Only two races are left in the NASCAR Cup Series season. The Xfinity 500 will host the final elimination race of the Cup Series playoffs. Is there a better track for this race than Martinsville? Normally, the answer is a definitive no. However, the NextGen car being a slog on short tracks does take some shine off this elimination race. Still, the racing among the playoffs drivers should be an intense one. Six drivers are battling for the final two spots in the Championship Four. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson can relax on Sunday, knowing their spots are secured via wins at Las Vegas and Homestead. Four drivers hover within 17 points of each heading to Martinsville.
While the short track racing in the NextGen car has been poor, last year’s Xfinity 500 did not suffer as much. The intrigue of watching the ever changing cutline kept things interesting. Plus, there was the Hail Melon. Could there be another desperate move attended this year? Before the Hail Melon, there was Kevin Harvick attempting to wreck his way to the Championship Four. What is (sometimes) lost last year was that the two playoff drivers leading late in the race were the drivers who entered seventh and eighth in points. Perhaps Chris Buescher will pull a Christopher Bell and unexpectedly win his way to the championship race. No matter what, the Xfinity 500 will have no shortage of excitement.
With this final short track race of 2023, who will be the five drivers to watch this weekend in the Xfinity 500? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Brad Keselowski
The lone nonplayoff driver on this list is Brad Keselowski. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs in the Round of 12, Keselowski has been the quicker RFK car in the first two Round of 8 races. At both Las Vegas and Homestead, Keselowski was a Top-5 car. Currently riding a 96 race winless streak, Keselowski surely is itching to get back into victory lane. Martinsville will be his best shot to snap the streak this year.
Martinsville has been a solid track for the RFK partial owner. In 27 starts, Keselowski has won twice at Martinsville with an average finish of 12.7. Even his RFK runs have not been poor. Prior to his DQ last fall, Keselowski finished inside the Top-5 at this race one year ago. During the spring, Keselowski was a Top-10 car until a caution trapped him a lap down. As the NextGen car has proved, track position is king at Martinsville. As long as Keselowski can avoid a poorly timed caution, he should be the favorite nonplayoff driver to win this race.
However, Brad Keselowski is a team player. If Chris Buescher has a chance for the win with Keselowski near the front, would Keselowski allow his playoff teammate to punch his ticket to the Championship Four (if able)?
Denny Hamlin
Prior to the ROVAL, Denny Hamlin looked like the driver to beat for the championship. In the first round, Hamlin was the fastest car at points in each race. Texas saw Hamlin run Top-3 while he was the only driver able to push forward at Talladega consistently. Then the ROVAL seemed to sputter all of that momentum. Las Vegas was not a poor race, but Hamlin ran slower than most of the playoff drivers. Last week at Homestead, Hamlin look stronger but wrecked out battling Ryan Blaney for third. Now, Hamlin faces a 17 point deficit to the cutline.
While many have proclaimed this to be the season where Denny Hamlin will break the choking moniker, the Virginia native will have an uphill battle. Not only is Hamlin 17 points behind Ryan Blaney, but he is tied with Martin Truex Jr and trails Tyler Reddick. Although Hamlin has been great at Martinsville, so have Blaney and Truex. Plus, Hamlin has not found victory lane at Martinsville since 2015. With the NextGen car, Hamlin has two Top-5s (along with a dreadful 28). Top-5 speed is good, but will it be enough to overcome the deficit? While Hamlin does not face a must win, he has to outduel three other drivers.
Ryan Blaney
After a very successful Homestead race, Ryan Blaney enters the Xfinity 500 in a great position to make the Championship Four. Sitting 10 points above the cutline, Blaney is seemingly hitting his stride. Plus, Martinsville is one of Blaney’s best tracks. Not only that, but Blaney ranks sixth all-time in Martinsville average finishes. Only Blaney and Rex White are in the Top-10 for average finish and do not have a win to their name. Blaney could be in line for his first grandfather clock this weekend.
Thankfully for Blaney, NASCAR rescinded his DQ at Las Vegas. If the DQ was still in place, Blaney would be facing a must win situation. Blaney will still go for the win, but he will have to consider the points situation. Depending on how cautions fall, the 12 team will look to maximize their point situation. It could end up costing Blaney the win, but might be the key to advancing to the Championship Four. As NASCAR fans learned last year, every point matters.
Martin Truex Jr
At some point, you would believe that Martin Truex Jr and his team will have a weekend that resembles their regular season champion form. Through eight races of the playoffs, the 19 team has been a shell of their regular season self. Maybe taking the foot off the gas at Daytona started a trend that the team cannot escape. No matter, Truex is down 17 points behind the cutline entering Martinsville. Based on how his playoffs have gone, there is little faith that the team will put together a clean weekend to run Top-5 all race.
Similar to Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr has a history of good runs at Martinsville. In 35 starts, Truex has a Top-10 in 45% of his starts to go along with 3 wins. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, his average finish is 9.1. If Truex finishes on the lead lap, his average finish improves to 3.0. However, Truex has slumped a bit more in the NextGen car. While the spring saw Truex finish third, his two starts last season resulted in lapped down finishes. Recent history does not bode well for Truex, however, he is due for a strong race. The big question for the 19 team is whether they can break their cold streak.
Tyler Reddick
Despite being fifth in the standings, it feels that Tyler Reddick is the overlooked driver in the playoff cutline fight. Despite sitting ahead of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr, Reddick is not as featured in cutline conversations as those two. It could be down to the fact that Blaney, Hamlin, and Truex all have a history of strong runs at the short track. Meanwhile, Reddick’s best finish at Martinsville is eighth. His average finish of 20.1 is the worst of the eight playoff drivers.
Although it seemed that Reddick’s best chance to get into the Championship Four have passed, no one expected Christopher Bell to win last year. Bell, who similarly had poor Martinsville numbers, pulled the upset to punch his ticket to Phoenix. While Reddick does not have the history, he is a solid driver. Surely he and his team can devise a plan to get the 45 car in contention for a strong run. If Reddick can run inside the Top-10 all race long, he might be able to point his way in. Watching Reddick (along with Blaney, Hamlin, and Truex) and the cutline will be the race long entertainment.
