2024 NASCAR Bold Predictions

The Clash has come and gone. Football had its weekend. Now, NASCAR can take center stage in the sports world. As the teams are bringing their equipment to Daytona, it is time to ponder what could happen this season. For those hoping for a winless Denny Hamlin season, technically that dream is ruined via his win in LA. Everyone has predictions ready, from each series champion to surprise and disappointing teams. The Pit Pass Network crew have made their 2024 and Daytona predictions already. For this article though, all the predictions will be of the bold variety. To clarify, a bold prediction is one that has low odds of happening, but is still feasible. These are the 2024 NASCAR bold predictions.

Before getting into this year’s bold predictions, time to review the bold predictions from last season:

• Carson Hocevar will lead the Craftsman Truck Series in wins: Correct (tied for first with 4)
• Toyota goes winless in Trucks: Incorrect (Toyota won 3 times, all with Corey Heim)
• Longshot driver to make Xfinity’s Championship Four (Kaz Grala): Incorrect (unless you count Sam Mayer as a “longshot”)
• AJ Allmendinger makes Round of 8: Incorrect (but he did win the ROVAL)
• Both RFK entries advance to the Round of 12: Correct (Keselowski made Round of 12, Buescher advanced to Round of 8)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (Cup) only wins with Christopher Bell: Incorrect (Hamlin and Truex Jr combined for 6 wins)
• PROJECT91 will win a race: Correct (Shane van Gisbergen at Chicago)
• Rick Ware sells both charters: Incorrect (NASCAR did not confiscate a charter from Rick Ware)

Now, onto this year’s bold predictions.

Craftsman Truck Series Bold Predictions

Ty Dillon Wins 4 Races

If you read the 2024 PPN Preseason Predictions, you might have read a tamer version of this prediction. However in this article, the prediction is getting double downed. Ty Dillon will be running the fulltime Craftsman Truck Series schedule in the 25 Rackley WAR truck. Heading into the season, that team has one win to its name. Meanwhile, Ty Dillon has accumulated 3 Truck Series wins. However, Dillon’s experience in the Cup Series will help guide the 25 truck to victory lane multiple times. Will the equipment be good enough to support this? Maybe; the team did make the playoffs last year.

Corey Heim Wins the Championship with 1 Win

Corey Heim was the breakout star from the Truck Series last year. The Toyota driver won 3 times and the regular season championship. If not for Carson Hocevar (and then his own actions), Heim could have won the championship as well. However, it was not meant to be. Somewhat surprisingly, Heim is returning to the series to chase after the title once again. While the belief is that he will win it this year, Heim will do so with only a single win. Heim will likely lead the field in average finish, but victory lane will evade the young driver for most of 2024.

Xfinity Series Bold Predictions

AJ Allmendinger & Shane van Gisbergen Combine for 1 Road Course Win

Heading into the season, many are expecting the Kaulig tandem of AJ Allmendinger and Shane van Gisbergen to dominate the road courses. For the Xfinity Series, there are 6 road courses on the schedule. While many will expect Allmendinger and Gisbergen to win a significant portion of those, this writer’s expectation is only 1 win between them. In regards to Gisbergen, he will be learning a new car that drives differently compared to the NextGen. For both of them, the road course abilities of their competitors are at high levels. Cole Custer, Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, and Parker Kligerman are a selection of worthy competitors. If not for the ROVAL, then this prediction would likely be no wins for the pair.

No Fulltime Cup Driver Wins a Race

While “Busch-whacking” has gone down due to NASCAR’s rules, the Cup Series drivers still poke down to the Xfinity Series to snipe wins away from regulars. Last year, 6 races (by 5 different drivers) were won by fulltime Cup regulars. Heading into the season, John Hunter Nemechek and Daniel Suarez have been announced for races (including Daytona). Joe Gibbs Racing will likely let Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin have a start if they desire. Others, such as Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch, will likely have a start or two. Despite that talent coming down, none of them will end up winners. This prediction could go sideways immediately, but the Xfinity Series regulars is a stacked roster that can compete with the guest Cup drivers. 

Parker Kligerman Breaks Out

Parker Kligerman is due for a win. He came close to tasting victory on numerous occasions last year. However, the win would always escape his grasp. In 2024, that will not be the case. Both Kligerman and Big Machine Racing have demonstrated the talent/speed to compete with the top teams. Especially on the road courses and superspeedways, Kligerman is a threat to win. Kligerman will pick up multiple wins this season, leading to a Round of 8 appearance.

Cup Series Bold Predictions

Brad Keselowski Wins 3+ Races

RFK Racing established themselves as a top team in 2023. Both drivers finished inside the Top-10 in points while Chris Buesecher won 3 races. However, Brad Keselowski is still looking for his first win in 98 races and under his own Cup team. Arguably, Keselowski was the stronger driver between the RFK duo. This season, Keselowski will return to the conversation about who is a top Cup driver. Starting with hoisting his first Harley J Earl trophy, Keselowski will win at least 3 races. Much like Buescher in 2023, the wins will be spread across different types of tracks. All of this will lead Keselowski to his first Championship Four appearance since 2020.

Stewart-Haas Returns to Form

After Jeff Gluck picked Stewart-Haas Racing to be this year’s disappointment, this prediction might not be so bold anymore. Still, the trajectory that SHR has been on since Kevin Harvick missed the Championship Four in 2020 has been a steady decline. Over the past two seasons, Harvick had been the only consistent positive for the team. Now that he has left for the FOX booth, what chance does SHR have to be competitive? Well, Rodney Childers is still there for Josh Berry. Chase Briscoe made the Round of 8 in 2022. Ryan Preece could easily win Martinsville or New Hampshire. Noah Gragson surely did not simply forget how to drive. Will they return to being the top Ford team? No, but multiple wins with a majority of their drivers making the playoffs is where this prediction lies. 

Part-Time Drivers Win Multiple Races

Here is where AJ Allmendinger and Shane van Gisbergen will flex their road course might. While Gisbergen’s Chicago win might have been aided by the rain, there is little reason to believe that he will fail to back up his performance this season. If Allmendinger runs the ROVAL for Kaulig, then that is another potential win. Away from the road course aces, RFK’s Stage 60 could be an intriguing possibility depending on where it runs (and who is driving). If David Ragan makes the Daytona 500, he is a good longshot pick.

4 Drivers from Hendrick, Penske, and Joe Gibbs Miss the Playoffs Again

Last year, the three top teams in NASCAR combined to have 4 of their drivers miss the playoffs. Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman missed mostly due to injuries. Ty Gibbs missed, but that was expected from the rookie last year. Austin Cindric took a step back in his progression and missed the playoffs after making it his rookie year. Heading into this year, many would expect that number to reduce to 1. However, the same number will miss the playoffs again from these teams. To add to this prediction, Ty Gibbs will not be one of the four. To put names with the prediction: Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr, Alex Bowman, and Austin Cindric will be the ones to miss the playoffs.