On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series will officially end for the 2023 season. The Cup Series Championship race will be hosted at Phoenix Raceway. After a long season, a champion will be crowned. Four drivers will battle to see who can reign supreme in a one race playoff. Whoever finishes the best (via winning) between Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Kyle Larson will hoist the championship trophy in front of a sellout crowd. Every detail will matter on Sunday. A slip up on a restart, mistake on pit road, or bad qualifying effort can be the difference between glory and agony. Who will leave the Cup Series Championship race as the champion?
While the Championship Four battle will hog most of the headlines, there are other storylines and drivers to watch on Sunday. The most notable nonplayoff driver will be the retiring Kevin Harvick, who will exchange his driver gear for a suit and tie (and dealing with Clint Bowyer) on Sundays in 2024. After a rather chaotic silly season, many drivers will be in their current rides for the last time before switching teams in the offseason. While there is a battle for the championship, the fight for fifth in points is still an active one.
With the season finale here, how can you whittle down the list to only five drivers? For this week’s edition of 5 Drivers to Watch, there will be eight featured drivers. The Championship Four drivers will be grouped together as one. Since they will share the lion’s share of the spotlight everywhere else, Pit Pass Network wants to highlight four additional drivers this week. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
AJ Allmendinger
AJ Allmendinger will likely not be a factor in the Cup Series Championship race this Sunday. Allmendinger currently holds a 17.8 average finish at Phoenix in the Cup Series. Despite having a small good streak to end the season, Allmendinger’s 2023 season on ovals has been a letdown. However, he is one to watch this week because it might be his last race as a fulltime Cup Series driver. It is already known that Justin Haley will be leaving Kaulig Racing after Sunday. While fans know who will drive the 31, the status of the 16 Cup car is a mystery.
If this is AJ Allmendinger last fulltime start in Cup, it will be a bitter end to Allmendinger’s return. Although this season has been disappointing, Allmendinger has the potential to be a playoff driver. Not only a playoff driver, but one that could advance through the playoffs. Especially considering how the playoffs look next year, Allmendinger could be a Round of 8 driver. Funding seems to be the issue for Allmendinger’s Cup future. Fans should root for Allmendinger to have a strong Sunday this weekend. Since the decision has not been announced yet, maybe there is still a chance Allmendinger returns to the 16. If not, hopefully the Cup Series Championship race will be a solid sendoff for AJ Allmendinger.
Aric Almirola
Prior to the Martinsville race, Aric Almirola announced that he will not be returning to Stewart-Haas Racing following this season. While the assumption all year has been that Almirola would retire, his announcement indicates a desire for a part-time schedule next. Whether that is in Cup or Xfinity, Almirola is hoping to race in 2024. However, Phoenix will mark his final start as a fulltime Cup and SHR driver. Almirola almost had a storybook moment last week as he led late in the Xfinity 500. However, he had to settle for second.
Heading into Phoenix, Aric Almirola could be a contender for a strong Top-10 run. Since joining SHR, Almirola’s average finish at Phoenix is 12.7 with 5 Top-10s in 11 starts. Now, his NextGen results at Phoenix have been less than stellar (finishes of 12, 20, and 33). Despite that, SHR has usually ran well at Phoenix. Chase Briscoe won the spring race last year and Kevin Harvick essentially owns the track. Almirola has a recent history of winning a race at a random time. While it might be a large longshot bet, Almirola winning Sunday might not be too farfetched.
BJ McLeod
While the previous two entries are about drivers who might be driving their last race as a fulltime competitor, this entry is more about an entire team. Back in 2020, Live Fast Motorsports formed when Matt Tift and Joe Falk teamed up with BJ McLeod to buy a charter. Since 2021, Live Fast Motorsports has been a back marker team trying to find speed. While they have not been competitive, the team has steadily improved. 2023 has been their best season yet with their 11 lead lap finishes being a team best.
Despite the progress, Live Fast ownership decided to sell their charter to Spire Motorsports. From a business perspective, it made sense to sell the charter for $40 million. The team plans on still running a part time schedule next year, but the lack of open cars operating in recent history brings doubt. While BJ McLeod will be running around the back, it will be worth watching the final race of Live Fast as a chartered team. Although Live Fast was not a competitive chartered team, they did provide fans with some of the best paint schemes over the past three years. Below are some personal favorites:
2021
2022
2023
Kevin Harvick
After 23 years, Kevin Harvick will be retiring from the NASCAR Cup Series after Sunday’s race. Harvick’s retirement tour will come to an end at his best statistical track. In 41 starts, Harvick has found victory lane 9 times at Phoenix. His average finish of 8.6 is the current track record, besting Dale Earnhardt by almost a full position. No one owns Phoenix Raceway better than Kevin Harvick. While there has not been a non-champion winner during this version of the playoffs, this year could be the first.
In the spring race, Kevin Harvick looked primed to win the race before a late caution. Ultimately, Harvick finished fifth after other teams played the pit strategy game. Harvick has yet to win in his final season. Phoenix in the spring and the Southern 500 have been the closest Harvick has come. Winning at Phoenix in his last Cup Series race would be a fitting end for Harvick’s career. If NASCAR were to want a non-Championship Four driver to win Sunday, it would be Kevin Harvick. During the Cup Series Championship race, Harvick should be a contender for the win.
Championship Four
As mentioned earlier, the Championship Four will be lumped together as one entry for this week’s article. Since these drivers will be the focus of the week, their sections will be lighter than the other entries.
Christopher Bell
As the only driver to compete in both NextGen Championship Fours, Christopher Bell might have the edge compared to his competitors. With that said, Bell’s performance last year was underwhelming. After winning back-to-back elimination races, Bell was the clear fourth best Championship Four driver. If not for Chase Elliott spinning, Bell would have finished last among the four. With that experience, Bell is hoping to have a better showing this year. Phoenix is not one of his strongest tracks though. Based on his competition, Bell might fade out of contention quickly.
Ryan Blaney
Now that Ryan Blaney has made the Championship Four, he should be the favorite to win it. In the past two Phoenix races, Blaney has finished second. Blaney is currently riding four straight Top-5s at the track. After winning at Martinsville, Blaney has the most momentum out of the four drivers. While his season statistics might not indicate championship material, Ryan Blaney is in a great position to have Team Penske win back-to-back championships.
William Byron
Can William Byron sweep the Phoenix races? No driver has swept both Phoenix races since Kevin Harvick in 2014. On paper, Byron has been the best driver in the Cup Series. He leads the Cup Series in wins, Top-5s, Top-10s, and average finish. While his Martinsville run could be seen as worrisome, it is the only blip on his playoff run this season. Hendrick Motorsports have won two of the past three championships. Byron has brought speed all season, but sometimes he fades during a race. Can William Byron maintain race winning speed and become the third first time champ for Hendrick in four seasons?
Kyle Larson
The only former champion out of the four is Kyle Larson. At the old age of 31, he is the veteran of the Championship Four. While William Byron has been the most consistent driver this season, no one has led as many laps of Kyle Larson. Larson is a bit of a boom or bust driver this season. He has 4 wins and over 1,100 laps led, but has also collected 8 DNFs. While Larson and the 5 team have been fast all season, trouble seems to find him. Homestead is a perfect example. For many, Larson will be their pick to win it all. If he can avoid a costly mistake, then Kyle Larson could become a two time Cup Series champion.
