For some, the real NASCAR season begins this weekend. After back-to-back superspeedways, the Cup Series goes for a quick western trip. First stop, Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The real strength for the NextGen car has been its performance on the intermediates. In 4 races, Las Vegas has provided quality racing in the NextGen era. There is little to believe that this year will be any different. Since this will be the first non-superspeedway race, this will be the first true test of each teams’ equipment. How will the new bodies for Ford and Toyota run on an intermediate? Despite winning the first 2 races, will Chevy be at a disadvantage for the “real” tracks? With an eye on the entire field, who will be the drivers to watch in the Pennzoil 400?
In the NextGen era, the Toyotas and Chevys have been stronger at Las Vegas compared to the Fords. However, Ford’s new Dark Horse Mustang was designed to help cut their deficit. Clearly, the aerodynamics of the body benefitted qualifying on the superspeedways. Will that translate over to the intermediates where the manufacturer needed the most improvement? Meanwhile, Toyota sounds confident about their new design as well. Surely, Toyota managed to avoid ruining their strength with the new body. Chevy might not have updated their body, but they swept the Las Vegas races last year. The 2024 season will start to have a clearer picture after Sunday’s race. Who should you be watching in the Pennzoil 400? Here are the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Kyle Larson
For Kyle Larson fans, Las Vegas Motor Speedway will be a welcome sight. Larson survived Daytona with an 11th place finish while wrecking out at Atlanta. Now, Larson and the 5 team can hit the schedule running at a couple of tracks that suit them well. Larson won the playoff race at Las Vegas last year, clinching his spot into the Championship Four. In the spring, Larson was in position to win before a late caution mixed the front running order up. Based on 2023’s success, Larson should be confident heading into the Pennzoil 400.
Between the two races last year, Kyle Larson led a total of 196 laps. During the NextGen era, Larson has finished in the Top-2 3 of 4 races. The only time Larson did not finish in the Top-2 was when Bubba Wallace intentional wrecked him early in the fall of 2022. Larson’s dominance of Las Vegas started when he first got to Hendrick Motorsports. Outside of intentionally being wrecked, little has slowed Larson down at the track. Unless the existing Chevy body turns into a big detriment compared to Ford and Toyota, there is no reason to think Larson will not be a contender this weekend.
Bubba Wallace
The only driver to have 2 Top-10s on the season is Bubba Wallace. Wallace enters Las Vegas on a 3-race Top-10 streak that dates back to Phoenix last year. With Las Vegas on deck, there is a good chance that the streak can extend to 4 races. In the limited NextGen starts, Toyota has run well at 1.5 mile tracks. While Kansas is considered their best track, the manufacturer has been strong at Las Vegas as well. In last year’s Pennzoil 400, Wallace finished in the Top-5. Based on the recent history, Wallace should be in line for another solid run.
As mentioned in the intro, a big question heading into this weekend is how well will the Toyotas will run with the new body. Surely, the manufacturer did not make drastic changes that would hurt their intermediate program. However, every potential change does have a risk to the benefit. While nothing will be known until the weekend is over, it should be a safe bet that Toyota will run well again. With that assumption, Bubba Wallace would be a great driver to put in your fantasy lineup. Another strong run this early in 2024 could set the 23 team up for a special season.
Austin Cindric
Entering this weekend, the top Team Penske (and Ford) driver in the points after 2 races is Austin Cindric. In a bit of a “prove it” season, Cindric has started off with strong runs at Daytona and Atlanta. If not for Corey LaJoie, there is a chance that Cindric would be sitting here a 2-time Daytona 500 winner. At Atlanta, Cindric was Mr. Excitement, making 4-wide passes and brining the field to the brink of wrecking. Now, Cindric sits third in points as he heads to one of the few intermediates that bodes well for him.
Last season, Cindric posted a Top-10 in the Pennzoil 400. While the Fords may struggle at Las Vegas, Team Penske usually brings solid speed. In qualifying, Cindric has flexed that Penske power. In his 4 starts, the 2 driver has averaged a starting position of 8.3. Off the back of his strong start to 2024, Austin Cindric will look to continue that positive momentum. Plus, Las Vegas will represent the true measuring stick for Cindric this season. A poor run might imply that superspeedways (and road courses) represent his only chances at relevancy.
Christopher Bell
Last fall, Christopher Bell was kicking himself for not being able to pass Kyle Larson in the closing laps at Las Vegas. It was an entertaining watch to see Bell slowly track down Larson as the laps dwindled down. If the race was an extra 2 laps, Bell surely would have left as the victor. Bell is still chasing his first Cup win at Las Vegas. Despite 2 poles at the track, Bell has yet to nab that win. However, his runs with Joe Gibbs Racing have been solid (when he avoids trouble). In 6 starts in the 20 car, Bell has 2 Top-5s and 4 Top-10s.
Christopher Bell is riding a Las Vegas hot streak as well. Those 2 Top-5s were from last year’s Vegas races. Also, Bell will be running the Craftsman Truck Series race Friday night. Competing against Kyle Busch (and the Truck Series regulars) will be great track time for the weekend. While pulling double duty does not always equal great results, Bell will surely thrive with the challenge this weekend. If you are going to bet against Hendrick Motorsports this weekend, Christopher Bell would be the one to keep an eye on to upset the Chevy applecart.
Derek Kraus
Sunday will mark the Cup Series debut for Derek Kraus. Driving in Kaulig Racing’s 16 car, Kraus will look to impress during his initial 2-race stint with the team. Despite this being his Cup debut, this will not be Kraus’s first time behind the wheel of the 16 car. Back at Richmond last year, Kraus practiced and qualified AJ Allmendinger’s car while the road course ringer ran Road America in the Xfinity Series. In that unique situation, Kraus qualified the car last out of 36 drivers.
What should you expect from Derek Kraus this weekend? Not much honestly. Las Vegas was never too kind to Kraus in the Craftsman Truck Series. In 6 starts, Kraus failed to net a single Top-10 despite running in quality equipment. His limited Xfinity starts for Kaulig Racing only saw a single Top-10 on an intermediate track. To Kraus’s advantage, that was at Kansas (which races similarly to Las Vegas). However, the Kaulig Cup equipment still seems to be a step behind their counterparts. While it is a nice story heading into the weekend, do not expect much from Derek Kraus in the Pennzoil 400.
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