Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Homestead

Last week Kyle Larson became the first Cup driver to clinch a spot in the Championship 4 with his dominating win at Las Vegas. This week we head to Homestead where we may see another driver clinch their spot with a win, but probably not based on points. However, it is possible. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Kyle Larson

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) William Byron

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 49+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 47+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 33+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 32+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 26+ points more than Chris Buescher
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Martin Truex Jr.

• • • Driver not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • Get 55 pts (2nd place finish + 2 Stage Wins) and Denny Hamlin finish last w/ 0 Stage Pts
      • 53+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 40+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 39+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 33+ points more than Chris Buescher
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t clinch

4) Denny Hamlin

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) Christopher Bell

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) Tyler Reddick

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) Ryan Blaney

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) Chris Buescher

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs any of the 5 following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.11
      • 47+ points more than the No.20
      • 33+ points more than the No.45
      • 32+ points more than the No.12
      • 26+ points more than the No.17
      • Be within 14 points of the No.9
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11

• • • Owner not mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.20
      • 40+ points more than the No.45
      • 39+ points more than the No.12
      • 33+ points more than the No.17
      • Be within 7 points of the No.9
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t clinch

4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

5) 23XI Racing No.45

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

6) Team Penske No.12

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

7) RFK Racing No.17

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9

• • • Only way to clinch is to win