stats (5 Stage Wins, 30 Stage T10’s, 187 Stage Pts) either rank 7th or 8th most this year
– In 7 playoff races this year he’s only ran 42% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 74.79 Avg. Driver Rating, and he’s led just 1 lap
– He has a 13.57 Avg. Finish in the 7 playoff races with 3 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s
– At Intermediate races this year he has a 10.44 Avg. Finish, 1 Win, 5 Top 5’s, and only 2 finishes out of the Top 20 in 9 races
– In these 9 races he’s ran just 72% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 95.89 Avg. Driver Rating, and led 7% of his laps ran
– At Homestead last year Chastain started 20th, but ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 4th best Driver Rating (105.4), and finished 2nd
– In 4 career Cup races at Homestead he has a 21.75 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– He’s ran just 36% of his laps in the Top 15 at Homestead, led 0 laps, and has just 1 Stage Top 10 in 8 stages
Outlook for this weekend
Chastain had a good run at Las Vegas last week, but alas he’s still out of the playoffs. His 2023 stats show he doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway, and his playoff stats show why he isn’t as he’s been pretty inconsistent. A bit of good news is that he’s ran well on Intermediates this year, but more bad news is that his Homestead stats are trash (except last year). In all with these stats I see Chastain getting a 4th-12th place finish this weekend.
14th in Points – Kevin Harvick
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 33 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 15.03 | 11th of 35 | T211th of 816 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.0% | 3rd of 35 | 54th of 816 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 65.13% | 10th of 35 | 192nd of 773‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 80.64 | 13th of 35 | 285th of 773‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T16th of 63 | T282nd of 1408 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 63 | T269th of 1408 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T14th of 63 | T257th of 1408 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T17th of 63 | T332nd of 1408 |
| Top 5’s | 6 | 13th of 63 | T219th of 1408 |
| Top 10’s | 13 | T13th of 63 | T228th of 1408 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T2nd of 35 | T35th of 816 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T14th of 63 | T88th of 444* |
| Stage T10s | 28 | 10th of 63 | T79th of 444* |
| Stage Pts | 137 | 10th of 63 | T80th of 444* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T18th of 63 | T116th of 444* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 33 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 4+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races, Avg. Finish 19.71(19th), 46.69% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 76.99(13th), Best 6th, Worst 38th, Laps Completed 99.75%, Led 0.61% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 4 Stage T10’s, 1.21 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Intermediate Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate start, 45 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 12.11(7th), 72.34% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 86.17(12th), Best 2nd, Worst 24th, Laps Completed 99.96%, Led 0.93% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Homestead Statistics
- 2022 Homestead race
- Finished 8th, Started 16th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 212 Laps in Top15 (79.4% of laps he ran), had 85.4 Driver Rating (ranked 11th)
- Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Homestead, 43 drivers)
- 22 Races
- 7.32 Avg. Finish (Ranks 1st)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 26th
- Completed 99.97% of laps (% ranks 7th)
- 83.52% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 4th)
- 105.38 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 3rd)
- Led 7.04% of laps he’s run (% ranks 6th)
- 1 Win, 4.55% (% ranks 8th)
- 1 Pole, 4.55% (% ranks 5th)
- 8 Top 3’s, 36.36% (% ranks 1st)
- 19 Top 10’s, 86.36% (% ranks 1st)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 4.55% (% ranks 5th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 8.33% (% ranks T4th)
- 7 Stage T10’s, 58.33% (% ranks T7th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kevin Harvick is notable because of his career Cup stats at Homestead
– At Las Vegas Harvick ran 81% of his laps in the Top 15, but only mustard a 16th place finish
– He’s only had back-to-back Top 5’s once this year
– Only his 99.0 Completed Laps%, 65.13 Laps in Top 15%, 1 DNF, 28 Stage T10’s, and 137 Stage Pts are 10th or better in the 2023 Ranks above
– His 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, and 1 Playoff Pt all rank worse than 15th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In 7 playoff races this year he has a terrible 19.71 Avg. Finish with just 1 Top 10 and 2 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s only ran 47% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led only 0.61% of his laps, and has gotten just 1.21 Stage Pts Per Stage
– He has a 12.11 Avg. Finish in the 9 Intermediate races this year with just 1 Top 5 and 3 Top 10’s
– In these 9 races he’s ran 72% of his laps in the Top 15, led only 1% of his laps, and has just 2.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At Homestead last year Harvick ran 79% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Top 10’s, had the 11th best Driver Rating (85.4), and finished 8th
– In 22 career races at Homestead he has just 1 Win, but does have 8 Top 3’s, and 19 Top 10’s while only finishing out of the Top 20 once
– His 7.32 Avg. Finish, 36.36 Top 3%, 86.36 Top 10%, and 0 DNF’s at Homestead all rank best of any active driver
Outlook for this weekend
It’s no secret that Harvick has struggled this year and his playoffs have been no different. One bit of good news about this year in the stats above is that he’s done moderately well in the 9 Intermediate races this year. However, the best stats above are his Homestead stats as, even with just 1 Win, he’s done very well in his career. This year will probably be a different story as based on the entirety of the stats above I see Harvick finishing 8th-15th this weekend.
– Kevin Harvick is notable because of his career Cup stats at Homestead
– At Las Vegas Harvick ran 81% of his laps in the Top 15, but only mustard a 16th place finish
– He’s only had back-to-back Top 5’s once this year
– Only his 99.0 Completed Laps%, 65.13 Laps in Top 15%, 1 DNF, 28 Stage T10’s, and 137 Stage Pts are 10th or better in the 2023 Ranks above
– His 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, and 1 Playoff Pt all rank worse than 15th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In 7 playoff races this year he has a terrible 19.71 Avg. Finish with just 1 Top 10 and 2 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s only ran 47% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led only 0.61% of his laps, and has gotten just 1.21 Stage Pts Per Stage
– He has a 12.11 Avg. Finish in the 9 Intermediate races this year with just 1 Top 5 and 3 Top 10’s
– In these 9 races he’s ran 72% of his laps in the Top 15, led only 1% of his laps, and has just 2.05 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At Homestead last year Harvick ran 79% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Top 10’s, had the 11th best Driver Rating (85.4), and finished 8th
– In 22 career races at Homestead he has just 1 Win, but does have 8 Top 3’s, and 19 Top 10’s while only finishing out of the Top 20 once
– His 7.32 Avg. Finish, 36.36 Top 3%, 86.36 Top 10%, and 0 DNF’s at Homestead all rank best of any active driver
Outlook for this weekend
It’s no secret that Harvick has struggled this year and his playoffs have been no different. One bit of good news about this year in the stats above is that he’s done moderately well in the 9 Intermediate races this year. However, the best stats above are his Homestead stats as, even with just 1 Win, he’s done very well in his career. This year will probably be a different story as based on the entirety of the stats above I see Harvick finishing 8th-15th this weekend.
