This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Championship race at Phoenix Raceway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Phoenix Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 8th
Additional notes from last week:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Bubba Wallace 11th, J.J. Yeley 35th, B.J. McLeod 36th)
-16 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the Top 13 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 13
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Kevin Harvick
Disappointment: Justin Haley
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 7th -5 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8th -3 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 16th -8 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 36th -27 |
| 10. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 22nd -12 |
| 11. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th -14 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 1st +11 |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +0 |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 20th -3 |
| 18. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 32nd -12 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 12th +9 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 9th +15 |
| 25. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 14th +11 |
| 26. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 35th -9 |
| 27. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 13th +14 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 30th -2 |
| 29. | 42 | Carson Hocevar | 19th +10 |
| 30. | 51 | Ryan Newman | 34th -4 |
| 31. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 31st +0 |
| 32. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 31 | Justin Haley | 29th +4 |
| 34. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 26th +8 |
| 35. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 33rd +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
