To finish off the Round of 12, the NASCAR Cup Series will take on its final road course in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The ROVAL has turned into a bit of a fan favorite road course since its inception in 2018. With the current layout, the race has a chaotic nature to it. For an example of this chaos, look no further than the inaugural event where Turn 1 became a rest stop and Ryan Blaney won the race from third after Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr wrecked themselves in the final chicane. As the elimination race for the Round of 12, it is the third different style of track. After the intermediate Texas and superspeedway Talladega, a road course to test the drivers one last time before the Round of 8 seems fitting.
As for the playoffs, four drivers enter the ROVAL hovering within 10 points of each around the cutline. After a lackluster Talladega from much of the playoff drivers, the Bank of America ROVAL 400 will be a fight for points. With NASCAR’s decision to revive the stage cautions, the strategy play for the ROVAL will be interesting to see play out. Drivers will seemingly have to decide between stage points and going for the win. For a bulk of the playoff drivers, that will mean sacrificing a win to secure as many points as possible. Meanwhile, the drivers already clinched or not in the playoffs can focus on winning the race. Although the ROVAL can offer more cautions to scramble the running order, how will this Sunday play out? Who will be the five drivers to watch for the ROVAL?
If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kyle Busch
Once again, Kyle Busch failed to have a clean weekend at Talladega. While no fault of his own, Busch got caught behind Ricky Stenhouse Jr when the 47 car ran out of gas. Damage from the incident left Busch struggling throughout the closing laps. Looking ahead to the ROVAL, Busch is a strong road racer. This season, Busch has three Top-5s on road courses with two seconds at COTA and Sonoma. As for the ROVAL, Busch finished Top-5 last year in the NextGen car. While Busch might not be the betting favorite heading into this weekend, he has a strong chance of winning Sunday. However, it depends on how clean Busch can keep his car throughout the Bank of America ROVAL 400.
Out of the four drivers below the cutline, Kyle Busch has the clearest strategy on Sunday. Sitting 26 points behind Brad Keselowski, he is essentially in must win territory. While the points gap is not insurmountable, Busch would also have to leapfrog three other drivers to point his way in. With the theory that the four drivers (at least) ahead of him will go for points, Busch should be thinking of attempting to upset the field with a win.
Michael McDowell
Out of the non-playoff drivers, Michael McDowell is the driver to watch this weekend. McDowell won at the Indy Road Course earlier this season. With his pedigree in the craft, there is little reason to believe that he cannot claim a second victory this Sunday. Especially since McDowell is out of the playoffs, the 34 team can focus on winning the race rather than attempting to score stage points. McDowell benefits from NASCAR’s decision to bring back the stage cautions. There are strong road racers in the playoffs who will chase points rather than the win.
With that said, Michael McDowell has been surprisingly pedestrian at the ROVAL. His average finish is a measly 21.0. McDowell’s best finish is twelfth back in 2019. As mentioned earlier, the ROVAL has more chaos compared to other NASCAR road courses. Only COTA’s Turn 1 can truly compared to the overall experience that the ROVAL brings. McDowell will have to keep his nose clean if he wants to compete for the win. If he is able to, McDowell will be fun to watch Sunday.
Chris Buescher
The Round of 12 has been disappointing for Chris Buescher thus far. At Texas, Buescher’s Top-5 run was ruined by a late pit stop on a caution and messy restarts. As for Talladega, Buescher (and his RFK teammate) never demonstrated their superspeedway strength. Despite lacking a Top-10 in this round, Buescher still sits 19 points above the cutline heading into the ROVAL. With his road racing ability being one of the best in the Cup Series, Buescher theoretically has a straight forward path to the Round of 8.
With an average road course finish of eighth this season, Buescher has continued his momentum on these tracks. His worst finish this season is eleventh at the Indy Road Course. The past two trips to the ROVAL has seen Buescher finish inside the Top-10. As for this weekend, the big question for Buescher and his team is what strategy to play. With his 19 point cushion (and three driver buffer), Buescher should be safe with a strong Top-10 run without going for stage points. However, there is safety in claiming the points. Perhaps the team will do a little of both. Buescher could run Stage 1 looking to gather as many points as possible then go after the win from that caution forward.
Chase Elliott
If the Cup Series is on a road course, then Chase Elliott will be one to watch. However, Chase Elliott has not flashed the usual Hendrick speed this season. While his average finish of 12.1 would rank him third this season, Elliott has not run with winning speed in any race this season outside of the superspeedways. Elliott has been a consistent Top-10 car each week. However, his runs have been similar to how Alex Bowman was running to begin the season: consistency without dominance. Compared to William Byron and Kyle Larson, Elliott has clearly taken the backseat this season.
Now, that can change in one race, especially at the Charlotte ROVAL. Elliott has won the ROVAL twice in his five starts. While last season was a bit of letdown, Elliott had nothing to race for after winning Talladega to clinch his Round of 8 spot. While Elliott is not in the driver playoffs, his car is in the owner playoffs. Currently, the 9 team sits 20 points above the cutline. Elliott will look to keep the 9 team in the playoffs, so unlike last year, he has something to race for this weekend. Could the ROVAL be a turn around for Chase Elliott? If he flashes any sort of speed, surely the camera will find him Sunday.
Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick might be the most interesting playoff driver to watch heading into this weekend. If not for the playoff point situation, Reddick would be a clear favorite to win. He has been one of the best drivers on the road courses this season. He won COTA in the spring and has shown speed at every other road course. Plus, he has found success at the ROVAL. In three starts, Reddick’s worst finish is twelfth. Under normal circumstances, Reddick would be gunning for the win.
However, Tyler Reddick heads into the Bank of America ROVAL 400 only 2 points below the cutline. Based on his postrace interview at Talladega, it seems that the team will be looking to win the stages more so than the race itself. The last driver to win a stage and the race at the ROVAL was Chase Elliott in 2019. However, that was the same race where he ran into the Turn 1 wall early (which might have thrown his strategy off).
With stage cautions, it will be difficult for a driver to commit to competing for the stage wins and the race win. Reddick is a talented road course racer, but there will be too many strong road runners who will be utilizing the opposite strategy. While a win might be out of reach, the main goal for Reddick is to advance into the Round of 8. With only Brad Keselowski ahead of him, it seems like a very attainable goal.
