At Talladega last week we saw some playoff drivers have issues, some just have bad runs, and even saw one win in Ryan Blaney as he punched his ticket to the Round of 8. This week we conclude the Round of 8 at the Charlotte Roval where 4 drivers and owners will be eliminated from championship contention. I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 6 based on the Playoff bubble, 1 based on Road Course stats, and 1 based on their overall Roval stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 and ranking through 31 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight the 2023 Playoff stats, notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2023 Road Course (right & left turns) statistics and Roval statistics.
P = Playoff Driver
OP = Owner Playoff Driver
6th in Points/7th in Owner Points – Martin Truex Jr. (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.03 | 5th of 35 | 108th of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.38% | T21st of 35 | T292nd of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 65.84% | 9th of 35 | 186th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 93.0 | 4th of 35 | 146th of 776‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T2nd of 63 | T56th of 1383 |
| Poles | 1 | T7th of 63 | T125th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | T4th of 63 | T68th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 8 | 3rd of 63 | T50th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T4th of 63 | T111th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 15 | T4th of 63 | T148th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T4th of 35 | T129th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T3rd of 63 | T17th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 35 | 6th of 63 | T47th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 205 | 5th of 63 | T48th of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 21 | 3rd of 63 | T18th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 21.6(27th), 21.51% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 59.2(25th), Best 17th, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 83.21%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 1 Stage T10, 0.2 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 12.6(T8th), 78.11% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 95.86(6th), Best 1st, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 99.77%, Led 11.75% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 17th, Started 19th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 71 Laps in Top15 (63.39% of laps he ran), had 75.2 Driver Rating (ranked 16th)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 14.8 Avg. Finish (Ranks 12th)
- Best Finish: 7th, Worst: 29th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 67.52% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 9th)
- 89.22 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 11th)
- Led 1.09% of laps he’s run (% ranks 15th)
- 0 Top 5’s
- 2 Top 10’s, 40.0% (% ranks T12th)
- 3 Top 15’s, 60.0% (% ranks T11th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 20.0% (% ranks T8th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 5 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T7th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2023 season stats and because he’s only 15 points above the owner points cutline
– At Talladega last week Truex ran just 31% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up P18
– He’s now finished 6 straight races out of the Top 15
– 9 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 93.0 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 8 Top 3’s, and 6 Stage Wins
– Since the start of the playoffs his Avg. Finish has gone from 1st best (11.38) to 5th best (13.03) and his Avg. Driver Rating has gone from 1st best (99.5) to 4th best (93.0)
– In the 5 playoff races he has the 27th best Avg. Finish at 21.6 and a best finish of 17th
– He’s ran just 21.51% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races, has a putrid 59.2 Avg. Driver Rating and has gotten just 1 Stage T10 in the 10 playoff stages
– On Road Courses this year he has a 12.6 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, but also just 1 Top 10 in 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 78% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 95.86 Avg. Driver Rating, and 0 Stage Wins
– At the Roval last year Truex ran 63% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Pts, had the 16th best Driver Rating (75.2), and finished 17th
– In his 5 career Cup Roval races he has a 14.8 Avg. Finish with a best finish of 7th and 2 Top 10’s
– He’s gotten a Stage T10 in half the stages he’s run here, has an 89.22 Avg. Driver Rating, and only led 1.09% of his laps here
Outlook for this weekend
Truex’s 2023 Ranks above are good enough that he should be in the Round of 8, but his playoff stats are that of a driver who should be 25th in points. It’s been rough for Truex and this week may not be much better as other than Sonoma he’s been so-so on Road Courses this year, and the same goes for him at the Roval in his career. I still think that Truex makes the Round of 8, but I see just a 8th-16th place finish for him this weekend.
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2023 season stats and because he’s only 15 points above the owner points cutline
– At Talladega last week Truex ran just 31% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up P18
– He’s now finished 6 straight races out of the Top 15
– 9 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 93.0 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 8 Top 3’s, and 6 Stage Wins
– Since the start of the playoffs his Avg. Finish has gone from 1st best (11.38) to 5th best (13.03) and his Avg. Driver Rating has gone from 1st best (99.5) to 4th best (93.0)
– In the 5 playoff races he has the 27th best Avg. Finish at 21.6 and a best finish of 17th
– He’s ran just 21.51% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races, has a putrid 59.2 Avg. Driver Rating and has gotten just 1 Stage T10 in the 10 playoff stages
– On Road Courses this year he has a 12.6 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, but also just 1 Top 10 in 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 78% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 95.86 Avg. Driver Rating, and 0 Stage Wins
– At the Roval last year Truex ran 63% of his laps in the Top 15, got 0 Stage Pts, had the 16th best Driver Rating (75.2), and finished 17th
– In his 5 career Cup Roval races he has a 14.8 Avg. Finish with a best finish of 7th and 2 Top 10’s
– He’s gotten a Stage T10 in half the stages he’s run here, has an 89.22 Avg. Driver Rating, and only led 1.09% of his laps here
Outlook for this weekend
Truex’s 2023 Ranks above are good enough that he should be in the Round of 8, but his playoff stats are that of a driver who should be 25th in points. It’s been rough for Truex and this week may not be much better as other than Sonoma he’s been so-so on Road Courses this year, and the same goes for him at the Roval in his career. I still think that Truex makes the Round of 8, but I see just a 8th-16th place finish for him this weekend.
7th in Points/8th in Owner Points – Kyle Larson (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 15.16 | 10th of 35 | T218th of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.09% | 23rd of 35 | T318th of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 71.75% | 3rd of 35 | 125th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 94.98 | 3rd of 35 | 115th of 776‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T2nd of 63 | T56th of 1383 |
| Poles | 2 | T4th of 63 | T61st of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 6 | 3rd of 63 | T55th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 7 | 4th of 63 | T83rd of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 13 | T1st of 63 | T33rd of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 15 | T4th of 63 | T148th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 7 | 34th of 35 | T709th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 5 | T5th of 63 | T24th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 38 | T2nd of 63 | T26th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 233 | 3rd of 63 | 27th of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 20 | 4th of 63 | T20th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 10.6(5th), 86.54% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 113.12(1st), Best 1st, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 98.81%, Led 17.44% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 2 Stage Wins, 8 Stage T10’s, 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage, 7 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 12.0(7th), 76.55% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 93.54(8th), Best 4th, Worst 26th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.6 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 35th, Started 18th, Led 0 laps, Finished 6th in Stage 1 and 3rd in Stage 2, ran 53 Laps in Top15 (49.53% of laps he ran), had 63.8 Driver Rating (ranked 22nd)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 18.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks 19th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 35th
- Completed 98.86% of laps (% ranks 30th)
- 69.35% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 8th)
- 100.43 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 4th)
- Led 13.82% of laps he’s run (% ranks 3rd)
- 1 Win, 25.0% (% ranks 3rd)
- 1 Top 10, 25.0% (% ranks 17th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 50.0% (% ranks T13th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T22nd)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Stage Wins, 25.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 6 Stage T10’s, 75.0% (% ranks 4th)
- 5.0 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 3rd)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his playoff stats through 5 races and because he’s only 13 points above the owner cutline and 15 points above the driver cutline
– Larson was one of 3 drivers last week to run 80+% of their laps in the Top 15 and was up front late until the last lap wreck dropped him to 15th
– This was his best finish in the 6 Superspeedway races this year
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 71.75 Laps in Top 15%, 94.98 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Top 2’s, and 38 Stage T10’s
– His 7 DNF’s this year are 2nd most behind only Austin Dillon (10)
– In 5 playoff races he has a 10.6 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 5’s and 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– His 113.12 Avg. Driver Rating and 86.54 Laps in Top 15% in the playoffs are the best of any driver
– In the 5 Road Course races this year he’s ran 76.55% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a decent 93.54 Avg. Driver Rating, but has led 0 laps
– In the 5 races he has a 12.0 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 10’s, but only 1 Top 5
– At the Roval last year Larson ran less than half his laps in the Top 15 and had the 22nd best Driver Rating (63.8) before hitting the wall and finishing 35th
– He’s ran 4 career races at the Roval and has an 18.5 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, but more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– In these 4 races he’s only ran 69% of his laps in the Top 15, but has led 14% of his laps and has a 100.43 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Like Truex above Larson’s 2023 stats clearly say he deserves a spot in the Round of 8, but unlike Truex Larson’s playoff stats say that as well. However this round has him too close for comfort to the cutlines. He’s performed decent enough on Road Courses this year, but overall the Roval has been a struggle for him to finish good. This weekend I see Larson chasing Stage Pts getting 10+ Stage Pts and finishing somewhere between 9th and 15th.
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his playoff stats through 5 races and because he’s only 13 points above the owner cutline and 15 points above the driver cutline
– Larson was one of 3 drivers last week to run 80+% of their laps in the Top 15 and was up front late until the last lap wreck dropped him to 15th
– This was his best finish in the 6 Superspeedway races this year
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 71.75 Laps in Top 15%, 94.98 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Top 2’s, and 38 Stage T10’s
– His 7 DNF’s this year are 2nd most behind only Austin Dillon (10)
– In 5 playoff races he has a 10.6 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 5’s and 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– His 113.12 Avg. Driver Rating and 86.54 Laps in Top 15% in the playoffs are the best of any driver
– In the 5 Road Course races this year he’s ran 76.55% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a decent 93.54 Avg. Driver Rating, but has led 0 laps
– In the 5 races he has a 12.0 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 10’s, but only 1 Top 5
– At the Roval last year Larson ran less than half his laps in the Top 15 and had the 22nd best Driver Rating (63.8) before hitting the wall and finishing 35th
– He’s ran 4 career races at the Roval and has an 18.5 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, but more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– In these 4 races he’s only ran 69% of his laps in the Top 15, but has led 14% of his laps and has a 100.43 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Like Truex above Larson’s 2023 stats clearly say he deserves a spot in the Round of 8, but unlike Truex Larson’s playoff stats say that as well. However this round has him too close for comfort to the cutlines. He’s performed decent enough on Road Courses this year, but overall the Roval has been a struggle for him to finish good. This weekend I see Larson chasing Stage Pts getting 10+ Stage Pts and finishing somewhere between 9th and 15th.
8th in Points/9th in Owner Points – Brad Keselowski (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.61 | 7th of 35 | 142nd of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.4% | 1st of 35 | 29th of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 66.16% | 8th of 35 | 184th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 81.61 | 10th of 35 | 272nd of 776‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T15th of 63 | T276th of 1383 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 63 | T265th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T11th of 63 | T175th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 2 | T13th of 63 | T247th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 6 | T12th of 63 | T207th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 15 | T4th of 63 | T148th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T8th of 35 | T277th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T3rd of 63 | T17th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 31 | 7th of 63 | T65th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 171 | 8th of 63 | 63rd of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 6 | 13th of 63 | T78th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 12.4(7th), 78.74% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 95.18(5th), Best 6th, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 83.21%, Led 1.79% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 2 Stage Wins, 7 Stage T10’s, 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage, 2 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 5 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 22.0(T28th), 21.15% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 55.84(29th), Best 15th, Worst 35th, Laps Completed 95.63%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 1 Top 15, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 0.7 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 14th, Started 31st, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 25 Laps in Top15 (22.32% of laps he ran), had 64.0 Driver Rating (ranked 21st)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 17.6 Avg. Finish (Ranks T16th)
- Best Finish: 5th, Worst: 31st
- Completed 98.91% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 54.43% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 15th)
- 83.58 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 15th)
- Led 7.2% of laps he’s run (% ranks 6th)
- 0 Top 3’s
- 1 Top 5, 20.0% (% ranks T11th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 40.0% (% ranks T16th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 20.0% (% ranks T8th)
- 1 DNF, 20.0% (% ranks T30th)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 1.9 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 11th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Brad Keselowski is notable because he’s only 2 points above the driver cutline and is 13 points below the owner cutline
– Last week Keselowski had high hopes but ended up running just 54% of his laps in the Top 15 and wrecking out for the 2nd time this year, finishing 32nd
– This was only his 3rd DNF this year, first since COTA in late March
– 8 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T8th or better including his 13.61 Avg. Finish, 15 Top 10’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 31 Stage T10’s
– Even with his DNF this weekend his 99.4 Completed Laps% is still 1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races he has 4 Top 10’s with only 1 finish out of the Top 20, but 0 Top 5’s
– He’s ran 79% of his laps in the 2 races in the Top 15 with a 95.18 Avg. Driver Rating and 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In 5 Road Course races this year he has a best finish of 15th with a 22.0 Avg. Finish and more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– In the 5 races he’s ran a measly 21% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a not so good 55.84 Avg. Driver Rating
– At the Roval last year Keselowski ran only 22% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 21st best Driver Rating (64.0), and finished just 14th
– In 5 races at the Roval he has a 17.6 Avg. Finish with 1 Top 5, but only 2 Top 15’s
– He’s gotten only 1.9 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races and has ran just 54% of his laps here in the Top 15
Outlook for this weekend
An unfortunate wreck at Talladega has Keselowski on the brink of elimination this week which is unfortunate as his 2023 stats above are worthy of a Round of 8 spot. Even more unfortunate is that his playoff stats have been really good as well, but what’s not good are his Road Course stats. On these tracks he’s struggled this year and his Roval stats aren’t exactly promising either. With all of this I think Keselowski must go for Stage Pts this weekend, but ultimately misses the Round of 8 after an 11th-25th place finish.
– Brad Keselowski is notable because he’s only 2 points above the driver cutline and is 13 points below the owner cutline
– Last week Keselowski had high hopes but ended up running just 54% of his laps in the Top 15 and wrecking out for the 2nd time this year, finishing 32nd
– This was only his 3rd DNF this year, first since COTA in late March
– 8 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T8th or better including his 13.61 Avg. Finish, 15 Top 10’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 31 Stage T10’s
– Even with his DNF this weekend his 99.4 Completed Laps% is still 1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races he has 4 Top 10’s with only 1 finish out of the Top 20, but 0 Top 5’s
– He’s ran 79% of his laps in the 2 races in the Top 15 with a 95.18 Avg. Driver Rating and 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In 5 Road Course races this year he has a best finish of 15th with a 22.0 Avg. Finish and more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– In the 5 races he’s ran a measly 21% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a not so good 55.84 Avg. Driver Rating
– At the Roval last year Keselowski ran only 22% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 21st best Driver Rating (64.0), and finished just 14th
– In 5 races at the Roval he has a 17.6 Avg. Finish with 1 Top 5, but only 2 Top 15’s
– He’s gotten only 1.9 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races and has ran just 54% of his laps here in the Top 15
Outlook for this weekend
An unfortunate wreck at Talladega has Keselowski on the brink of elimination this week which is unfortunate as his 2023 stats above are worthy of a Round of 8 spot. Even more unfortunate is that his playoff stats have been really good as well, but what’s not good are his Road Course stats. On these tracks he’s struggled this year and his Roval stats aren’t exactly promising either. With all of this I think Keselowski must go for Stage Pts this weekend, but ultimately misses the Round of 8 after an 11th-25th place finish.
9th in Points/10th in Owner Points – Tyler Reddick (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 16.1 | 14th of 35 | T261st of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.38% | T21st of 35 | T292nd of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 69.23% | 4th of 35 | 148th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 89.42 | 6th of 35 | 184th of 776‡ |
| Wins | 2 | T7th of 63 | T92nd of 1383 |
| Poles | 1 | T7th of 63 | T125th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | T4th of 63 | T68th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 6 | T5th of 63 | T102nd of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T4th of 63 | T111th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 13 | T12th of 63 | T208th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T8th of 35 | T277th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 5 | T5th of 63 | T24th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 36 | 5th of 63 | T36th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 225 | 4th of 63 | T32nd of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 15 | 7th of 63 | T34th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 11.8(6th), 69.94% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 95.94(4th), Best 1st, Worst 25th, Laps Completed 99.94%, Led 8.18% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 7 Stage T10’s, 4.4 Stage Pts Per Stage, 6 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 14.8(13th), 79.49% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 103.7(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 33rd, Laps Completed 99.77%, Led 11.29% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 4.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 8th, Started 4th, Led 21 laps (18.75%), Finished 9th in Stage 1 and 5th in Stage 2, ran 112 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 115.9 Driver Rating (ranked 2nd)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 3 Races
- 7.33 Avg. Finish (Ranks 2nd)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 12th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 76.36% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 4th)
- 103.63 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 3rd)
- Led 6.36% of laps he’s run (% ranks 9th)
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 33.33% (% ranks T2nd)
- 2 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks T4th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 3 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T7th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Tyler Redick is notable because of his stats in his 3 career starts at the Roval and because he’s 2 points below the driver cutline and 15 points below the owner cutline
– Reddick struggled at Talladega running just 45% of his laps in the Top 15 en route to a 16th place finish
– He’s now finished either 1st or 2nd, or, 15th or worse in the last 6 races
– 12 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T8th or better including his 69.23 Laps in Top 15%, 89.42 Avg. Driver Rating, 5 Top 2’s, and 225 Stage Pts
– All 3 of his 2023 stage stats (5 Stage Wins, 36 Stage T10’s, 225 Stage Pts) are 4th or 5th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races he has an 11.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Win but only 2 Top 10’s
– He’s gotten 4.4 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races, has ran 70% of his laps in the Top 15, and has the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating in the playoffs (95.94)
– At Road Courses this year he has a 14.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Win and 3 Top 10’s in the 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 79.49% of his laps in the Top 15, led 11% of his laps, and has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (103.7)
– Last year at the Roval Reddick ran all 112 laps in the Top 15, led 21 laps, and had the 2nd best Driver Rating (115.9); but ended up finishing 8th
– He’s ran 3 Cup Series races at the Roval and in the 3 races he has a 7.33 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s and a worst finish of only 12th
– In the 3 races he’s ran 76% of his laps in the Top 15, led 6% of his laps, and has the 3rd best active Avg. Driver Rating (103.63)
Outlook for this weekend
Reddick lit the series on fire in the first 2 playoff races, but since he’s been lackluster and is below the cutlines heading to the Roval. His 2023 stats show he’s deserving of a Round of 8 spot and his Road Course stats this year show he might just get that spot he deserves as he’s been pretty good on them. This is no different than his stats at the Roval in his Cup career as his worst finish is only 12th here. In all I see Reddick making the Round of 8 after a 1st-8th place finish.
– Tyler Redick is notable because of his stats in his 3 career starts at the Roval and because he’s 2 points below the driver cutline and 15 points below the owner cutline
– Reddick struggled at Talladega running just 45% of his laps in the Top 15 en route to a 16th place finish
– He’s now finished either 1st or 2nd, or, 15th or worse in the last 6 races
– 12 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T8th or better including his 69.23 Laps in Top 15%, 89.42 Avg. Driver Rating, 5 Top 2’s, and 225 Stage Pts
– All 3 of his 2023 stage stats (5 Stage Wins, 36 Stage T10’s, 225 Stage Pts) are 4th or 5th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races he has an 11.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Win but only 2 Top 10’s
– He’s gotten 4.4 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races, has ran 70% of his laps in the Top 15, and has the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating in the playoffs (95.94)
– At Road Courses this year he has a 14.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Win and 3 Top 10’s in the 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 79.49% of his laps in the Top 15, led 11% of his laps, and has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (103.7)
– Last year at the Roval Reddick ran all 112 laps in the Top 15, led 21 laps, and had the 2nd best Driver Rating (115.9); but ended up finishing 8th
– He’s ran 3 Cup Series races at the Roval and in the 3 races he has a 7.33 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s and a worst finish of only 12th
– In the 3 races he’s ran 76% of his laps in the Top 15, led 6% of his laps, and has the 3rd best active Avg. Driver Rating (103.63)
Outlook for this weekend
Reddick lit the series on fire in the first 2 playoff races, but since he’s been lackluster and is below the cutlines heading to the Roval. His 2023 stats show he’s deserving of a Round of 8 spot and his Road Course stats this year show he might just get that spot he deserves as he’s been pretty good on them. This is no different than his stats at the Roval in his Cup career as his worst finish is only 12th here. In all I see Reddick making the Round of 8 after a 1st-8th place finish.
10th in Points – Bubba Wallace (P)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 16.65 | 17th of 35 | T291st of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 98.57% | T4th of 35 | T88th of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 60.66% | 12th of 35 | 221st of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 79.3 | 15th of 35 | 296th of 776‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T15th of 63 | T276th of 1383 |
| Poles | 1 | T7th of 63 | T125th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T21st of 63 | T392nd of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T16th of 63 | T325th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 5 | T14th of 63 | T234th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 8 | T18th of 63 | T331st of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 5 | T25th of 35 | T562nd of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T19th of 63 | T113th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 22 | T12th of 63 | T96th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 110 | 13th of 63 | T92nd of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T21st of 63 | T134th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 15.8(10th), 66.35% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.04(6th), Best 3rd, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 99.69%, Led 7.38% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 4 Stage T10’s, 2.0 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 23.0(32nd), 41.62% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 60.1(25th), Best 12th, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 85.06%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 1 Top 15, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 0.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 7th, Started 14th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 13 Laps in Top15 (11.61% of laps he ran), had 62.3 Driver Rating (ranked 24th)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 20.4 Avg. Finish (Ranks 21st)
- Best Finish: 7th, Worst: 36th
- Completed 98.91% of laps (% ranks T26th)
- 12.73% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 36th)
- 56.84 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 32nd)
- Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 20.0% (% ranks T18th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 40.0% (% ranks T16th)
- 3 finishes outside Top 20, 60.0% (% ranks T25th)
- 1 DNF, 20.0% (% ranks T30th)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 1 Stage T10, 10.0% (% ranks T23rd)
Main Points & Outlook
– Bubba Wallace is notable because he’s with 15 points of the playoff cutline, only 9 points below it
– Wallace ran just 41% of his laps in the Top 15 last week en route to only his 2nd finish out of the Top 20 in the last 12 races, finishing 23rd
– This was his 4th finish of 20th or worse in the 6 Superspeedway races this year
– Only 2 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are better than 12th (98.57 Completed Laps% and 1 Pole
– His 16.65 Avg. Finish, 0 Top 2’s, 8 Top 10’s, 5 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, and 0 Playoff Pts are all worse than 16th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races this year he’s ran 66% of his laps in the Top 15 and has the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating (94.04), but he’s only earned 2.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– He has a 15.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Top 3 and 2 Top 10’s in the 5 races
– In the 5 Road Course races this year he has an underwhelming 23.0 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– At Road Courses he’s ran just 42% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 0 laps, and has a 60.1 Avg. Driver Rating
– At the Roval last year Wallace ran only 12% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 24th best Driver Rating (62.3), but he found a way to finish 7th
– In 5 career Cup races at the Roval he has more finishes out of the Top 20 (3) than finishes in the Top 15 (2)
– He’s ran just 13% of his laps here in the Top 15, has just 1 Stage T10 in 10 stages, and has a disappointing 56.84 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Wallace needed a good run last week and he didn’t get it which now has him in a pretty deep hole. In terms of his 2023 stats he doesn’t deserve a Round of 8 spot anyway, and his playoffs this year have just been alright. However, worse news is that he’s been pretty bad at Road Courses this year and his career Roval stats aren’t pretty either. Wallace must go after Stage Pts this weekend to advance, but even with this I see him missing the next round after a 15th-22nd place finish.
– Bubba Wallace is notable because he’s with 15 points of the playoff cutline, only 9 points below it
– Wallace ran just 41% of his laps in the Top 15 last week en route to only his 2nd finish out of the Top 20 in the last 12 races, finishing 23rd
– This was his 4th finish of 20th or worse in the 6 Superspeedway races this year
– Only 2 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are better than 12th (98.57 Completed Laps% and 1 Pole
– His 16.65 Avg. Finish, 0 Top 2’s, 8 Top 10’s, 5 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, and 0 Playoff Pts are all worse than 16th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 5 playoff races this year he’s ran 66% of his laps in the Top 15 and has the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating (94.04), but he’s only earned 2.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
– He has a 15.8 Avg. Finish with 1 Top 3 and 2 Top 10’s in the 5 races
– In the 5 Road Course races this year he has an underwhelming 23.0 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– At Road Courses he’s ran just 42% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 0 laps, and has a 60.1 Avg. Driver Rating
– At the Roval last year Wallace ran only 12% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 24th best Driver Rating (62.3), but he found a way to finish 7th
– In 5 career Cup races at the Roval he has more finishes out of the Top 20 (3) than finishes in the Top 15 (2)
– He’s ran just 13% of his laps here in the Top 15, has just 1 Stage T10 in 10 stages, and has a disappointing 56.84 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Wallace needed a good run last week and he didn’t get it which now has him in a pretty deep hole. In terms of his 2023 stats he doesn’t deserve a Round of 8 spot anyway, and his playoffs this year have just been alright. However, worse news is that he’s been pretty bad at Road Courses this year and his career Roval stats aren’t pretty either. Wallace must go after Stage Pts this weekend to advance, but even with this I see him missing the next round after a 15th-22nd place finish.
11th in Points – Ross Chastain (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 15.45 | 11th of 35 | T231st of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.43% | 14th of 35 | T200th of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 54.0% | 16th of 35 | 276th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 80.77 | 12th of 35 | 283rd of 776‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T9th of 63 | T142nd of 1383 |
| Poles | 1 | T7th of 63 | T125th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 3 | T9th of 63 | T130th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 5 | T8th of 63 | T129th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 8 | T7th of 63 | T148th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 11 | 14th of 63 | T265th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T8th of 35 | T277th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 5 | T5th of 63 | T24th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 27 | T8th of 63 | T76th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 165 | 9th of 63 | T65th of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 10 | 9th of 63 | T47th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 16.0(T11th), 36.86% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 69.1(17th), Best 2nd, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 91.76%, Led 0.07% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 3 Stage T10’s, 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 14.2(12th), 37.24% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 77.92(16th), Best 4th, Worst 22nd, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.23% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 37th, Started 10th, Led 3 laps (2.68%), Finished 1st in Stage 2, ran 26 Laps in Top15 (25.24% of laps he ran), had 46.9 Driver Rating (ranked 31st)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 26.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks 35th)
- Best Finish: 22nd, Worst: 37th
- Completed 97.95% of laps (% ranks 33rd)
- 15.35% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 33rd)
- 47.05 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 35th)
- Led 0.7% of laps he’s run (% ranks 16th)
- 0 Top 15’s
- 4 finishes outside Top 20, 100% (% ranks T31st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 12.5% (% ranks T4th)
- 1 Stage T10, 12.5% (% ranks T20th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Ross Chastain is notable because he’s only 10 points below the driver points cutline
– Chastain had an unfortunate Talladega as he got out early and was the only playoff driver to not benefit from the Harvick DQ, ending up 37th
– This was only his 3rd DNF this year and just his 2nd finish of 30th or worse
– Only his 1 Pole, 5 Top 3’s, 8 Top 5’s, 3 DNF’s, 5 Stage Wins, and 27 Stage T10’s are T8th or better in the 2023 Ranks above
– 4 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are 12th or worse in the 2023 Ranks above (97.43 Completed Laps%, 54.0 Laps in Top 15%, 80.77 Avg. Driver Rating, 11 Top 10’s)
– In the 5 playoff races he has a 16.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 5’s and 2 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s only ran 37% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races and has led just 0.07% of his laps
– At Road Courses this year he has a 14.2 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s and only 1.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In the 5 races he’s ran just 37% of his laps in the Top 15, led 0.23% of laps he’s ran, and has just a 77.92 Avg. Driver Rating
– Last year at the Roval Chastain ran a measly 25% of his laps in the Top 15, won Stage 2, had the 31st best Driver Rating (46.9), and finished 37th
– In 4 career races at the Roval he has a pathetic 26.5 Avg. Finish with a best finish of only 22nd
– In these 4 races he’s ran just 15% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 47.05 Avg. Driver Rating, and his Stage Win last year is his only Stage 10 here
Outlook for this weekend
Chastain has been decent in the playoffs this year, but last week has him in a decent sized hole in terms of making the Round of 8. His 2023 stats make it questionable as to whether he deserves the spot or not, and his stats on Road Courses this year say he doesn’t have a chance. He’s not been terrible on them, but also not good. However, at the Roval he’s been atrocious. All of this tells me Chastain’s 10th-25th place finish this weekend won’t get him into the Round of 8.
– Ross Chastain is notable because he’s only 10 points below the driver points cutline
– Chastain had an unfortunate Talladega as he got out early and was the only playoff driver to not benefit from the Harvick DQ, ending up 37th
– This was only his 3rd DNF this year and just his 2nd finish of 30th or worse
– Only his 1 Pole, 5 Top 3’s, 8 Top 5’s, 3 DNF’s, 5 Stage Wins, and 27 Stage T10’s are T8th or better in the 2023 Ranks above
– 4 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are 12th or worse in the 2023 Ranks above (97.43 Completed Laps%, 54.0 Laps in Top 15%, 80.77 Avg. Driver Rating, 11 Top 10’s)
– In the 5 playoff races he has a 16.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 5’s and 2 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s only ran 37% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races and has led just 0.07% of his laps
– At Road Courses this year he has a 14.2 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s and only 1.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In the 5 races he’s ran just 37% of his laps in the Top 15, led 0.23% of laps he’s ran, and has just a 77.92 Avg. Driver Rating
– Last year at the Roval Chastain ran a measly 25% of his laps in the Top 15, won Stage 2, had the 31st best Driver Rating (46.9), and finished 37th
– In 4 career races at the Roval he has a pathetic 26.5 Avg. Finish with a best finish of only 22nd
– In these 4 races he’s ran just 15% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 47.05 Avg. Driver Rating, and his Stage Win last year is his only Stage 10 here
Outlook for this weekend
Chastain has been decent in the playoffs this year, but last week has him in a decent sized hole in terms of making the Round of 8. His 2023 stats make it questionable as to whether he deserves the spot or not, and his stats on Road Courses this year say he doesn’t have a chance. He’s not been terrible on them, but also not good. However, at the Roval he’s been atrocious. All of this tells me Chastain’s 10th-25th place finish this weekend won’t get him into the Round of 8.
15th in Points – Michael McDowell
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 18.71 | 20th of 35 | 369th of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.79% | T9th of 35 | T162nd of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 36.47% | 21st of 35 | 384th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 69.43 | 19th of 35 | 408th of 776‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T9th of 63 | T142nd of 1383 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 63 | T265th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T13th of 63 | T247th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T16th of 63 | T325th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T20th of 63 | T366th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 7 | T20th of 63 | T364th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T8th of 35 | T277th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 2 | T11th of 63 | T67th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 16 | 19th of 63 | T115th of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 96 | 17th of 63 | 105th of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 7 | 12th of 63 | T67th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 20.0(24th), 50.25% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 70.82(16th), Best 6th, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 97.55%, Led 0.32% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 2 Stage T10’s, 1.1 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 12.6(T8th), 89.74% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 107.18(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 96.32%, Led 17.18% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 2 Stage Wins, 5.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 27th, Started 11th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 103 Laps in Top15 (91.96% of laps he ran), had 86.7 Driver Rating (ranked 11th)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 21.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks T22nd)
- Best Finish: 12th, Worst: 32nd
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 46.9% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 20th)
- 69.94 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 22nd)
- Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
- 0 Top 10’s
- 1 Top 15, 20.0% (% ranks T28th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 40.0% (% ranks T18th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 3 Stage T10’s, 30.0% (% ranks T18th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Michael McDowell is notable because of his 2023 Road Course stats
– At Talladega McDowell ran just 18% of his laps in the Top 15 and wound up with just a 21st place finish
– His longest Top 10 streak this year is just 2 races
– 8 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are 16th or better including his 97.79 Completed Laps%, 1 Win, 3 DNF’s, and 2 Stage Wins
– He has more DNF’s this year (3) than Top 5 finishes (2)
– In the 5 playoff races this year he has a 20.0 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10 finish and 3 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s ran an impressive 50% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races and has a 70.82 Avg. Driver Rating
– On Road Courses this year he has a 12.6 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 10’s and 4 Top 15’s in 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 90% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (107.18), and has 5.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At the Roval last year McDowell ran 92% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 11th best Driver Rating (86.7), but an incident late caused him to finish 27th
– In 5 career races at the Roval he has a 21.0 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– In these 5 races he’s ran just 47% of his laps in the Top 15, led 0 laps, and has a 69.94 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
McDowell has had a good season and made the playoffs, but as his playoff stats and overall 2023 stats show he doesn’t deserve to be in them anymore (and he’s not). However, something more positive is that he’s performed exceptionally well on Road Courses this year, but this is the Roval where he’s not performed so well in his career. All in all I see McDowell getting a 6th-15th place finish this weekend.
– Michael McDowell is notable because of his 2023 Road Course stats
– At Talladega McDowell ran just 18% of his laps in the Top 15 and wound up with just a 21st place finish
– His longest Top 10 streak this year is just 2 races
– 8 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are 16th or better including his 97.79 Completed Laps%, 1 Win, 3 DNF’s, and 2 Stage Wins
– He has more DNF’s this year (3) than Top 5 finishes (2)
– In the 5 playoff races this year he has a 20.0 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10 finish and 3 finishes out of the Top 20
– He’s ran an impressive 50% of his laps in the Top 15 in the 5 races and has a 70.82 Avg. Driver Rating
– On Road Courses this year he has a 12.6 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 10’s and 4 Top 15’s in 5 races
– In the 5 races he’s ran 90% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (107.18), and has 5.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At the Roval last year McDowell ran 92% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 11th best Driver Rating (86.7), but an incident late caused him to finish 27th
– In 5 career races at the Roval he has a 21.0 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 15 (1)
– In these 5 races he’s ran just 47% of his laps in the Top 15, led 0 laps, and has a 69.94 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
McDowell has had a good season and made the playoffs, but as his playoff stats and overall 2023 stats show he doesn’t deserve to be in them anymore (and he’s not). However, something more positive is that he’s performed exceptionally well on Road Courses this year, but this is the Roval where he’s not performed so well in his career. All in all I see McDowell getting a 6th-15th place finish this weekend.
17th in Points/4th in Owner Points – Chase Elliott (OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 31 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.08 | 3rd of 35 | 71st of 818 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 92.1% | 30th of 35 | 601st of 818 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 67.19% | 7th of 35 | 176th of 776‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 84.74 | 8th of 35 | 232nd of 776‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T15th of 63 | T276th of 1383 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 63 | T265th of 1383 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T11th of 63 | T175th of 1383 |
| Top 3’s | 4 | 12th of 63 | T167th of 1383 |
| Top 5’s | 7 | 11th of 63 | T184th of 1383 |
| Top 10’s | 14 | T8th of 63 | T175th of 1383 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T8th of 35 | T277th of 818 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T13th of 63 | T86th of 437* |
| Stage T10s | 20 | T15th of 63 | T103rd of 437* |
| Stage Pts | 102 | 16th of 63 | 102nd of 437* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T16th of 63 | T114th of 437* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 31 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 3+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 7.8(3rd), 83.4% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 93.14(7th), Best 6th, Worst 11th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 3.52% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 8 Stage T10’s, 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 48 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 10.5(4th), 74.65% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.33(7th), Best 2nd, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 99.72%, Led 2.23% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Roval Statistics
- 2022 Roval race
- Finished 20th, Started 9th, Led 30 laps (26.79%), Finished 10th in Stage 1, ran 106 Laps in Top15 (94.64% of laps he ran), had 106.7 Driver Rating (ranked 3rd)
- Notable Roval Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Roval, 44 drivers)
- 5 Races
- 8.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 3rd)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 20th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 80.11% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 2nd)
- 112.5 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 17.15% of laps he’s run (% ranks 1st)
- 2 Wins, 40.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 3 Top 10’s, 60.0% (% ranks T8th)
- 4 Top 15’s, 80.0% (% ranks T4th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Stage Wins, 20.0% (% ranks T2nd)
- 8 Stage T10’s, 80.0% (% ranks T2nd)
- 5.2 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 2nd)
Main Points & Outlook
– Chase Elliott is notable because of his career stats here at the Charlotte Roval
– Elliott ran 72% of his laps in the Top 15 last week and was running up front late before ending up 7th at the finish
– He’s now finished 11th or better in the last 6 races
– His 12.08 Avg. Finish this year is 3rd best in the 2023 Ranks above and his 84.74 Avg. Driver Rating is 8th best
– His 14 Top 10’s are more than Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace in 7 less races than these drivers
– In the 5 playoff races he has a 7.8 Avg. Finish with every finish coming between 6th and 11th
– He’s gotten 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races, has ran 83% of his laps in the Top 15, and has a 93.14 Avg. Driver Rating
– At Road Courses this year he has a 10.5 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 5’s in the 4 races he’s ran
– In the 4 races he’s ran 75% of his laps in the Top 15, led 2% of his laps, and has a 94.33 Avg. Driver Rating
– Elliott ran 95% of his laps in the Top 15 at the Roval last year and had the 3rd best Driver Rating (106.7), but a late incident caused him to finish 20th
– He’s ran 5 races here at the Roval and has an 8.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins and 4 Top 15’s
– His 112.5 Avg. Driver Rating and 17.15 Laps Led% here in the 5 races are both best among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Elliott isn’t in the driver playoffs, but he’s been doing well in the playoffs to help his 9 team, which is in the owner playoffs. Overall his 2023 stats aren’t that bad, especially his Top 10’s. What’s better is his Road Courses this year and his stats at the Roval are overall just the best of any driver, no biggie. In all I think the 9 team advances to the Round of 8 after a 1st-6th place finish from Elliott this weekend.
– Chase Elliott is notable because of his career stats here at the Charlotte Roval
– Elliott ran 72% of his laps in the Top 15 last week and was running up front late before ending up 7th at the finish
– He’s now finished 11th or better in the last 6 races
– His 12.08 Avg. Finish this year is 3rd best in the 2023 Ranks above and his 84.74 Avg. Driver Rating is 8th best
– His 14 Top 10’s are more than Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace in 7 less races than these drivers
– In the 5 playoff races he has a 7.8 Avg. Finish with every finish coming between 6th and 11th
– He’s gotten 3.8 Stage Pts Per Stage in the 5 races, has ran 83% of his laps in the Top 15, and has a 93.14 Avg. Driver Rating
– At Road Courses this year he has a 10.5 Avg. Finish with 3 Top 5’s in the 4 races he’s ran
– In the 4 races he’s ran 75% of his laps in the Top 15, led 2% of his laps, and has a 94.33 Avg. Driver Rating
– Elliott ran 95% of his laps in the Top 15 at the Roval last year and had the 3rd best Driver Rating (106.7), but a late incident caused him to finish 20th
– He’s ran 5 races here at the Roval and has an 8.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins and 4 Top 15’s
– His 112.5 Avg. Driver Rating and 17.15 Laps Led% here in the 5 races are both best among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Elliott isn’t in the driver playoffs, but he’s been doing well in the playoffs to help his 9 team, which is in the owner playoffs. Overall his 2023 stats aren’t that bad, especially his Top 10’s. What’s better is his Road Courses this year and his stats at the Roval are overall just the best of any driver, no biggie. In all I think the 9 team advances to the Round of 8 after a 1st-6th place finish from Elliott this weekend.
