Three races are left in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. Next up on the docket is the 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mobil 1 decided to dedicate the title sponsor of the race to the retiring Kevin Harvick. In addition to being the title sponsor, Harvick will be driving a Budweiser throwback scheme to his 2014 championship winning race. It has been great to see the tributes to Kevin Harvick as his career is coming to an end. Last week, Harvick ran a great paint scheme honoring the miles he has driven in the Cup Series. Martinsville and Phoenix will surely have something special up their sleeve for the next two weeks.
Beyond the Harvick tribute, the 4EVER 400 is the second race of the Round of 8. Kyle Larson has already locked himself into the Championship Four. Meanwhile, four drivers are within 9 points of each around the cutline. After Ryan Blaney’s penalty was rescinded, there are three other drivers who sit further from the cutline. While Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher all could still point their way in, they will need a mixture of strong runs (with a healthy amount of stage points) and misfortune for the other four drivers. Last year, Homestead was the Round of 8 race where the playoff drivers struggled most. Not only did a nonplayoff driver win the race, but only two of the Round of 8 competitors finished inside the Top-10. Will there be a repeat of that struggle this year?
The playoff pressure will be high in the 4EVER 400 this weekend. Down in Homestead, who will be the five drivers to watch? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kevin Harvick
The race is in tribute to the man, so it makes sense to be on the lookout for him. Plus, that Budweiser throwback scheme is a beauty. It will be easy keep eyes on Kevin Harvick this weekend.
In terms of performance reasons, Kevin Harvick is still in search of a win in his final season. With three races left to go, time is running out. How does Homestead fare as a potential site for a Harvick win? Based on his history at the speedway, there is strong chance. Homestead is Harvick’s best track by average finish. In his 22 starts, his average finish is an impressive 7.3. While he only has one win (2014), Harvick has 12 Top-5s (over half of his starts at the track). Only three times has Harvick not finished inside the Top-10.
While his history is impressive, the recent past is not as dominate as he once was. Last year in the NextGen car, Harvick finished eighth but did not collect any stage points or led a single lap. Harvick has not led a lap at Homestead since 2019. Will Kevin Harvick break the recent trend and put that 4 Budweiser Ford out front on Sunday? Fans attending the 4EVER 400 will certainly hope for it to happen.
Tyler Reddick
Sitting 16 points below the cutline, Tyler Reddick heads to a track where he has found a lot of success. Most of that success has been in the lower series, but Homestead is known as a “driver’s track”. The highline works at Homestead. There are not many drivers who enjoy running the highline more than Tyler Reddick. This could be Reddick’s best track to win his way into the Championship Four.
As mentioned earlier, Reddick has found great success at Homestead in the Xfinity Series. In 4 starts, Reddick has won twice and finished inside the Top-5 each time. While his 2021 runner up finish resulted in a disqualification, his on-track performance once again demonstrated his skill at Homestead. In the Cup Series, Reddick has two Top-10s in three starts. If not for a crash last year, that number would likely be three. With the speed the 45 team has shown this year, Reddick should be a favorite for the win. After a disappointing Las Vegas run, expect Reddick to come out swinging this Sunday.
Kyle Larson
Could Kyle Larson go back-to-back in the Round of 8? While the incentive structure is to focus primarily on Phoenix, Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels seemed intent on flexing their might at Homestead. Even with his Championship Four spot locked up, many have Larson as the betting favorite for the 4EVER 400. After he won this race last year, it is hard to argue against that.
Larson dominated this race last year. He led 199 of the 267 laps and swept both stages. If Larson and Daniels are to be believed, then Larson will be difficult to beat. Not only does Larson have success at Homestead in the NextGen car, but he also has collected Top-5s in over half of his Homestead starts. If not for a blown engine in 2019, his worst finish at the track would be fifteenth. The big question is whether the confident talk will be backed up in preparation this week. While Larson and Daniels surely want to win every race, it is tempting to be distracted in prepping for the championship race. When there is nothing to gain at Homestead, then it is easy to see how the 5 team might look past this race.
Ross Chastain
Based on recent runs, Ross Chastain and the 1 team have seemingly found their speed again. Other than Talladega, Chastain has been impressive over the past four races. Not only have the finishes been solid, however Chastain has also driven through the field at Texas, the ROVAL, and Las Vegas. At Texas and Las Vegas, a pit road penalty caused Chastain to lose track position early. By the end of each race, Chastain found his way to the Top-5. For the ROVAL, the stage point pit strategy had Chastain deep in the field late. During the final green flag run, Chastain was able to claw his way to a Top-10.
With this return to form, Chastain is a great shout as a nonplayoff driver to contend on Sunday. Chastain finished second after running Top-10 all race long last year. Homestead fits into the type of track that the Melon Man runs best at, especially during his Trackhouse tenure. While they are out of the playoffs, the 1 team surely wants to steal a win from the playoff drivers before the season is over. If the recent speed maintains at Homestead, expect Ross Chastain to be in the mix late in the race.
Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher enters the 4EVER 400 as the last driver in points in the playoffs. Las Vegas was an example of how a decent day in the Round of 8 can be costly. Before Las Vegas, Buescher sat 3 points below the cutline. Now, Buescher is 23 points below the cutline. While he is not quite in must win territory yet, Buescher has his back against the wall. This team needs to turn the trend and gather stage points. Buescher’s biggest weakness this season has been collecting stage points. If Buescher wants to avoid a must win situation at Martinsville, he needs to run Top-5 for all three stages.
Many are not expecting much from Buescher at Homestead. His best finish at the track was a thirteenth last year. Compared to the other playoff drivers, it seems that the RFK driver will be a longshot. However, Buescher did have a great run going in 2021 at Homestead. He won Stage 1 and ran inside the Top-10 consistently during Stage 2. Last year, Brad Keselowski ran Top-5 at Homestead, which means the RFK cars should have speed at Homestead. The speed was there for Buescher at Las Vegas. Buescher is capable of running Top-5 this weekend, as long as his pit box is not slick again. Although many do not think Homestead will a good race for Buescher, he could be a great dark horse candidate.
