This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Martinsville Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 34th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Bubba Wallace 6th)
-Only 11 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the 36 drivers finished 24+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Justin Haley
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 13th -11 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 18th -14 |
| 5. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 12th -7 |
| 6. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 33rd -27 |
| 7. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 16th -9 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +7 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 17th -7 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 11th +0 |
| 12. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th +6 |
| 13. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 26th -12 |
| 15. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 2nd +13 |
| 16. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 8th +8 |
| 17. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 20th -3 |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 32nd -14 |
| 19. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 27th -7 |
| 21. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 10th +11 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19th +3 |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 34th -11 |
| 24. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 9th +15 |
| 25. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 22nd +3 |
| 26. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 31st -5 |
| 27. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 25th +3 |
| 29. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 28th +1 |
| 30. | 43 | Erik Jones | 21st +9 |
| 31. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 15th +16 |
| 32. | 51 | Ryan Newman | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 31 | Justin Haley | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 24th +10 |
| 35. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 35th +0 |
| 36. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 36th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
