One of the biggest stories of NASCAR’s 2023 season was that Hailie Deegan would be moving up to the Xfinity series for the 2024 season. On October 5th, it was announced that Deegan would be joining AM Racing. Many Deegan fans were thrilled with this announcement. Personally, I felt that she was ready for her shot in Xfinity. In this article, I look at the expectations for Hailie Deegan in her first Xfinity season.
Deegan is driving the #15 Ford Mustang for AM Racing in the 2024 Xfinity season. She has one Xfinity race in her career from which we can extrapolate expectations. Deegan performed quite well in her 2022 Xfinity series debut at Las Vegas. Her 13th place lead lap finish was good enough even to spark some Stewart-Haas rumors for the 2023 Xfinity series.
Those rumors didn’t pan out. Hailie Deegan would end up signing with ThorSport Racing for the 2023 Craftsman Truck series season. We don’t have a lot of data to go on when it comes to Hailie Deegan in the Xfinity series. One race is too small of a sample size. Ergo, the first place we should look would be at AM Racing’s 2023 season with Brett Moffitt. This should give us a reasonable set of expectations for Hailie Deegan’s rookie season in Xfinity.
AM Racing’s 2023 Xfinity Results
First, I’d like to point out that readers can check out a full review of AM Racing’s 2023 Xfinity season by clicking here. Second, readers can check out a statistical breakdown of AM Racing’s 2023 Xfinity series by clicking here. Furthermore, those are both articles from Pit Pass Network (with Griffin Fuller writing the review and Daniel Smith providing the statistical breakdown), so you know they are both of high quality.
In 2023, Moffitt drove the #25 Ford Mustang for AM Racing in the Xfinity series. Simply put, Moffitt had an average year. Considering that this was AM Racing’s first season running Xfinity, that is definitely something to build upon. Moffitt ended up with a total of 9 top ten finishes. One of these was a top finish at Chicago. Finally, Moffitt ended up finishing 15th in the driver standings.
While not a top tier team, it is likely that AM Racing will improve its Xfinity series performance in 2024. This was their first season, after all. Furthermore, AM Racing plans on having two full time cars for the 2024 Xfinity season. Expansion can often make for a tough year for a team. Still, Cole Custer proved me wrong by winning the Xfinity championship in his first season back in Xfinity in the Stewart-Haas Racing #00. Overall, I believe having two full time teams will be of great benefit for AM Racing, as well as for rookie Hailie Deegan.
Setting Reasonable Expectations for Hailie Deegan
Hailie Deegan’s rookie season in Xfinity will also be AM Racing’s sophomore season. While we can expect an improvement in Brett Moffitt’s performance (were he to return), it would be unfair to expect any rookie to perform at the same level. While Deegan has performed well in cars (as opposed to trucks), we don’t have a lot of relevant data from which to set expectations.
Personally, I am not convinced that Xfinity represents a tier above the truck series. I think seeing other top truck series drivers, skipping the Xfinity series backs up my position. For me, Xfinity and Trucks are the second tier of NASCAR’s national series. Trucks and Xfinity are just too different to assume that if a driver performs well in trucks they’ll perform well in Xfinity. If a driver performs very well in either series, I believe they have earned a shot at the cup series. On the other hand, if they perform poorly in one or the other, I think it’s still worth seeing how they perform in the other second tier series.
In the era of the Buschwackers (cup drivers racing for points in Xfinity as well), I think a better case could have been made for Xfinity being a step above trucks. Furthermore, I think the next-gen car has further disrupted this way of viewing the three national series. In some aspects, one could argue that truck series performance might be a better indicator of future cup success than Xfinity. While the Xfinity drivers no longer have to compete against cup series regulars for championships, the next gen car has increased the prevalence of aggressive racing, often seen in trucks.
What does a Successful 2024 Xfinity Rookie Season Look Like for Deegan?
Ultimately, I believe that if Hailie Deegan gets anywhere close to Brett Moffitt’s 2023 season statistics, that will be a successful rookie season. While I don’t think her truck series results play much of a role in how she will perform in Xfinity, I do think there is a positive from her truck series struggles. Simply put, the expectations Deegan will face in her rookie Xfinity season have been lowered due to her truck series performance.
Going from a top tier truck series team like ThorSport to a second tier Xfinity series team like AM Racing is a good move. Deegan has a lot of fans and also a lot of pressure. When she signed with ThorSport for the 2023 season, I thought there would be a huge increase in the quality of her performance. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
For Hailie Deegan to have a successful rookie year in Xfinity, she must finish races. Minimizing DNFs is crucial. She doesn’t need to go out and win races in her first season. While this would be great, it isn’t necessary for a successful rookie year. If Deegan can manage to put together a season full of races that look like her 2022 series debut, that will be what gives her a successful rookie season.
