The Cup Series Round of 8 starts this Sunday with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Eight playoff drivers will look to secure the win, perhaps gaining the best championship advantage available in these playoffs. At this point in the playoffs, the margin of error has diminished drastically. Unless a driver wins, there is no room for finishes outside the Top-10. Even that might not be enough, as Denny Hamlin was eliminated in this round last year with a worst finish of seventh. Las Vegas will be important to get the Round of 8 off to the right start. None of these eight drivers want to leave Las Vegas with a DNF or suboptimal finish.
In the spring, Las Vegas provided solid intermediate racing. The NextGen car thrives on this type of track, so the South Point 400 should be no different. Late race cautions and pit strategies jumbled up the order a bit. With high stakes for the remaining playoff drivers, the higher aggression during stage ends could lead to more drama. Of course, there are the non-playoff drivers looking to win the race as well. Last week, AJ Allmendinger took the checkered flag. There is a chance another non-playoff team could spoil the weekend, especially considering the four drivers who were eliminated Sunday. The South Point 400 should be an exciting watch for race fans. With the Round of 8 kicking off, who are the five drivers to watch?
If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
William Byron
Heading into the Round of 8, William Byron holds the points lead. He sits 20 points above the cutline based on his series leading six wins (and numerous stage wins). The last time the Cup Series raced at Las Vegas, William Byron emerged victorious. Byron led a race high 176 laps and swept the stages. On paper, Byron dominated this race from start to finish. Although he led the most laps and swept the stages, Byron needed the late race cautions to pluck the win away from Kyle Larson.
Heading into this weekend, there is no driver with more momentum than William Byron. In the last round, Byron finished first, second, and second. After looking a bit off during the first round, Byron picked up the speed in the Round of 12. Now, it looks that Byron is the championship favorite. At Las Vegas, there is no reason to expect Byron not bringing the same speed. Byron will likely be a fixture of the Top-5, running for the win. If you are looking for the early favorite this weekend, William Byron would be it.
Erik Jones
While the start of the season was rough for Legacy Motor Club, the second half has seen drastic improvement from Erik Jones and the 43 team. The 42 has been better with Carson Hocevar behind the wheel as well, but Jones has been quietly putting together a strong second half. Since Nashville, Jones has accumulated five Top-10s and has only finished off the lead lap twice when he has finished race. Prior to Nashville, those stats were flipped.
Last year, Erik Jones brought speed to Las Vegas (and intermediates as a whole). In both races, Jones ran Top-10. A late race crash in the spring race was the only reason why Jones did not have two Top-10s. Based on the second half runs, Jones should be bringing that intermediate speed to Las Vegas again. At Texas, Jones was running second prior to the JJ Yeley caution that threw everything off. Jones also ran in the Top-5 at Kansas, which replicates Las Vegas a bit more than Texas. Could Erik Jones pull the upset win off on Sunday? Based on the recent trends, there is a chance Jones wins the South Point 400.
Martin Truex Jr
Will Martin Truex Jr continue his playoff woes in this round? After winning the regular season championship during the Coke Zero 400, Truex has yet to finish inside the Top-15. Those valuable playoff points from the regular season have kept Truex afloat. However, that will be not be enough when the margins are thin. Truex currently sits 15 points above the cutline and 22 points above Ryan Blaney (eighth in points). If a playoff driver not named William Bryon wins, that cutline begins to squeeze Truex.
Las Vegas kicks off what should be a good set of tracks of Martin Truex Jr. In the spring, Truex finished seventh after leading three laps. In the NextGen car, Truex has finished in the Top-10 each race. Overall, Truex has an average finish of tenth and two wins. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Truex has only finished outside the Top-10 at Las Vegas once. Based on his history, Las Vegas would be an ideal track to start the bounce back. However, Darlington, Kansas, and Texas were all supposed to be strong tracks for Truex. The lack of speed from the 19 team has been alarming, especially considering that every other Toyota has been outrunning him.
Alex Bowman
The last time Alex Bowman looked like a race winning threat was Las Vegas in the spring. Although he only led 2 laps, Bowman ran inside the Top-5 for the bulk of the race. Even before his injury, Bowman’s consistent runs were not seeing him inside the Top-5 often. After his return from injury, Bowman has been a shell of his earlier season form. Maybe Las Vegas can help Bowman return to form.
Last year, Alex Bowman won the spring race at Las Vegas. It was his lone 2022 win. Bowman missed the fall race due the concussion he suffered at Texas. Despite this, Las Vegas has been one of Bowman’s best tracks (especially with the NextGen). Although the focus of the Hendrick camp will be centered around his three teammates, Bowman should not be forgotten this weekend. A couple of Top-10s in the past five races are signs that Bowman is improving. While his teammates have playoff implications to worry about, Alex Bowman will look to collect his first Top-5 on an oval since his injury.
Ryan Blaney
Although Ryan Blaney sits at the bottom of the playoff standings, he may be the most dangerous driver if he advances to the Championship Four. First he has to make it, which starts Sunday. While the big knock against Blaney this year has been his lack of winning speed, one of his wins happened on an intermediate (Charlotte). Plus, Ford only has two drivers left in the playoffs. The manufacturer will surely dump as many resources as possible behind Blaney (and Chris Buescher) to have at least one Ford in the finale.
Prior to the NextGen car, Las Vegas was a great track for Ryan Blaney. In eleven starts, Blaney averaged a 8.8 finish with five Top-5s. However, those good times ended with the NextGen car. His best finish with the new car is thirteenth in the spring. While his NextGen numbers are not good, his teammate won the South Point 400 last year. This set up Joey Logano to win the championship. While Blaney has been sluggish at Las Vegas, Team Penske has flashed pace at the track. Austin Cindric has qualified in the Top-10 in each of his three starts. If Blaney can find the Penske speed at Las Vegas, he could clinch his way into the Championship Four.
