Ryan Blaney pretty much dominated speed-wise at Martinsville last week, winning the race and thus locking himself into the Championship 4. Hopefully this week we get a little more exciting racing as we crown the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion at Phoenix Raceway. I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 4 based on the Championship 4 drivers, 1 based on 2023 playoff stats, 1 based on Small track stats, 1 based on the last Phoenix race, and 1 based on their overall Phoenix stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 and ranking through 35 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight the 2023 Playoff stats, notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2023 Small track (1-1.3 mile) statistics and Phoenix statistics.
P = Playoff Driver
OP = Owner Playoff Driver
1st Seed – Kyle Larson (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 14.97 | 12th of 35 | 211th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 95.99% | 23rd of 35 | T332nd of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 72.55% | 3rd of 35 | 121st of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.4 | 3rd of 35 | 100th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 4 | 2nd of 64 | T40th of 1427 |
| Poles | 2 | T5th of 64 | T77th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 7 | T2nd of 64 | T48th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 8 | T3rd of 64 | T70th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 14 | T1st of 64 | T42nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 17 | T4th of 64 | T146th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 8 | 34th of 35 | T725th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 8 | T1st of 64 | T11th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 43 | 3rd of 64 | T32nd of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 277 | 3rd of 64 | 27th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 28 | 2nd of 64 | 15th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 11.89(5th), 82.99% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 110.6(1st), Best 1st, Worst 34th, Laps Completed 97.37%, Led 18.9% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 5 Stage Wins, 13 Stage T10’s, 5.78 Stage Pts Per Stage, 15 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 10.75(7th), 65.08% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.23(6th), Best 3rd, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 96.75%, Led 17.38% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 1 Top 3, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 3.63 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 4th, Started 1st, Led 201 laps (63.41%), Finished 2nd in Stage 1 and 1st in Stage 2, ran 317 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 139.0 Driver Rating (ranked 1st)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 18 Races
- 11.72 Avg. Finish (Ranks 6th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 40th
- Completed 94.9% of laps (% ranks 30th)
- 78.86% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 6th)
- 97.73 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 7th)
- Led 7.26% of laps he’s run (% ranks 9th)
- 1 Win, 5.56% (% ranks T8th)
- 2 Poles, 11.11% (% ranks T2nd)
- 7 Top 5’s, 38.89% (% ranks 6th)
- 11 Top 10’s, 61.11% (% ranks 6th)
- 3 finishes outside Top 20, 16.67% (% ranks T5th)
- 2 DNF’s, 11.11% (% ranks T29th)
- 3 Stage Wins, 12.5% (% ranks 3rd)
- 19 Stage T10’s, 79.17% (% ranks 3rd)
- 4.33 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 4th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kyle Larson is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Larson ran 71% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at Martinsville en route to a 6th place finish
– This was only his 3rd time finishing between 6th and 10th this year
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 72.55 Laps in Top 15%, 96.4 Avg. Driver Rating, 8 Top 3’s, and 277 Stage Pts
– His 95.99 Completed Laps% and 8 DNF’s both rank worse than 20th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In 9 playoff races he has an 11.89 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 4 Top 5’s, and 2 DNF’s
– He’s ran 83% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led 19% of his laps, has the best Avg. Driver Rating (110.6), and has won 5 of the 18 stages
– At Small tracks this year he has a 10.75 Avg. Finish and 3 Top 5’s with a best finish of 3rd in 4 races
– In the 4 races he’s ran 65% of his laps in the Top 15, led 17% of his laps, and has a decent 94.23 Avg. Driver Rating
– At Phoenix this Spring Larson ran all 317 laps in the Top 15, led 63% of the race, had the best Driver Rating (139.0), and finished 4th after a late restart shuffle
– In 18 races at Phoenix he has 1 Win, 7 Top 5’s, and 2 DNF’s leading to an 11.72 Avg. Finish
– He’s ran 79% of his Phoenix laps in the Top 15, led 7% of his laps, and has a respectable 97.73 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Larson’s 2023 stats say he has been one of the four best drivers, except in finishing races. His playoffs have been about the same, struggles to finish some but when he does it’s good. Small tracks have been mostly good as he’s run good and finished good. Phoenix is like this as well, especially this year, but he only has 1 Win here. All in all the stats tell me that Larson will be up front this weekend and if he doesn’t DNF will finish in the Top 5.
– Kyle Larson is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Larson ran 71% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at Martinsville en route to a 6th place finish
– This was only his 3rd time finishing between 6th and 10th this year
– 11 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better including his 72.55 Laps in Top 15%, 96.4 Avg. Driver Rating, 8 Top 3’s, and 277 Stage Pts
– His 95.99 Completed Laps% and 8 DNF’s both rank worse than 20th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In 9 playoff races he has an 11.89 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 4 Top 5’s, and 2 DNF’s
– He’s ran 83% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led 19% of his laps, has the best Avg. Driver Rating (110.6), and has won 5 of the 18 stages
– At Small tracks this year he has a 10.75 Avg. Finish and 3 Top 5’s with a best finish of 3rd in 4 races
– In the 4 races he’s ran 65% of his laps in the Top 15, led 17% of his laps, and has a decent 94.23 Avg. Driver Rating
– At Phoenix this Spring Larson ran all 317 laps in the Top 15, led 63% of the race, had the best Driver Rating (139.0), and finished 4th after a late restart shuffle
– In 18 races at Phoenix he has 1 Win, 7 Top 5’s, and 2 DNF’s leading to an 11.72 Avg. Finish
– He’s ran 79% of his Phoenix laps in the Top 15, led 7% of his laps, and has a respectable 97.73 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Larson’s 2023 stats say he has been one of the four best drivers, except in finishing races. His playoffs have been about the same, struggles to finish some but when he does it’s good. Small tracks have been mostly good as he’s run good and finished good. Phoenix is like this as well, especially this year, but he only has 1 Win here. All in all the stats tell me that Larson will be up front this weekend and if he doesn’t DNF will finish in the Top 5.
1st Seed – Christopher Bell (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.29 | 2nd of 35 | T75th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.46% | 12th of 35 | T202nd of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 71.01% | 5th of 35 | 139th of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 91.96 | 5th of 35 | 157th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 2 | T8th of 64 | T106th of 1427 |
| Poles | 6 | 1st of 64 | T7th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 3 | T9th of 64 | T146th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 7 | T6th of 64 | T98th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 10 | T5th of 64 | T122nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 19 | 2nd of 64 | T89th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T5th of 35 | T237th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 4 | 9th of 64 | T46th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 45 | 2nd of 64 | T26th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 240 | T5th of 64 | T44th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 14 | 9th of 64 | T47th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 8.56(2nd), 76.62% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 97.53(4th), Best 1st, Worst 23rd, Laps Completed 99.96%, Led 12.45% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 4 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 13 Stage T10’s, 4.44 Stage Pts Per Stage, 7 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Poles (longest streak in Cup Series this year and tied 12th longest in Cup Series all-time)
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, tied longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 13.0(12th), 84.03% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 92.83(7th), Best 6th, Worst 29th, Laps Completed 99.84%, Led 0.16% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.88 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 6th, Started 5th, Led 0 laps, Finished 3rd in Stage 1 and 7th in Stage 2, ran 316 Laps in Top15 (99.68% of laps he ran), had 111.8 Driver Rating (ranked 4th)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 7 Races
- 14.43 Avg. Finish (Ranks 13th)
- Best Finish: 6th, Worst: 26th
- Completed 99.86% of laps (% ranks 3rd)
- 58.4% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 15th)
- 83.61 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 13th)
- Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
- 0 Top 5’s
- 4 Top 10’s, 57.14% (% ranks T9th)
- 4 Top 15’s, 57.14% (% ranks 14th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 28.57% (% ranks 15th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 5 Stage T10’s, 35.17% (% ranks 13th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Christopher Bell is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Bell ran 498 of 500 laps last week in the Top 15 and finished 7th, his 19th Top 10 this year, 1 behind the series lead held by William Byron
– He is one of two drivers on a 3 race Top 10 streak entering this weekend, the longest active streak in the Cup Series
– 9 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T5th or better including his 12.29 Avg. Finish, 91.96 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Poles, 19 Top 10’s, and 45 Stage T10’s
– Only 29% of his 7 Top 3’s have been wins
– His 8.56 Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races is 2nd best and his 97.53 Avg. Driver Rating is good for 4th best
– He’s ran 77% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led 12.45% of his laps, has 4 Poles, and 4 Top 5’s
– In 4 Small track races this year he has a 13.0 Avg. Finish with just 2 Top 10’s and a best finish of 6th
– He’s ran 84% of his Small track laps in the Top 15, has a decent 92.83 Avg. Driver Rating, and only 2.88 Stage Pts Per Stage
– This year in the Spring Phoenix race Bell ran all but 1 lap in the Top 15, had the 4th best Driver Rating (111.8), and finished 6th; but also led 0 laps
– This was his 4th Top 10 in 7 career Phoenix Cup races and also his best finish in those 7 starts
– He’s only ran 58% of his career Phoenix laps in the Top 15, has led 0 laps here, and has a mediocre 83.61 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Bell’s 2023 stats aren’t maybe among the 4 best, but they are good enough to justify his Championship 4 spot. However, his playoff stats are what really says how good he’s been of late as he’s been one of the best in the playoffs. Then again this is a Small track where he’s ran well this year but hasn’t finished well. He finished 6th at Phoenix this Spring but in his career here he’s been mediocre. All of this tells me Bell finishes this weekend somewhere between 5th and 12th.
– Christopher Bell is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Bell ran 498 of 500 laps last week in the Top 15 and finished 7th, his 19th Top 10 this year, 1 behind the series lead held by William Byron
– He is one of two drivers on a 3 race Top 10 streak entering this weekend, the longest active streak in the Cup Series
– 9 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T5th or better including his 12.29 Avg. Finish, 91.96 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Poles, 19 Top 10’s, and 45 Stage T10’s
– Only 29% of his 7 Top 3’s have been wins
– His 8.56 Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races is 2nd best and his 97.53 Avg. Driver Rating is good for 4th best
– He’s ran 77% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, led 12.45% of his laps, has 4 Poles, and 4 Top 5’s
– In 4 Small track races this year he has a 13.0 Avg. Finish with just 2 Top 10’s and a best finish of 6th
– He’s ran 84% of his Small track laps in the Top 15, has a decent 92.83 Avg. Driver Rating, and only 2.88 Stage Pts Per Stage
– This year in the Spring Phoenix race Bell ran all but 1 lap in the Top 15, had the 4th best Driver Rating (111.8), and finished 6th; but also led 0 laps
– This was his 4th Top 10 in 7 career Phoenix Cup races and also his best finish in those 7 starts
– He’s only ran 58% of his career Phoenix laps in the Top 15, has led 0 laps here, and has a mediocre 83.61 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Bell’s 2023 stats aren’t maybe among the 4 best, but they are good enough to justify his Championship 4 spot. However, his playoff stats are what really says how good he’s been of late as he’s been one of the best in the playoffs. Then again this is a Small track where he’s ran well this year but hasn’t finished well. He finished 6th at Phoenix this Spring but in his career here he’s been mediocre. All of this tells me Bell finishes this weekend somewhere between 5th and 12th.
1st Seed – Ryan Blaney (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 14.43 | T7th of 35 | T177th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.33% | 14th of 35 | T215th of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 71.33% | 4th of 35 | 133rd of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 88.34 | 7th of 35 | 192nd of 786‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T3rd of 64 | T70th of 1427 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 64 | T280th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 6 | 4th of 64 | T65th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 7 | T6th of 64 | T98th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 7 | T11th of 64 | T202nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 17 | T4th of 64 | T146th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T5th of 35 | T237th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T4th of 64 | T21st of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 33 | 8th of 64 | T70th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 219 | 7th of 64 | 58th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 21 | T4th of 64 | T22nd of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 10.33(3rd), 78.81% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 97.38(5th), Best 1st, Worst 28th, Laps Completed 99.6%, Led 7.79% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 3 Stage Wins, 13 Stage T10’s, 4.78 Stage Pts Per Stage, 13 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 2 straight Top 3 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, tied longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 8.25(2nd), 96.99% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 111.6(2nd), Best 2nd, Worst 22nd, Laps Completed 100%, Led 6.58% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 7.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 2nd, Started 8th, Led 0 laps, Finished 6th in Stage 1 and 8th in Stage 2, ran 315 Laps in Top15 (99.37% of laps he ran), had 102.5 Driver Rating (ranked 6th)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 15 Races
- 11.93 Avg. Finish (Ranks T8th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 37th
- Completed 93.05% of laps (% ranks 34th)
- 88.21% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 1st)
- 98.23 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 6th)
- Led 9.8% of laps he’s run (% ranks 5th)
- 0 Wins
- 3 Poles, 20.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 2 Top 2’s, 13.33% (% ranks 7th)
- 6 Top 5’s, 40.0% (% ranks T4th)
- 10 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks 4th)
- 3 finishes outside Top 20, 20.0% (% ranks T9th)
- 2 DNF’s, 13.33% (% ranks 32nd)
- 4 Stage Wins, 15.38% (% ranks 2nd)
- 18 Stage T10’s, 69.23% (% ranks 5th)
- 4.35 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 3rd)
Main Points & Outlook
– Ryan Blaney is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Last week, at Martinsville, Blaney ran all but 1 lap in the Top 15, led 29% of the race, and went on to win his 3rd race of the season
– He is the other half of the duo mentioned above that is on a 3 race Top 10 streak, but better than that he’s on a 2 race Top 2 streak
– Only 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (his 71.33 Laps in Top 15%, 3 Wins, 6 Top 2’s, 17 Top 10’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– All 7 of his Top 5 finishes have been Top 3 finishes
– In the 9 playoff races he has a 10.33 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 79% of his laps in the playoffs in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 97.38 Avg. Driver Rating
– This year on Small tracks he has the 2nd best Avg. Finish (8.25) with 2 Top 3’s in 4 races
– In these 4 races he’s ran 97% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (111.6), and has led 6.58% of his laps
– This Spring in Phoenix Blaney ran all but 2 laps in the Top 15, but he led 0 laps en route to the 6th best Driver Rating (102.5) and a 2nd place finish
– His career Cup Avg. Finish at Phoenix is 11.93 and he has 3 Poles with 6 Top 5’s in 15 races
– In these 15 races he has an 88.21 Laps in Top 15%, led 10% of his laps, and has a 98.23 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Looking at the entire 2023 stats above it’s hard to say Blaney deserves the championship this year, but his playoff stats say he does deserve it. Either way he is here with a chance at it. Good news for Blaney is that he’s done very well on Small tracks this year and has done well at Phoenix in his career, including earlier this year. Based on the stats Blaney is my favorite for the championship and I see him finishing somewhere between 1st and 7th.
– Ryan Blaney is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Last week, at Martinsville, Blaney ran all but 1 lap in the Top 15, led 29% of the race, and went on to win his 3rd race of the season
– He is the other half of the duo mentioned above that is on a 3 race Top 10 streak, but better than that he’s on a 2 race Top 2 streak
– Only 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (his 71.33 Laps in Top 15%, 3 Wins, 6 Top 2’s, 17 Top 10’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– All 7 of his Top 5 finishes have been Top 3 finishes
– In the 9 playoff races he has a 10.33 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 3 Top 3’s, and 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 79% of his laps in the playoffs in the Top 15, led 8% of his laps, and has a 97.38 Avg. Driver Rating
– This year on Small tracks he has the 2nd best Avg. Finish (8.25) with 2 Top 3’s in 4 races
– In these 4 races he’s ran 97% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (111.6), and has led 6.58% of his laps
– This Spring in Phoenix Blaney ran all but 2 laps in the Top 15, but he led 0 laps en route to the 6th best Driver Rating (102.5) and a 2nd place finish
– His career Cup Avg. Finish at Phoenix is 11.93 and he has 3 Poles with 6 Top 5’s in 15 races
– In these 15 races he has an 88.21 Laps in Top 15%, led 10% of his laps, and has a 98.23 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Looking at the entire 2023 stats above it’s hard to say Blaney deserves the championship this year, but his playoff stats say he does deserve it. Either way he is here with a chance at it. Good news for Blaney is that he’s done very well on Small tracks this year and has done well at Phoenix in his career, including earlier this year. Based on the stats Blaney is my favorite for the championship and I see him finishing somewhere between 1st and 7th.
1st Seed – William Byron (P & OP)
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.17 | 1st of 35 | T41st of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.37% | 13th of 35 | 212th of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 72.76% | 2nd of 35 | 118th of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 98.09 | 1st of 35 | 79th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 6 | 1st of 64 | T16th of 1427 |
| Poles | 3 | T3rd of 64 | T40th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 9 | 1st of 64 | T25th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 10 | 2nd of 64 | T43rd of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 14 | T1st of 64 | T42nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 20 | 1st of 64 | T64th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T5th of 35 | T237th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 8 | T1st of 64 | T11th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 42 | T4th of 64 | T36th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 294 | 2nd of 64 | T17th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 38 | 1st of 64 | 9th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 6.33(1st), 73.22% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 98.46(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 15th, Laps Completed 99.96%, Led 1.61% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 10 Stage T10’s, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, 5 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Wins (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 2 finishes (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 9.25(T3rd), 90.09% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 111.68(1st), Best 1st, Worst 24th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 23.47% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 7.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 1st, Started 3rd, Led 64 laps (20.19%), Finished 1st in Stage 1 and 2nd in Stage 2, ran 317 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 131.4 Driver Rating (ranked 2nd)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 11 Races
- 11.91 Avg. Finish (Ranks 7th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 24th
- Completed 99.91% of laps (% ranks 2nd)
- 78.3% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 7th)
- 91.45 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 10th)
- Led 2.65% of laps he’s run (% ranks 12th)
- 1 Win, 9.09% (% ranks 5th)
- 1 Top 5, 9.09% (% ranks 15th)
- 6 Top 10’s, 54.55% (% ranks 12th)
- 7 Top 15’s, 63.64% (% ranks 12th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 9.09% (% ranks 2nd)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Stage Wins, 9.09% (% ranks 5th)
- 14 Stage T10’s, 63.64% (% ranks 7th)
Main Points & Outlook
– William Byron is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Last week was probably Byron’s worst race of the year as he ran just 35% of his laps in the Top 15 and had to scrap for a 13th place finish
– This broke his 6 race Top 10 finish streak
– 13 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better with only his 97.37 Completed Laps% and 3 DNF’s being worse
– His 11.17 Avg. Finish, 98.09 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Wins, 9 Top 2’s, 14 Top 5’s, 20 Top 10’s, 8 Stage Wins, and 38 Stage Pts all rank (T)1st this year
– He has the best Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races this year (6.33) with 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 7 Top 10’s
– Only 73% of his playoff laps have been run in the Top 15 and he’s led just 1.61% of his laps, but he has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (98.46)
– In 4 Small track races this year he has a 9.25 Avg. Finish with 1 Win and 3 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 90% of his Small track laps this year in the Top 15, led 23.47% of his laps, and he has the best Avg. Driver Rating (111.68) on Small tracks
– Byron ran all 317 laps in the Top 15 at Phoenix this Spring, led 20% of the race, had the 2nd best Driver Rating (131.4), and won the race
– In 11 races at Phoenix he has an 11.91 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 6 Top 10’s, and only 1 finish out of the Top 20
– He’s ran 78% of his laps here in the Top 15, led just 3% of his laps and has a 91.45 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Last week Byron just held on to make the Championship 4, but his 2023 overall and playoff stats say he deserves this more than any other driver. Some good news for him is that he’s ran very well on Small tracks this year and finished well too. This year he won the Phoenix race, but this is his only Top 5 finish here in 11 races. Nonetheless he’s done decent here overall. All of this lets me see that Byron ends up either 1st or 2nd, or 6th to 10th.
– William Byron is notable because he is in the Championship 4
– Last week was probably Byron’s worst race of the year as he ran just 35% of his laps in the Top 15 and had to scrap for a 13th place finish
– This broke his 6 race Top 10 finish streak
– 13 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better with only his 97.37 Completed Laps% and 3 DNF’s being worse
– His 11.17 Avg. Finish, 98.09 Avg. Driver Rating, 6 Wins, 9 Top 2’s, 14 Top 5’s, 20 Top 10’s, 8 Stage Wins, and 38 Stage Pts all rank (T)1st this year
– He has the best Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races this year (6.33) with 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 7 Top 10’s
– Only 73% of his playoff laps have been run in the Top 15 and he’s led just 1.61% of his laps, but he has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (98.46)
– In 4 Small track races this year he has a 9.25 Avg. Finish with 1 Win and 3 Top 10’s
– He’s ran 90% of his Small track laps this year in the Top 15, led 23.47% of his laps, and he has the best Avg. Driver Rating (111.68) on Small tracks
– Byron ran all 317 laps in the Top 15 at Phoenix this Spring, led 20% of the race, had the 2nd best Driver Rating (131.4), and won the race
– In 11 races at Phoenix he has an 11.91 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 6 Top 10’s, and only 1 finish out of the Top 20
– He’s ran 78% of his laps here in the Top 15, led just 3% of his laps and has a 91.45 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Last week Byron just held on to make the Championship 4, but his 2023 overall and playoff stats say he deserves this more than any other driver. Some good news for him is that he’s ran very well on Small tracks this year and finished well too. This year he won the Phoenix race, but this is his only Top 5 finish here in 11 races. Nonetheless he’s done decent here overall. All of this lets me see that Byron ends up either 1st or 2nd, or 6th to 10th.
5th in Points – Denny Hamlin
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.49 | 4th of 35 | T87th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.67% | 19th of 35 | 269th of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 82.11% | 1st of 35 | 28th of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 97.82 | 2nd of 35 | 82nd of 786‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T3rd of 64 | T70th of 1427 |
| Poles | 4 | 2nd of 64 | T22nd of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 7 | T2nd of 64 | T48th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 11 | 1st of 64 | T32nd of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 14 | T1st of 64 | T42nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 18 | 3rd of 64 | T115th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 4 | T15th of 35 | T373rd of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 8 | T1st of 64 | T11th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 47 | 1st of 64 | T17th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 310 | 1st of 64 | 11th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 23 | 3rd of 64 | T20th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 12.89(8th), 85.18% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 103.5(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 97.62%, Led 22.3% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 4 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 3 Stage Wins, 14 Stage T10’s, 5.56 Stage Pts Per Stage, 8 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 9.25(T3rd), 98.81% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 106.1(4th), Best 2nd, Worst 23rd, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.32% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 6.63 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 23rd, Started 2nd, Led 0 laps, Finished 4th in Stage 1 and 6th in Stage 2, ran 313 Laps in Top15 (98.74% of laps he ran), had 93.5 Driver Rating (ranked 7th)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 36 Races
- 10.89 Avg. Finish (Ranks 5th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 35th
- Completed 99.44% of laps (% ranks 15th)
- 75.0% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 9th)
- 98.46 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 5th)
- Led 7.64% of laps he’s run (% ranks 8th)
- 2 Wins, 5.56% (% ranks T8th)
- 11 Top 3’s, 30.56% (% ranks 1st)
- 16 Top 5’s, 44.44% (% ranks 3rd)
- 27 Top 15’s, 75.0% (% ranks 6th)
- 6 finishes outside Top 20, 16.67% (% ranks T5th)
- 1 DNF, 2.78% (% ranks T20th)
- 2 Stage Wins, 7.69% (% ranks T7th)
- 3.38 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 6th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his 2023 overall stats
– Hamlin was one of just two drivers to run all 500 laps in the Top 15 last week, but he ultimately needed to win and he short of that mark finishing 3rd
– This was his best finish since Talladega Fall race where he finished 3rd as well
– His only 2023 Ranks above worse than T4th are his 96.67% and 4 DNF’s
– His 82.11 Laps in Top 15%, 11 Top 3’s, 14 Top 5’s, 8 Stage Wins, 47 Stage T10’s, and 310 Stage Pts all rank (T)1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– He has a 12.89 Avg. Finish thru the first 9 playoff races with 1 Win and 4 Top 3’s, but also 3 finishes out of the Top 20
– In the 9 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (103.5), and led 22% of his playoff laps
– He has a 9.25 Avg. Finish in the 4 Small track races this year with 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s
– In these 4 races he’s gotten 6.63 Stage Pts Per Stage and has ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15, but he’s led just 0.32% of his laps
– This Spring at Phoenix Hamlin ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 7th best Driver Rating (93.5), but wrecking Ross Chastain intentionally dropped Hamlin to a 23rd place finish
– He has a 10.89 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 11 Top 3’s, and only 6 finishes out of the Top 20 in 36 career Cup races at Phoenix
– In these 36 races he has just 1 DNF, a 98.46 Avg. Driver Rating, and has led 8% of his laps
Outlook for this weekend
Looking at the 2023 stats above it is a shame that Hamlin is not in the Championship 4. The way he’s ran in the playoffs also says he deserves a spot, but his finishes say otherwise. This is unfortunate as he’s ran well at Small tracks this year and in his career he’s done pretty darn well at Phoenix. After looking at the stats above I see Hamlin finishing between 1st and 6th this weekend.
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his 2023 overall stats
– Hamlin was one of just two drivers to run all 500 laps in the Top 15 last week, but he ultimately needed to win and he short of that mark finishing 3rd
– This was his best finish since Talladega Fall race where he finished 3rd as well
– His only 2023 Ranks above worse than T4th are his 96.67% and 4 DNF’s
– His 82.11 Laps in Top 15%, 11 Top 3’s, 14 Top 5’s, 8 Stage Wins, 47 Stage T10’s, and 310 Stage Pts all rank (T)1st in the 2023 Ranks above
– He has a 12.89 Avg. Finish thru the first 9 playoff races with 1 Win and 4 Top 3’s, but also 3 finishes out of the Top 20
– In the 9 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (103.5), and led 22% of his playoff laps
– He has a 9.25 Avg. Finish in the 4 Small track races this year with 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s
– In these 4 races he’s gotten 6.63 Stage Pts Per Stage and has ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15, but he’s led just 0.32% of his laps
– This Spring at Phoenix Hamlin ran 99% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 7th best Driver Rating (93.5), but wrecking Ross Chastain intentionally dropped Hamlin to a 23rd place finish
– He has a 10.89 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins, 11 Top 3’s, and only 6 finishes out of the Top 20 in 36 career Cup races at Phoenix
– In these 36 races he has just 1 DNF, a 98.46 Avg. Driver Rating, and has led 8% of his laps
Outlook for this weekend
Looking at the 2023 stats above it is a shame that Hamlin is not in the Championship 4. The way he’s ran in the playoffs also says he deserves a spot, but his finishes say otherwise. This is unfortunate as he’s ran well at Small tracks this year and in his career he’s done pretty darn well at Phoenix. After looking at the stats above I see Hamlin finishing between 1st and 6th this weekend.
12th in Points – Martin Truex Jr.
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.54 | 6th of 35 | T133rd of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 96.51% | 21st of 35 | T288th of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 65.3% | 8th of 35 | 189th of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 91.97 | 4th of 35 | 156th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T3rd of 64 | T70th of 1427 |
| Poles | 3 | T3rd of 64 | T40th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | T5th of 64 | T85th of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 8 | T3rd of 64 | T70th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 9 | T8th of 64 | T150th of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 16 | T8th of 64 | T173rd of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T5th of 35 | T237th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 6 | T4th of 64 | T21st of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 41 | 6th of 64 | T42nd of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 240 | T5th of 64 | T44th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 21 | T4th of 64 | T22nd of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 19.78(21st), 38.27% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 70.2(17th), Best 9th, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 89.13%, Led 2.71% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 2 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 7 Stage T10’s, 2.06 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Poles (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series and tied 43rd longest in Cup Series all-time)
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 6.0(1st), 70.18% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 107.23(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 17th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 25.54% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 4.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 17th, Started 13th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 31 Laps in Top15 (9.78% of laps he ran), had 66.7 Driver Rating (ranked 19th)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 35 Races
- 15.6 Avg. Finish (Ranks 15th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 43rd
- Completed 92.46% of laps (% ranks 35th)
- 73.75% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 10th)
- 89.55 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 12th)
- Led 2.56% of laps he’s run (% ranks 13th)
- 1 Win, 2.86% (% ranks T11th)
- 4 Top 3’s, 11.43% (% ranks 13th)
- 14 Top 10’s, 40.0% (% ranks 14th)
- 23 Top 15’s, 65.71% (% ranks 10th)
- 8 finishes outside Top 20, 22.86% (% ranks 12th)
- 5 DNF’s, 14.29% (% ranks T34th)
- 1 Stage Win, 3.85% (% ranks T9th)
- 2.85 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 10th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of how well he’s done on Small tracks this year
– Truex had a fast car last weekend at Martinsville, but a speeding penalty cost him as he ran just 51% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up finishing 12th
– He has just 1 Top 10 finish in the last 10 races, a 9th at Las Vegas
– Only 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (91.97 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 3 Poles, 8 Top 3’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– From the start of the playoffs to now his Avg. Finish has dropped from 11.38 to 13.54
– He has a 19.78 Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– He’s only ran 38% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, has a subpar 70.2 Avg. Driver Rating, and has only gotten 2.06 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At Small tracks this year he has a 6.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins and 3 Top 5’s in 4 races
– In the 4 races he’s ran just 70% of his laps in the Top 15, but has led 25.54% of his laps and has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (107.23)
– At Phoenix this Spring Truex ran just 10% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 19th best Driver Rating (66.7), and finished 17th
– This was his 35th Cup race here at Phoenix and in the 35 races he has a 15.6 Avg. Finish with more DNF’s (5) than finishes in the Top 3 (4)
– In these 35 races he’s ran 74% of his laps in the Top 15, has just 1 Stage Win, and has an 89.55 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Starting off the playoffs Truex’s 2023 stats made him a Championship 4 lock, but now they scream of him not deserving a shot at the championship. As bad as this is his playoff stats are horrendous. This is unfortunate as he did very well on Small tracks this year, but he was awful here in the Spring. In addition, he’s been just okay here overall. All of this tells me that Truex finishes the 2023 season with a 5th-12th place finish.
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of how well he’s done on Small tracks this year
– Truex had a fast car last weekend at Martinsville, but a speeding penalty cost him as he ran just 51% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up finishing 12th
– He has just 1 Top 10 finish in the last 10 races, a 9th at Las Vegas
– Only 6 of his 15 2023 Ranks above are T4th or better (91.97 Avg. Driver Rating, 3 Wins, 3 Poles, 8 Top 3’s, 6 Stage Wins, and 21 Playoff Pts)
– From the start of the playoffs to now his Avg. Finish has dropped from 11.38 to 13.54
– He has a 19.78 Avg. Finish in the 9 playoff races with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– He’s only ran 38% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, has a subpar 70.2 Avg. Driver Rating, and has only gotten 2.06 Stage Pts Per Stage
– At Small tracks this year he has a 6.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Wins and 3 Top 5’s in 4 races
– In the 4 races he’s ran just 70% of his laps in the Top 15, but has led 25.54% of his laps and has the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (107.23)
– At Phoenix this Spring Truex ran just 10% of his laps in the Top 15, had the 19th best Driver Rating (66.7), and finished 17th
– This was his 35th Cup race here at Phoenix and in the 35 races he has a 15.6 Avg. Finish with more DNF’s (5) than finishes in the Top 3 (4)
– In these 35 races he’s ran 74% of his laps in the Top 15, has just 1 Stage Win, and has an 89.55 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Starting off the playoffs Truex’s 2023 stats made him a Championship 4 lock, but now they scream of him not deserving a shot at the championship. As bad as this is his playoff stats are horrendous. This is unfortunate as he did very well on Small tracks this year, but he was awful here in the Spring. In addition, he’s been just okay here overall. All of this tells me that Truex finishes the 2023 season with a 5th-12th place finish.
14th in Points – Kevin Harvick
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 14.94 | 11th of 35 | T208th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.08% | 2nd of 35 | T47th of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 64.71% | 9th of 35 | 192nd of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 80.55 | 13th of 35 | 288th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T16th of 64 | T287th of 1427 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 64 | T280th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T14th of 64 | T263rd of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T18th of 64 | T338th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 6 | 14th of 64 | T232nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 13 | T13th of 64 | T246th of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T2nd of 35 | T33rd of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T14th of 64 | T89th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 30 | T9th of 64 | T79th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 140 | 11th of 64 | 85th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T18th of 64 | T117th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 18.33(16th), 52.65% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 77.46(13th), Best 6th, Worst 38th, Laps Completed 99.78%, Led 0.44% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 6 Stage T10’s, 1.11 Stage Pts Per Stage, 0 Playoff Pts earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 9.5(5th), 91.43% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 96.4(5th), Best 4th, Worst 19th, Laps Completed 99.92%, Led 3.65% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Pole, 0 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.38 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- Finished 5th, Started 15th, Led 36 laps (11.36%), Finished 8th in Stage 1 and 3rd in Stage 2, ran 312 Laps in Top15 (98.42% of laps he ran), had 116.0 Driver Rating (ranked 3rd)
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 41 Races
- 8.56 Avg. Finish (Ranks 1st)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 34th
- Completed 99.84% of laps (% ranks T5th)
- 86.19% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 3rd)
- 110.41 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 13.29% of laps he’s run (% ranks 1st)
- 9 Wins, 21.95% (% ranks 1st)
- 12 Top 2’s, 29.27% (% ranks 1st)
- 20 Top 5’s, 48.78% (% ranks 1st)
- 30 Top 10’s, 73.17% (% ranks 2nd)
- 4 finishes outside Top 20, 9.76% (% ranks 3rd)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 3.85% (% ranks T9th)
- 22 Stage T10’s, 84.62% (% ranks 2nd)
- 4.62 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kevin Harvick is notable because of how good he did in the Spring race at Phoenix
– At Martinsville Harvick ran just 65% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up finishing 16th in his penultimate NASCAR race
– His last Top 10 finish came more than a month ago, a 6th at Texas
– His only 2023 Ranks above better than 10th are his 99.08 Completed Laps%, 64.71 Laps in Top 15%, 1 DNF, and 30 Stage T10’s
– His 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, and 1 Playoff Pt all rank worse than 15th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 9 playoff races he has an 18.33 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– He’s only ran 53% of his playoff laps in the Top 15 and led just 0.44% of his playoff laps, but he does have the 13th best Avg. Driver Rating (77.46)
– At the 4 Small tracks this year he’s ran 91.43% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 5th best Avg. Driver Rating (96.4), and has gotten 3.38 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In these 4 races he has a 9.5 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 5’s and a worst finish of 19th
– Harvick ran 98.42% of his laps in the Top 15 earlier this year at Phoenix, had the 3rd best Driver Rating (116.0), and was in great shape to win but ended up 5th
– In his 41 career races here at Phoenix he’s ran 99.84% of his laps, has 0 DNF’s, and more wins (9) than finishes out of the Top 20 (4)
– His 8.56 Avg Finish, 110.41 Avg. Driver Rating, 13.29 Laps Led%, 21.95 Win%, 29.27 Top 2%, 48.78 Top 5%, and 4.62 Stage Pts Per Stage here at Phoenix are best among active drivers.
Outlook for this weekend
Harvick has had a bit of a disappointing final season and his 2023 stats above show that. Worse yet are that his playoffs have been pretty bad, hence his 14th place in points. This is all bad, but what’s good is that he’s been good on Small tracks this year and has been excellent at Phoenix in his career, not to mention he was close to winning here this Spring. All in all when the checkered flag waves on Harvick’s career I see him being between 4th and 8th.
– Kevin Harvick is notable because of how good he did in the Spring race at Phoenix
– At Martinsville Harvick ran just 65% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up finishing 16th in his penultimate NASCAR race
– His last Top 10 finish came more than a month ago, a 6th at Texas
– His only 2023 Ranks above better than 10th are his 99.08 Completed Laps%, 64.71 Laps in Top 15%, 1 DNF, and 30 Stage T10’s
– His 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, and 1 Playoff Pt all rank worse than 15th in the 2023 Ranks above
– In the 9 playoff races he has an 18.33 Avg. Finish with more finishes out of the Top 20 (2) than in the Top 10 (1)
– He’s only ran 53% of his playoff laps in the Top 15 and led just 0.44% of his playoff laps, but he does have the 13th best Avg. Driver Rating (77.46)
– At the 4 Small tracks this year he’s ran 91.43% of his laps in the Top 15, has the 5th best Avg. Driver Rating (96.4), and has gotten 3.38 Stage Pts Per Stage
– In these 4 races he has a 9.5 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 5’s and a worst finish of 19th
– Harvick ran 98.42% of his laps in the Top 15 earlier this year at Phoenix, had the 3rd best Driver Rating (116.0), and was in great shape to win but ended up 5th
– In his 41 career races here at Phoenix he’s ran 99.84% of his laps, has 0 DNF’s, and more wins (9) than finishes out of the Top 20 (4)
– His 8.56 Avg Finish, 110.41 Avg. Driver Rating, 13.29 Laps Led%, 21.95 Win%, 29.27 Top 2%, 48.78 Top 5%, and 4.62 Stage Pts Per Stage here at Phoenix are best among active drivers.
Outlook for this weekend
Harvick has had a bit of a disappointing final season and his 2023 stats above show that. Worse yet are that his playoffs have been pretty bad, hence his 14th place in points. This is all bad, but what’s good is that he’s been good on Small tracks this year and has been excellent at Phoenix in his career, not to mention he was close to winning here this Spring. All in all when the checkered flag waves on Harvick’s career I see him being between 4th and 8th.
17th in Points – Chase Elliott
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 35 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.96 | 5th of 35 | 111th of 830 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 93.34% | 27th of 35 | 551st of 830 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 64.36% | 10th of 35 | 195th of 786‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 83.34 | 9th of 35 | 247th of 786‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T16th of 64 | T287th of 1427 |
| Poles | 0 | T16th of 64 | T280th of 1427 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T12th of 64 | T192nd of 1427 |
| Top 3’s | 4 | 12th of 64 | T188th of 1427 |
| Top 5’s | 7 | T11th of 64 | T202nd of 1427 |
| Top 10’s | 15 | 12th of 64 | T201st of 1427 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T5th of 35 | T237th of 830 |
| Stage Wins | 2 | T11th of 64 | T70th of 451* |
| Stage T10s | 22 | T15th of 64 | T105th of 451* |
| Stage Pts | 116 | 14th of 64 | 96th of 451* |
| Playoff Pts² | 2 | 17th of 64 | T108th of 451* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 35 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- 2023 Playoff Statistics (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 5+ Playoff starts, 35 drivers)
- 9 Races, Avg. Finish 12.44(6th), 69.19% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 85.04(9th), Best 6th, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 99.93%, Led 5.64% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 10 Stage T10’s, 2.89 Stage Pts Per Stage, 1 Playoff Pt earned in races
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Small track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Small track start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 11.5(8th), 65.76% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 77.05(15th), Best 11th, Worst 12th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 0.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2023 Spring Phoenix race
- did not race
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Phoenix, 47 drivers)
- 14 Races
- 11.93 Avg. Finish (Ranks T8th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 39th
- Completed 96.54% of laps (% ranks 24th)
- 87.2% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 2nd)
- 107.5 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 2nd)
- Led 12.89% of laps he’s run (% ranks 2nd)
- 1 Win, 7.14% (% ranks 7th)
- 3 Top 3’s, 21.43% (% ranks 9th)
- 8 Top 10’s, 57.14% (% ranks T9th)
- 11 Top 15’s, 78.57% (% ranks 4th)
- 3 finishes outside Top 20, 21.43% (% ranks 11th)
- 1 DNF, 7.14% (% ranks T24th)
- 2 Stage Wins, 8.33% (% ranks 6th)
- 21 Stage T10’s, 87.5% (% ranks 1st)
- 4.21 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 5th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Chase Elliott is notable because of how well he’s done at Phoenix in his career
– Elliott ran 89% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at Martinsville and was leading late, but he had to pit for fuel leaving him to finish 17th one lap down
– He now has 3 straight finishes of 15th or worse
– Even with missing 7 races this year he has 4 2023 Ranks above being 10th or better (12.96 Avg. Finish, 64.36 Laps in Top 15%, 83.34 Avg. Driver Rating, and 3 DNF’s)
– His 15 Top 10’s this year are more than Kevin Harvick, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Bubba Wallace
– In the 9 playoff races he has a 12.44 Avg. Finish with 0 Top 5’s, but 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran just 69% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, but he’s led 6% of his laps, and has the 9th best Avg. Driver Rating (85.04)
– He’s ran 2 of the 4 Small track races this year finishing 11th and 12th in the 2 races
– In the 2 races he’s ran 66% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 77.05 Avg. Driver Rating, and has gotten only 0.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Elliott was out due to injury for the Phoenix race this Spring
– In 8 career Phoenix Cup races he has an 11.93 Avg. Finish with just 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 1 DNF
– He’s ran 87% of his career Phoenix laps in the Top 15, has a 107.5 Avg. Driver Rating, and led 13% of his laps; all of this ranking 2nd among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Elliott may have missed out on the driver playoffs but he was in the owner playoffs until he was eliminated last week. His 2023 stats above are respectable for someone who missed 7 races, and his playoff stats aren’t good or bad; just average. In the Small track races he’s ran he’s been average, but in his career at Phoenix he’s been far above average. All of these stats above tell me Elliott will finish this year between 6th and 15th.
– Chase Elliott is notable because of how well he’s done at Phoenix in his career
– Elliott ran 89% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at Martinsville and was leading late, but he had to pit for fuel leaving him to finish 17th one lap down
– He now has 3 straight finishes of 15th or worse
– Even with missing 7 races this year he has 4 2023 Ranks above being 10th or better (12.96 Avg. Finish, 64.36 Laps in Top 15%, 83.34 Avg. Driver Rating, and 3 DNF’s)
– His 15 Top 10’s this year are more than Kevin Harvick, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Bubba Wallace
– In the 9 playoff races he has a 12.44 Avg. Finish with 0 Top 5’s, but 5 Top 10’s
– He’s ran just 69% of his playoff laps in the Top 15, but he’s led 6% of his laps, and has the 9th best Avg. Driver Rating (85.04)
– He’s ran 2 of the 4 Small track races this year finishing 11th and 12th in the 2 races
– In the 2 races he’s ran 66% of his laps in the Top 15, has just a 77.05 Avg. Driver Rating, and has gotten only 0.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Elliott was out due to injury for the Phoenix race this Spring
– In 8 career Phoenix Cup races he has an 11.93 Avg. Finish with just 1 Win, 3 Top 3’s, and 1 DNF
– He’s ran 87% of his career Phoenix laps in the Top 15, has a 107.5 Avg. Driver Rating, and led 13% of his laps; all of this ranking 2nd among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Elliott may have missed out on the driver playoffs but he was in the owner playoffs until he was eliminated last week. His 2023 stats above are respectable for someone who missed 7 races, and his playoff stats aren’t good or bad; just average. In the Small track races he’s ran he’s been average, but in his career at Phoenix he’s been far above average. All of these stats above tell me Elliott will finish this year between 6th and 15th.
