This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Daytona 500. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Daytona (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last race projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 4th
Last race winner: Ross Chastain
Projected Finish: 12th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Brad Keselowski 15th, Corey LaJoie 31st)
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-Only 2 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the Top 8 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 8
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Kyle Busch
Disappointment: Austin Dillon
Ryan Blaney has one win at Daytona, but it wasn’t in the 500. However, the numbers say this is his year to get it done. Photo by Logan Riely — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 30th -29 |
| 2. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -16 |
| 3. | 22 | Joey Logano | 32nd -29 |
| 4. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 33rd -29 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 14th -9 |
| 6. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 22nd -16 |
| 7. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 12th -5 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 15th -7 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 19th -9 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 2nd +9 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +10 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 34th -20 |
| 15. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 31st -16 |
| 16. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 4th +12 |
| 17. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 6th +11 |
| 18. | 43 | Erik Jones | 8th +10 |
| 19. | 60 | David Ragan | 20th -1 |
| 20. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 10th +11 |
| 22. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 35th -12 |
| 24. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 16th +8 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 42 | John H. Nemechek | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 15 | Riley Herbst | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 9th +19 |
| 29. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 11th +18 |
| 30. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 23rd +7 |
| 31. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 28th +3 |
| 32. | 62 | Anthony Alfredo | 27th +5 |
| 33. | 36 | Kaz Grala | 38th -5 |
| 34. | 1 | Ross Chstain | 21st +13 |
| 35. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 40th -5 |
| 36. | 51 | Justin Haley | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 17th +20 |
| 38. | 71 | Zane Smith | 13th +25 |
| 39. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 37th +2 |
| 40. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 39th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.