Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Martinsville

Last week Sam Mayer became the only Xfinity driver/owner to officially clinch their spot in the Championship 4 with his win at Homestead. This week there is a tight points battle for the final 2 spots, maybe 3 if John Hunter Nemechek fails epically, but who will take the final spots and have a shot at the title in Phoenix? Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Sam Mayer

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

2) John Hunter Nemechek
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 3rd

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 11 points (26th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 40 points of Cole Custer
      • Be within 41 points of Austin Hill
      • Be within 44 points of Justin Allgaier
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Allgaier wins
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Smith/Smith/Creed wins

3) Cole Custer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 13th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 42+ points more than John Hunter Nemechek
      • 1+ point more than Austin Hill
      • Be within 2 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 48 points of Sammy Smith
      • Be within 53 points of Chandler Smith
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Allgaier/Smith/Smith wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Creed wins

4) Austin Hill
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 7th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 42+ points more than John Hunter Nemechek
      • 1+ point more than Cole Custer
      • Be within 2 points of Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 48 points of Sammy Smith
      • Be within 53 points of Chandler Smith
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Allgaier/Smith/Smith wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Creed wins

5) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 15th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 45+ points more than John Hunter Nemechek
      • 4+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 4+ points more than Austin Hill
      • Be within 45 points of Sammy Smith
      • Be within 50 points of Chandler Smith
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Smith/Smith wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Creed wins

6) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 17th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 50+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 47+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • Be within 4 points of Chandler Smith
      • Be within 15 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Chandler Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 34th

• • • Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than Cole Custer
      • 54+ points more than Austin Hill
      • 51+ points more than Justin Allgaier
      • 6+ points more than Sammy Smith
      • Be within 10 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 15th, 26th

• • • Must Win to get into Championship 4

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) JR Motorsports No.1

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 3rd

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 11 points (26th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 40 points of the No.00
      • Be within 41 points of the No.21
      • Be within 44 points of the No.7
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.7 wins
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if the No.10/No.18/No.16 wins

3) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 13th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 42+ points more than the No.20
      • 1+ point more than the No.21
      • Be within 2 points of the No.7
      • Be within 32 points of the No.10
      • Be within 48 points of the No.18
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.7/No.10/No.18 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if the No.16 wins

4) Richard Childress Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 7th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 42+ points more than the No.20
      • 1+ point more than the No.00
      • Be within 2 points of the No.7
      • Be within 32 points of the No.10
      • Be within 48 points of the No.18
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.7/No.10/No.18 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if the No.16 wins

5) JR Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 15th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 45+ points more than the No.20
      • 4+ points more than the No.00
      • 4+ points more than the No.21
      • Be within 29 points of the No.10
      • Be within 45 points of the No.18
      • Be within 52 points of the No.16
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Kaulig Racing No.10
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 9th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 34+ points more than the No.00
      • 34+ points more than the No.21
      • 30+ points more than the No.7
      • Be within 15 points of the No.18
      • Be within 22 points of the No.16
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 17th

• • • Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than the No.00
      • 50+ points more than the No.21
      • 47+ points more than the No.7
      • 17+ points more than the No.10
      • Be within 6 points of the No.16
    • Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Kaulig Racing No.16
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 34th

• • • Must Win to get into Championship 4