This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Talladega Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last week:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 1st, Aric Almirola 18th)
-Only 12 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the 36 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the Top 16 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 16
Notable results this week
Winner: Brad Keselowski
One to Watch: Aric Almirola
Disappointment: Kyle Larson
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 32nd -31 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22nd -19 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 24th -20 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 7th -1 |
| 7. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th -18 |
| 8. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 17th -9 |
| 9. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 38th -29 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 19th -9 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 14th -3 |
| 12. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +10 |
| 13. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 12th +1 |
| 14. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 27th -13 |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +5 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 28th -12 |
| 17. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 13th +4 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 5th +13 |
| 19. | 43 | Erik Jones | 26th -7 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 4th +17 |
| 22. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 37th -15 |
| 23. | 31 | Justin Haley | 6th +17 |
| 24. | 13 | Chandler Smith | 11th +13 |
| 25. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 18th +7 |
| 26. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 16th +11 |
| 28. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 35th -7 |
| 29. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 8th +21 |
| 30. | 51 | J.J. Yeley | 36th -6 |
| 31. | 36 | Riley Herbst | 9th +22 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 15th +19 |
| 35. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th +1 |
| 36. | 15 | Brennan Poole | 30th +6 |
| 37. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 29th +8 |
| 38. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 31st +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
