Around this time last year, Kaulig Racing seemed to be one of the most exciting teams in NASCAR. After slowly building up their Xfinity Series program, Kaulig was a dominant force in NASCAR’s lower series. All three cars made the playoffs, with AJ Allmendinger looking like a championship favorite. Meanwhile, their Cup Series endeavors were looking promising. Justin Haley was a young prospect who had time to develop while demonstrating some promising results. Meanwhile, their “trophy hunting” 16 car already picked up a win at the 2021 Indy GP. AJ Allmendinger was announced to be returning to Cup for 2023 after running strongly in his limited 2022 Cup starts. Replacing Allmendinger in the Xfinity Series was Chandler Smith, a poached Toyota prospect who signed a mult-year deal. Daniel Hemric and Landon Cassill were also slated to return to their Xfinity rides. Everything was looking up for Kaulig Racing.
Starting before the 2023 season began, Kaulig Racing started getting hit with negatives. Shortly before the 2023 season, Cassill lost sponsorship from Voyager declaring bankruptcy. Without the funding, Casill lost his ride in the 10 car. Instead of a fulltime driver, Kaulig decided to make the 10 car their “all-star” entry. The hits kept coming as the season dragged on. Justin Haley announced he was departing the team to go to Rick Ware Racing. All season long, there have been constant reports of AJ Allmendinger losing his Cup ride. The latest blow to Kaulig Racing is the announcement Sunday that Chandler Smith was bought out of his contract and is returning to Toyota with Joe Gibbs Racing. In one year, the outlook on Kaulig Racing has drastically changed.
Dip in Xfinity Performance
Heading into the 2023 season, there were high expectations for Kaulig Racing. For the Xfinity Series, the expectation was the Kaulig was resume being one of the top teams in the series. In reality, Kaulig seems to have taken a step back. Between their two fulltime drivers, the Kaulig Racing drivers have mustered one win and 14 Top-5s. By comparison, AJ Allmendinger had 5 wins and 17 Top-5s in 2022. Now, no one is going to argue that Allmendinger (in Xfinity) is comparable to rookie Chandler Smith and Daniel Hemric. With that said, neither drive is averaging a Top-10 finish this season. In previous years, AJ Allmendinger, Justin Haley, and Ross Chastain did that regularly.
Even with their all-star car, the performances have not been consistently stellar. While Kyle Larson and Allmendinger have won in the 10 car, other Cup drivers have struggled to bring out the best of the 10 car. Kyle Busch will go winless in Xfinity for the first time since 2012. Although Allmendinger has won two races, there were a couple of road courses were it seemed the car held him back. Most notably was Road America, where Allmendinger had a brake issue that kept him out of contention. Both Daniel Suarez and Austin Dillon never looked like race winning threats in their starts.
Kaulig Racing is still a top team in the Xfinity Series. However, there has been a noticeable dip in performance. Especially when looking at Chandler Smith’s season, you can see a downward trend. At the start of the season, Smith looked like a championship contender. After his Richmond win, Smith had led a total of 204 laps in 7 races. Since that win, Smith has only led 114 laps in the last 24 races. While they are a top team, Kaulig is lagging behind JGR, JR Motorsports, RCR, and Stewart-Haas Racing this season.
Disappointing Cup Season
On the Cup Series side, there was a lot of positive vibes with their two fulltime cars to start the year. Justin Haley looked primed to take a step forward. The return of AJ Allmendinger had many penciling him in the playoffs. Even Chandler Smith was set to make some Cup Series starts in a non-chartered entry. Then Smith could not get his car rolling for Daytona 500 qualifying. That was a bad omen for the season.
Until recently, the Cup Series season has been a slog for Kaulig Racing. Outside of Justin Haley putting up a valiant effort against Shane van Gisbergen at the Chicago Street Course, there was little to celebrate prior to the ROVAL. Neither driver made the playoffs, with Allmendinger looking surprisingly pedestrian on road courses. While you cannot say Haley has taken a step back, his 2023 has not been the step forward many hoped it would be. Haley has improved his number of Top-10s, but has a lower amount of Top-5s, higher average finish, and sits worse in the points now compared to last year. Other than at Chicago, Haley has been a nonfactor all season long.
Prior to the past few races, Allmendinger’s return to the Cup Series has been a dud. It started off well with a Top-10 in the Daytona 500. His next Top-10 would not come until Sonoma in June. Through 31 races, Allmendinger’s 7 Top-10s is less than his 8 Top-10s in 18 starts last year. Outside of the ROVAL, his road course starts has been less than inspiring. His ROVAL win and Top-5 at Homestead have been recent positives. However, it does not salvage a disappointing season. His 2022 results pointed to a promising 2023 that never came to be.
Silly Season Losses
While the on-track results have not been great, the silly season news around Kaulig Racing have been concerning. There is a high possibility that each of their five cars will have a new driver in it for the 2024 season. At the time of writing, it is known that the 31 Cup, 16 Xfinity, and 11 Xfinity will all have different drivers next year. Daniel Hemric is replacing Haley. Chandler Smith is departing for JGR. Based on reports, AJ Allmendinger is likely returning to the Xfinity Series. Who knows if the 10 car will get a fulltime driver next year.
As of right now, the only car that is improving with the new driver would be the 16 Xfinity car (if the Allmendinger reports are true). However, Allmendinger leaving his Cup ride will be a huge loss for that program. While the results have been mediocre, Allmendinger brings veteran experience and massive upside on the road courses. Based on talent alone, surely Kaulig would prefer Allmendinger in the Cup Series.
Once again, Justin Haley’s numbers in the Cup Series have been nothing to gloat about this season. However, he has flashed potential and is only 24 years old. Haley has been Kaulig’s prospect since 2019. Losing him to Rick Ware Racing (of all places) is a tough loss, both for on-track and team morale reasons. Replacing Haley with Daniel Hemric is considerably less exciting for the future. Hemric is a fine driver, but has struggled to be a top competitor in either Xfinity or Cup in quality equipment. To this day, Hemric has only managed to secure one NASCAR win in 298 starts.
Who will be filling in the other open seats? It seems likely that Derek Kraus will find himself in one of Kaulig’s Xfinity Series rides. If the team decides to go back to three fulltime drivers, Layne Riggs also looks like a candidate for a Xfinity ride. Despite how well Kraus has run in limited starts this year, both options would be unknowns for next year. As for the 16 Cup car, the usual names of Noah Gragson and Ty Dillon have been floated. With Gragson apparently the leading candidate for SHR’s 10 car, then Ty Dillon looks to be Allmendinger’s replacement (if it a fulltime driver). That would be two downgrades for their Cup Series program heading into next season.
Financial Strain
The silly season woes for Kaulig Racing seem to come down to major factor: money. Financial strain is seemingly hitting Kaulig pretty significantly. While Matt Kaulig has footed a healthy amount of the bill thus far in his NASCAR ownership, that seems to be slowing (from a sponsorship perspective). After Landon Cassill’s relatively solid 2022 season, it was still shocking to see Kaulig completely cut ties with the driver after Voyager dropped out. There was some talk at the time that Cassill might make a start in the 10 car, but that never happened. The financial strain of running five (sometimes six) active teams across two series has clearly caused Kaulig to rethink their process.
Haley left Kaulig Racing due to a lack of funding. Haley’s anchor sponsor this year has been LeafFilter, which is Matt Kaulig’s company. Why is AJ Allmendinger being sent back down to the Xfinity Series? Lack of funding. Daniel Hemric is going back to the Cup Series because he has sponsorship tied to him. Whoever replaces Allmendinger in the Cup Series will bring their own sponsorship with them, hence the Ty Dillon rumors. There is a real possibility that the 16 car will return to being the “trophy hunting” car rather than having a fulltime driver. When it comes to the silly season moves, one thing is clear: money talks more than talent.
Cautionary Tale
Over the course of one year, Kaulig Racing’s Cup program went from exciting and up-and-coming to financially strained and firmly stuck in the mid-pack (sans road courses). A team that prides itself on a trophy hunting mentality is moving away from that philosophy for financial relief. While understandable, it is disappointing to see, especially when teams like Spire and Trackhouse are pushing their limits for talented drivers. Every team has their own financial situation though. If Kaulig Racing is hurting on the financial side, it limits their ability to compete.
Kaulig Racing expanded quickly. In 2019, Kaulig had one fulltime Xfinity team with a part time car that started 15 races. Over the next four years, the team has grown to three fulltime Xfinity Series teams and two chartered Cup Series teams. That is rapid growth, especially considering how questionable the United States economy has been since 2020. It seems that the financial strain of expansion has caught up to Kaulig. Diving head first into the Cup Series has been a costly endeavor, which seems to have impacted their Xfinity performance. In 2021, all three of their Xfinity drivers won a race. Over the past two seasons, only one of their fulltime drivers have won a race per season.
The Chandler Smith departure might indicate the concern over the future of Kaulig Racing. Smith, who signed a multi-year deal last year, has opted to return to Toyota and JGR rather than remain with the tight-knit Kaulig unit. If money is becoming an issue, what does the future hold for Kaulig Racing? Did Kaulig expand too quickly? Could Kaulig Racing become a cautionary tale for other teams? Hopefully not. NASCAR is a better sport when Kaulig Racing can trophy hunt rather than penny pinch.
I know that most will disagree but Ty Dillion has never been is a car that had much of a chance of running top15. If it is Ty, we will see if he has the talent. If he doesn’t all the nay sayers will be right.
Thanks for the comment!
At the Cup level, I agree. However, his time in solid Truck and Xfinity equipment makes me doubt what his ceiling is. At the same time, he put up respectable numbers in the 42 last year.