After the tire spectacle on the high banks of Bristol, the NASCAR Cup Series schedule shifts to the Lone Star state for the first road course action of the season. Circuit of the Americas (COTA) will host NASCAR for the fourth time this weekend. Thus far, the F1 built road course has given fans a mixed bag of results. Year one was spoiled by rain, year two introduced the NASCAR world to Ross Chastain’s aggression, and last year turned into a clown show due to Turn 1. What could be in the cards this weekend for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix? This weekend will see the Cup Series’ largest field since the Daytona 500 as well. With 39 entries in the field, who should be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for COTA?
Entering this weekend, Ford is still shutout from the winner’s circle across the three series. Chevy and Toyota have been occupying victory lane each race thus far. However, Ford has some strong contenders in the garage for a road course win. At the same time, Chevy is bringing in a couple of road course ringers to lead their charge along with the usual suspects. Toyota will boast a strong lineup of Cup drivers who can wheel well going left and right. Notable additions to the field also include the returning Kamui Kobayashi and Timmy Hill. In the first road course race of the season, COTA could serve up some solid action. However, hope that there are no late race cautions to ruin the whole experience.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Shane van Gisbergen
For the first time since the Indy road course, Shane van Gisbergen is returning to run a Cup Series race. As part of his developmental schedule for 2024, Gisbergen will jump into the 16 Kaulig car to trophy hunt at COTA. In his two Cup starts, Gisbergen has a win and a tenth place finish. So far in his Xfinity Series career, SVG has been solid. Outside of a mechanical failure at Las Vegas, the New Zealander’s worst finish is 12th in the season opener at Daytona. Now, Shane van Gisbergen gets to pull double duty on a track that he should feel more comfortable driving on.
Should Shane van Gisbergen be the favorite for Sunday’s race? An argument could be made for it. Despite Kaulig’s Cup equipment seeming second rate, driver skill on a road course helps even that out. Obviously, Gisbergen has picked up a win in the NextGen car. Plus, COTA being a more technical road course helps his odds. However, there are too many other strong contenders to place SVG as the favorite. Does he have a shot at winning the race? Absolutely, which makes him a key driver to watch in the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA.
Kaz Grala
Off the back of an impressive run at Bristol, Kaz Grala might continue to turn heads on the road course. Remember, Grala’s Cup debut came in 2020 on the Daytona road course where he finished seventh. Grala is a solid road racer, which will bode well for Rick Ware Racing to continue their momentum. In 19 Xfinity Series starts on road courses, Grala has picked up 4 Top-5s and 8 Top-10s. While Rick Ware Racing equipment is subpar, previous road course ringers have been able to overperform in those cars.
It is highly unlikely that Kaz Grala will compete for the win on Sunday. Although there is a chance he can bring the most out of the Rick Ware equipment, race winning speed seems infeasible. However, a Top-10 might not be out of the question. The Rick Ware cars were able to run within the Top-10 at Bristol. While tire management likely played a factor, it demonstrated improved performance when driver skill mattered. A road course should play out (somewhat) similarly. Keep an eye on Grala in the 15 car this weekend to potentially run surprisingly well.
Tyler Reddick
2024 has been a season of hot and cold for Tyler Reddick. At Daytona, Reddick won his duel race to then DNF in the 500. He followed that up with a 30th place finish at Atlanta. Reddick managed to bounce back with a strong second at Las Vegas, being the only driver to give Kyle Larson any pressure. During the first half of Phoenix, Reddick was the car to beat. Then Bristol was another 30th result. Consistency killed the 45 team last year and it seems to be a continued theme for this season. COTA coming up this weekend might be exactly what this team needs.
Last year, Tyler Reddick dominated COTA by leading the most laps, winning a stage, and ultimately the race. During the NextGen era, Reddick is establishing himself as arguably the best road racer in the Cup Series. If NASCAR did not change the stage caution rules for the ROVAL, then Reddick likely would have collected 2 road course wins in 2023. There is little reason to believe that Reddick cannot defend his race win this weekend. Toyotas have looked strong the past couple of weeks. While he will have fierce competition, Tyler Reddick should be at the top of the list of potential race winners.
AJ Allmendinger
Kaulig Racing will enter their third entry in the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix with AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel. Two road course aces for Kaulig will chase after the coveted race win. Allmendinger has proven to be unlucky in the NextGen car at COTA. After finishing Top-5 in the debut race, Allmendinger has failed to see a result inside the Top-30 at the Texas road course. However, that was not chalked up to a poor run from Allmendinger. In 2022, Allmendinger was battling Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman for the win on the final lap. Chastain sent Allmendinger into the gravel, where he got stuck. Last year, the Kaulig driver got caught up in a wreck late in the race.
Surely, Kaulig Racing is going to throw everything they can behind Allmendinger (and SVG) for COTA. Entering a non-chartered entry is no small investment. Based on their season so far, the team has to figure this will be one of their best chances to nab a win. Although Allmendinger did not look as strong as many expected on the road courses in 2023, the ROVAL win should be a boost to the confidence for COTA. Plus, the 13 team has no need or worry about stage points. The strategy will be straight forward from the start: win the race.
Martin Truex Jr
Heading into COTA, Martin Truex Jr is tied for the points lead with Kyle Larson. In addition to a share of the points lead, Truex enters COTA with the best average finish in the Cup Series. His worst finish on the season is fifteenth in the Daytona 500. Away from the superspeedways, the 19 car has seldom seen the outside of the Top-10. The positive results must help steady any uneasy feeling from how poorly the playoff run was for Truex. The only thing missing now is a race win, which could come at COTA.
Martin Truex Jr has won 5 road course races in his career, including Sonoma last year. That number is about a tenth of all of his road course starts. However, COTA has not been one of his better road courses over the past three seasons. In those starts, Truex only has one Top-10. Not only have the results been mediocre, Truex has not qualified well along with only leading 3 laps. Truex is too good of a road course driver to think that this trend will continue. Based on his history, expect a surge in performance from Martin Truex Jr this weekend.
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