After 2 crazy races for playoff races in the Xfinity Series we’ve seen 3 drivers and essentially 3 owners clinch a spot in the next round. Next up is the round finale, the Charlotte Roval, after this race only 8 drivers/owners will be alive for their respective championships. Who will it be? Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out.
*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
1) John Hunter Nemechek
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- Clinched based on win at Texas
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2) Justin Allgaier
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- Clinched based on win at Bristol
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3) Cole Custer
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- Clinched based on points
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4) Austin Hill
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 33rd
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 12 points (25th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the following scenarios
- Be within 11 points of Chandler Smith
- Be within 25 points of Sammy Smith
- Be within 34 points of Sheldon Creed
- Be within 42 points of Daniel Hemric
- Be within 43 points of Parker Kligerman
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 13 points (24th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Kligerman wins
- Needs 2 of the scenarios above if any other driver below cut wins
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5) Chandler Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 5th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 24 points (13th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the following scenarios
- 13+ points more than Austin Hill
- Be within 13 points of Sammy Smith
- Be within 22 points of Sheldon Creed
- Be within 30 points of Daniel Hemric
- Be within 31 points of Parker Kligerman
- Be within 49 points of Jeb Burton
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 25 points (12th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Kligerman/Burton wins
- Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any other driver below cut wins
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6) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 9th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 26+ points more than Austin Hill
- 15+ points more than Chandler Smith
- Be within 8 points of Sheldon Creed
- Be within 16 points of Daniel Hemric
- Be within 17 points of Parker Kligerman
- Be within 35 points of Jeb Burton
- Be within 43 points of Josh Berry
- Be within 50 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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7) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 11th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 36+ points more than Austin Hill
- 24+ points more than Chandler Smith
- 10+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Be within 7 points of Daniel Hemric
- Be within 8 points of Parker Kligerman
- Be within 26 points of Jeb Burton
- Be within 34 points of Josh Berry
- Be within 41 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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8) Daniel Hemric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 24th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 55 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 43+ points more than Austin Hill
- 32+ points more than Chandler Smith
- 18+ points more than Sammy Smith
- 9+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 0+ points more than Parker Kligerman
- Be within 18 points of Jeb Burton
- Be within 27 points of Josh Berry
- Be within 34 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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Cutline
9) Parker Kligerman
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 31st
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 44+ points more than Austin Hill
- 33+ points more than Chandler Smith
- 19+ points more than Sammy Smith
- 10+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 2+ points more than Daniel Hemric
- Be within 17 points of Jeb Burton
- Be within 25 points of Josh Berry
- Be within 33 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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10) Jeb Burton
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 31st
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 51+ points more than Chandler Smith
- 37+ points more than Sammy Smith
- 28+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 20+ points more than Daniel Hemric
- 19+ points more than Parker Kligerman
- Be within 7 points of Josh Berry
- Be within 14 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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11) Josh Berry
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 27th, 36th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 45+ points more than Sammy Smith
- 36+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 28+ points more than Daniel Hemric
- 27+ points more than Parker Kligerman
- 9+ points more than Jeb Burton
- Be within 6 points of Sam Mayer
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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12) Sam Mayer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 35th, 38th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 52+ points more than Sammy Smith
- 43+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 35+ points more than Daniel Hemric
- 24+ points more than Parker Kligerman
- 16+ points more than Jeb Burton
- 8+ points more than Josh Berry
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
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- Clinched based on win at Texas
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2) JR Motorsports No.7
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- Clinched based on win at Bristol
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3) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00
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- Clinches once the engine starts on Saturday
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4) Richard Childress Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 33rd
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the following scenarios
- Be within 13 points of the No.16
- Be within 25 points of the No.18
- Be within 29 points of the No.19
- Be within 35 points of the No.2
- Be within 39 points of the No.10
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 20 points (17th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.10 wins
- Needs 2 of the scenarios above if any other owner below cut wins
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5) Kaulig Racing No.16
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 5th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the following scenarios
- 15+ points more than the No.21
- Be within 11 points of the No.18
- Be within 15 points of the No.19
- Be within 21 points of the No.2
- Be within 25 points of the No.10
- Be within 47 points of the No.27
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.10/No.27 wins
- Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any other owner below cut wins
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6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 9th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 26+ points more than the No.21
- 13+ points more than the No.16
- Be within 3 points of the No.19
- Be within 9 points of the No.2
- Be within 13 points of the No.10
- Be within 35 points of the No.27
- Be within 44 points of the No.8
- Be within 51 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 33rd
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 30+ points more than the No.21
- 17+ points more than the No.16
- 5+ points more than the No.18
- Be within 5 points of the No.2
- Be within 9 points of the No.10
- Be within 31 points of the No.27
- Be within 40 points of the No.8
- Be within 47 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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8) Richard Childress Racing No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 11th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 52 points (2nd place finish + 17 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 37+ points more than the No.21
- 23+ points more than the No.16
- 11+ points more than the No.18
- 7+ points more than the No.19
- Be within 3 points of the No.10
- Be within 25 points of the No.27
- Be within 34 points of the No.8
- Be within 41 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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Cutline
9) Kaulig Racing No.10
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 24th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 41+ points more than the No.21
- 26+ points more than the No.16
- 15+ points more than the No.18
- 11+ points more than the No.19
- 5+ points more than the No.2
- Be within 21 points of the No.27
- Be within 30 points of the No.8
- Be within 37 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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10) Jordan Anderson Racing No.27
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 13th, 31st
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 49+ points more than the No.16
- 37+ points more than the No.18
- 33+ points more than the No.19
- 27+ points more than the No.2
- 23+ points more than the No.10
- Be within 8 points of the No.8
- Be within 15 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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11) JR Motorsports No.8
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 27th, 36th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 46+ points more than the No.18
- 42+ points more than the No.19
- 36+ points more than the No.2
- 32+ points more than the No.10
- 10+ points more than the No.27
- Be within 6 points of the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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12) JR Motorsports No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 35th, 38th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 53+ points more than the No.18
- 49+ points more than the No.19
- 43+ points more than the No.2
- 39+ points more than the No.10
- 17+ points more than the No.27
- 8+ points more than the No.1
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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