Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Roval

After 2 races in the Round of 12 we have two drivers clinched to the Round of 8, both based on wins in this round. This leaves 6 more spots available based on points as we head to the next wild card race this round, the Charlotte Roval. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) William Byron

• • • Clinched based on win at Texas

2) Ryan Blaney

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

3) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 5th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 6 points (31st place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 27 points of Christopher Bell
      • Be within 30 points of Chris Buescher
      • Be within 32 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 34 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 47 points of Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 49 points of Tyler Reddick
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Reddick wins
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if any other driver below cut wins

4) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 14th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 29+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • Be within 2 points of Chris Buescher
      • Be within 4 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 6 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 19 points of Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 21 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 28 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 29 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 45 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Chris Buescher
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 14th, 19th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 37 points (2nd place finish + 2 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 32+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 4+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • Be within 1 point of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 3 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 16 points of Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 18 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 25 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 26 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 42 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Martin Truex Jr.
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 17th, 18th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 34+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 6+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 3+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • Be within 1 point of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 14 points of Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 16 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 23 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 24 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 40 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 15th, 31st

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 36+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 8+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 5+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 3+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 12 points of Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 14 points of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 21 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 22 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 38 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Brad Keselowski
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 32nd

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 21+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 18+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 16+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 14+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • Be within 1 point of Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 8 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 9 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 25 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 16th, 25th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 23+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 20+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 18+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 16+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 3+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 6 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 8 points of Ross Chastain
      • Be within 23 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) Bubba Wallace
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 23rd

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 29+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 26+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 24+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 22+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 10+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 8+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 0+ points more than Ross Chastain
      • Be within 16 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) Ross Chastain
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 37th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 30+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 27+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 25+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 23+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 11+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 9+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 2+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 15 points of Kyle Busch
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Kyle Busch
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 25th, 34th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 44+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 42+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 40+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 27+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 25+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 18+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 17+ points more than Ross Chastain
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Clinched based on win at Texas

2) Team Penske No.12

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 5th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 27 points of the No.20
      • Be within 27 points of the No.9
      • Be within 30 points of the No.17
      • Be within 32 points of the No.19
      • Be within 34 points of the No.5
      • Be within 47 points of the No.6
      • Be within 49 points of the No.45
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Reddick wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any other driver below cut wins

4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 14th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 29+ points more than the No.11
      • 1+ point more than the No.9
      • Be within 2 points of the No.17
      • Be within 4 points of the No.19
      • Be within 6 points of the No.5
      • Be within 19 points of the No.6
      • Be within 21 points of the No.45
      • Be within 29 points of the No.1
      • Be within 45 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 11th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 29+ points more than the No.11
      • 1+ point more than the No.9
      • Be within 2 points of the No.17
      • Be within 4 points of the No.19
      • Be within 6 points of the No.5
      • Be within 19 points of the No.6
      • Be within 21 points of the No.45
      • Be within 29 points of the No.1
      • Be within 45 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) RFK Racing No.17
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 14th, 19th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 32+ points more than the No.11
      • 4+ points more than the No.20
      • 4+ points more than the No.9
      • Be within 1 point of the No.19
      • Be within 3 points of the No.5
      • Be within 16 points of the No.6
      • Be within 18 points of the No.45
      • Be within 26 points of the No.1
      • Be within 42 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 52 points (2nd place finish + 17 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 17th, 18th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 34+ points more than the No.11
      • 6+ points more than the No.20
      • 6+ points more than the No.9
      • 3+ points more than the No.17
      • Be within 1 point of the No.5
      • Be within 14 points of the No.6
      • Be within 16 points of the No.45
      • Be within 24 points of the No.1
      • Be within 40 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 15th, 31st

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 36+ points more than the No.11
      • 8+ points more than the No.20
      • 8+ points more than the No.9
      • 5+ points more than the No.17
      • 3+ points more than the No.19
      • Be within 12 points of the No.6
      • Be within 14 points of the No.45
      • Be within 22 points of the No.1
      • Be within 38 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

9) RFK Racing No.6
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 32nd

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.11
      • 21+ points more than the No.20
      • 21+ points more than the No.9
      • 18+ points more than the No.17
      • 16+ points more than the No.19
      • 14+ points more than the No.5
      • Be within 1 point of the No.45
      • Be within 9 points of the No.1
      • Be within 25 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

10) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 16th, 25th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than the No.11
      • 23+ points more than the No.20
      • 23+ points more than the No.9
      • 20+ points more than the No.17
      • 18+ points more than the No.19
      • 16+ points more than the No.5
      • 3+ points more than the No.6
      • Be within 8 points of the No.1
      • Be within 23 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

11) Trackhouse Racing No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 37th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 30+ points more than the No.20
      • 30+ points more than the No.9
      • 27+ points more than the No.17
      • 25+ points more than the No.19
      • 23+ points more than the No.5
      • 11+ points more than the No.6
      • 9+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 15 points of the No.8
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

12) Richard Childress Racing No.8
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 25th, 34th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 47+ points more than the No.20
      • 47+ points more than the No.9
      • 44+ points more than the No.17
      • 42+ points more than the No.19
      • 40+ points more than the No.5
      • 27+ points more than the No.6
      • 25+ points more than the No.45
      • 17+ points more than the No.1
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above