Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch: Daytona 500

No longer are fans counting the Days to Daytona. NASCAR Cup Series action officially kicks off this week with the Daytona 500. The NASCAR season begins with the biggest race of the year. Qualifying starts the week on Wednesday, followed by the Bluegreen Vacations Duels on Thursday night. After that, the Great American Race is set for Sunday afternoon. A field of 42 drivers will attempt to hoist the Harley J Earl trophy. Although last year looked to be a stacked field, 2024 might offer a better field. Each of the 40 competitors who will qualify for Sunday will have a chance to win the Daytona 500. Notable names are entering as open cars, such as Jimmie Johnson and David Ragan. Two manufacturers will be testing out their new bodies on the high banks of Daytona. When it comes to only picking 5 Drivers to Watch for the Daytona 500, it is a difficult decision.

Who should you keep an eye on throughout Daytona Speedweeks? The past three Daytona 500s have seen an upset winner. Could 2024 follow the pattern or will a betting favorite break the trend? Outside of who will win, what storylines are there to follow this week? Continue reading below to see the five featured drivers.

If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles. 

Brad Keselowski

As Brad Keselowski said earlier, the winner of the Daytona 500 feels chosen rather than simply a driver winning. Keselowski has come close numerous times to winning the Daytona 500. Since buying into RFK Racing, Keselowski has led the most laps in each Daytona 500. In his final 500 with Team Penske, Keselowski was working on a last lap pass for the lead entering Turn 3. Unfortunately, Joey Logano threw a late block and Keselowksi did not finish the race. Something always seems to spoil Keselowski’s chances at the Harley J Earl trophy.

For the driver who has led a total of 109 laps over the past two Daytona 500s, it feels inevitable for Keselowski to win one. While other notable drivers have failed to win the Great American Race, Keselowski feels different. He is one of the few drivers who demonstrates that there is a talent for superspeedway racing. Sometimes Keselowski is overaggressive with his pushes, but usually it works out. On top of the talent, Keselowski surely built up some good will from last year’s Coke Zero 400. Rather than go for the win, Keselowski pushed his teammate to victory while playing defense. In a just racing world, Keselowski is rewarded for that this spring. If Keselowski pulls out the win, it will be the first thing off of his goals for 2024. 

Kyle Busch

Technically, Kyle Busch was leading the Daytona 500 on Lap 200 last year. Unfortunately for the RCR driver, the race was under caution and heading into overtime at the time. Busch has accomplished almost everything there is to do in NASCAR. However, the Daytona 500 is one of the few achievements that has evaded him thus far. Busch has picked up a win at Daytona during the summer race back in 2008. In the two lower series, Busch has also picked up a win per series at the historic track.

Despite his clear disdain for superspeedway racing, Busch flashed great skill last year at Daytona and Talladega. Busch was able to drive through the field multiple times in both Daytona races. During the summer race, Busch led the third line during the exciting Stage 2. While Busch has always been solid in the draft, he stepped up his game with his new team. The tandem of Busch and Austin Dillon were a formidable duo in the closing laps of the Daytona 500. If they did what Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski did in the summer race, it is likely Busch would have held on to win the Daytona 500. Expecting the same level of speed for this year’s race, Busch should be a favorite for the event. Even if he is in the back of the field, the Las Vegas native demonstrated the ability to drive forward in minimal laps. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Denny Hamlin was the last driver to pull off the back-to-back Daytona 500 wins in 2019 and 2020. Ricky Stenhouse Jr will look to become the fifth driver to accomplish the feat. Unlike the other “surprise” winners in recent years, Stenhouse’s wheelhouse is the superspeedways. Before last year’s win, Stenhouse had found victory lane at Daytona once before (2017). While his knack for starting/getting into wrecks on the superspeedways earned him the name “Wrecky Spinhouse”, the JTG driver clearly feels comfortable in the draft. 

Is there a reasonable chance that Ricky Stenhouse Jr can pull out the win? Outside of the “anyone can win” nature of superspeedway racing, Stenhouse has a great chance to win. While Chevy did not update their body in the offseason, that could be an advantage. With practically no on-track testing, Ford and Toyota might have a learning curve to start the season. Plus, every Chevy seems to bring great speed to Daytona. Stenhouse has done a better job at keeping his nose clean at Daytona too. The odds of him surviving to the end are improved now compared to his Roush tenure. If he can be there at the end of the race, Ricky Stenhouse Jr is one to watch in the closing laps of the Daytona 500.

John Hunter Nemechek

In the NextGen era, a Toyota has yet to win a race on a superspeedway. Currently, the manufacturer is 0-for-12. Ford and Chevy have split the wins between them (8 Chevy, 4 Ford). The last Toyota superspeedway win was Bubba Wallace’s 2021 win at Talladega. Something about the original Toyota NextGen cars did not bode well for the superspeedways. With the new Toyota body, the car should draft and bump better on the superspeedways. If Toyota nailed the design switch, then fans might see more competitive Toyotas in the field.

One of those Toyotas could be John Hunter Nemechek. While his Toyota teammates Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones are the known superspeedway talents, Nemechek demonstrated solid skills in the Xfinity Series. Nemechek usually found himself toward the front of a superspeedway race during the closing laps, including last year’s Daytona opener. With this new car, there is a potential for a Toyota to find victory lane again. Hamlin is surely the favorite there, but Nemechek will be an interesting watch. A rookie won the Daytona 500 in 2022. Why not John Hunter Nemechek in 2024?

Jimmie Johnson

Barring any mechanical issues or a wreck from qualifying through the duels, Jimmie Johnson should be a lock for the Daytona 500. If this jinxed him, apologies. Under the assumption he does qualify for the Great American Race, Johnson will be making history as the first Hall of Famer to race in a Cup Series event. For the second straight year, Johnson will be running the 84 car in Daytona. The primary goal for Johnson and the team will be to finish the race. In all 3 of his starts last year, Johnson failed to finish any of the races. During the Daytona 500, Johnson got caught up in an early caution that took him out.

When discussing expectations for Johnson, it is difficult to envision a strong run for the 7-time champion. There seems to be a steep learning curve with the NextGen car and Johnson has lost his luster. However, Daytona would be the track for Johnson to rediscover his groove. The man has won 3 races at the track, including 2 Daytona 500s. While you should not expect him to win, it would be great to see some of that Johnson magic at Daytona. Hopefully, he can at least finish the race. 

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