This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Homestead Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 7th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (A.J. Allmendinger 21st)
-9 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-Only 6 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-12 of the Top 13 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 13 (only one who didn’t was Chase Elliott who finished 32nd, instead it was Brad Keselowski who was projected to finish 14th
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -33 |
| 2. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 28th -26 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 30th -27 |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 29th -24 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 31st -23 |
| 9. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 18th -9 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -3 |
| 13. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 19th -6 |
| 14. | 22 | Joey Logano | 8th +6 |
| 15. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27th -11 |
| 17. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 5th +16 |
| 22. | 43 | Erik Jones | 14th +8 |
| 23. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 17th +7 |
| 25. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 22nd +3 |
| 26. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 32nd -6 |
| 27. | 31 | Justin Haley | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 36th -7 |
| 30. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 13th +17 |
| 31. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 20th +11 |
| 32. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 25th +7 |
| 33. | 51 | Ryan Newman | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 24th +11 |
| 36. | 78 | Josh Bilicki | 35th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
