Tuesday, November 5, 2024
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Martinsville

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Martinsville

This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Martinsville Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 34th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 11th

Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Bubba Wallace 6th)
-Only 11 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the 36 drivers finished 24+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15

Notable results this week

Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Justin Haley

Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 11 Denny Hamlin 3rd -2
2. 24 William Byron 13th -11
3. 20 Christopher Bell 7th -4
4. 54 Ty Gibbs 18th -14
5. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 12th -7
6. 6 Brad Keselowski 33rd -27
7. 4 Kevin Harvick 16th -9
8. 12 Ryan Blaney 1st +7
9. 22 Joey Logano 5th +4
10. 9 Chase Elliott 17th -7
11. 23 Bubba Wallace 11th +0
12. 5 Kyle Larson 6th +6
13. 14 Chase Briscoe 4th +9
14. 45 Tyler Reddick 26th -12
15. 10 Aric Almirola 2nd +13
16. 17 Chris Buescher 8th +8
17. 41 Ryan Preece 20th -3
18. 48 Alex Bowman 32nd -14
19. 1 Ross Chastain 14th +5
20. 8 Kyle Busch 27th -7
21. 38 Todd Gilliland 10th +11
22. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19th +3
23. 99 Daniel Suarez 34th -11
24. 2 Austin Cindric 9th +15
25. 7 Corey LaJoie 22nd +3
26. 42 Carson Hocevar 31st -5
27. 3 Austin Dillon 23rd +4
28. 34 Michael McDowell 25th +3
29. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 28th +1
30. 43 Erik Jones 21st +9
31. 21 Harrison Burton 15th +16
32. 51 Ryan Newman 29th +3
33. 31 Justin Haley 30th +3
34. 77 Ty Dillon 24th +10
35. 15 J.J. Yeley 35th +0
36. 78 B.J. McLeod 36th +0

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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