Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Martinsville

Christopher Bell took home the win at Homestead clinching the 2nd playoff spot in the Championship 4. This week is Martinsville where drivers will be aggressive trying to make sure they aren’t one of the four eliminated from Championship contention. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Kyle Larson

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Christopher Bell

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

3) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 7th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 19 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 29 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 36 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 36 points of Denny Hamlin
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Reddick/Truex Jr./Hamlin wins
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if Buescher wins

4) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 6th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 20+ points more than William Byron
      • Be within 9 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 16 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 16 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 42 points of Chris Buescher
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 30+ points more than William Byron
      • 11+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Be within 6 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 6 points of Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 32 points of Chris Buescher
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Martin Truex Jr.
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 29th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than William Byron
      • 18+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 8+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 1+ point more than Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 25 points of Chris Buescher
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 10th, 30th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than William Byron
      • 18+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 8+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 1+ point more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 25 points of Chris Buescher
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Chris Buescher
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 21st

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 34+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 27+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 27+ points more than Denny Hamlin
    • Driver below cut wins: Must Win to get into Championship 4

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

3) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 7th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 19 points of the No.12
      • Be within 29 points of the No.45
      • Be within 36 points of the No.11
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.45/No.11 wins
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if the No.17/No.19 wins

4) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 6th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 20+ points more than the No.24
      • Be within 9 points of the No.45
      • Be within 16 points of the No.11
      • Be within 42 points of the No.17
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.45/No.11/No.17 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.9 wins

5) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 30+ points more than the No.24
      • 11+ points more than the No.12
      • Be within 6 points of the No.11
      • Be within 32 points of the No.17
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.11/No.17 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.9 wins

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 10th, 30th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than the No.24
      • 18+ points more than the No.12
      • 8+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 25 points of the No.17
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.45/No.17 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.9 wins

7) RFK Racing No.17
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 21st

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than the No.12
      • 34+ points more than the No.45
      • 27+ points more than the No.11
      • Be within 33 points of the No.9
    • Owner below cut wins: Must Win to get into Championship 4

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 15th, 32nd

• • • Must Win to get into Championship 4