It’s Bristol baby! This time without the dirt. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for the first of two traditional races on the banked, half-mile oval this season. For many fans, this change to the schedule is met with great rejoice. While the Bristol dirt experiment was certainly a choice, it deprived the NASCAR Cup schedule of a fan favorite short track early in the season. However, the NextGen car has a bitter rivalry with short tracks. Maybe the dirt would be a better race. Probably not though, so hooray, spring Bristol is back on concrete. After a mixed reaction to the Phoenix race, NASCAR will hope the Cup drivers can put on a show this weekend. In the Food City 500, who will be the drivers to watch?
Despite the NextGen’s issues on the short tracks, the return of the traditional spring Bristol date should help hype up the weekend. Bristol Motor Speedway went with a throwback logo for the event, which brings in nostalgic feelings about the Last Great Coliseum. With those nostalgic feelings, can fans get some rough, elbows-out type racing? Maybe; the NextGen car has fell short of the high expectations for Bristol racing. However, there seems to be more driver frustration bubbling under the surface this season. Will that spill out during the first true short track of the season? Which rivalries will spark or continue this weekend? Most importantly, who are the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch this weekend?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Denny Hamlin
Last time the Cup Series raced at Bristol, Denny Hamlin beat your favorite driver. Will he do it again? More importantly if he does, will another cucumber be thrown onto the track? Hamlin’s 2024 has showcased the usually Joe Gibbs Racing speed without the expected results. In each race this year, Hamlin has been in a top car. However, he only has a single Top-10 thus far. Phoenix saw Hamlin take part in history, as he led 50+ laps along with his each of his JGR teammates. Unfortunately, a spin during the last stage caught him in the mid-pack where he was unable to move forward.
Onto the Food City 500, where Denny Hamlin should be one of the favorites. Other than Martin Truex Jr, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars looked strong last fall. The big question is whether the new Toyota body potentially hurt that performance. While Phoenix was a statement race for the manufacturer, Las Vegas was a bit of a step back. Could Bristol see the same marginal diminishment in performance? Hamlin will be the measuring stick for that analysis. If he is running up front, then Toyota hit on the body for short tracks. If his peak is the latter half of the Top-10, maybe Toyota focused too much on Phoenix in their new design.
Carson Hocevar
So far, the Rookie of the Year battle is shaping up to be a landslide. Carson Hocevar has a Top-20 in three of four starts this season. Meanwhile, Josh Berry and Zane Smith have combined for two. Hocevar has been impressing, especially the past two weekends. At Las Vegas, Hocevar lurked around the Top-10 most of the day. If not for a flat tire during the final stage, Hocevar might have nabbed his first Top-10. At Phoenix, a 10th place qualifying effort preluded a battle for his second straight 15th. Continuing from his impressive starts in the 42 last year, Hocevar has the 77 running better than anyone thought heading into the season.
Not only is Carson Hocevar one to watch due to his strong start to 2024, but the rookie already has a reputation for getting under his competitors’ skin. What better place to watch that (potentially) unfold than Bristol? Especially considering that Hocevar is running in the top half of the field, the potential for a rivalry with a notable driver is there. After some fender rubbing, Hocever could accomplish two things are once. First, solidify another good finish at Bristol (11th last fall). Secondly, become a recognizable name with casual fans after aggravating another driver.
Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott fans must be waiting for their driver to snap out of this funk. So far in 2024, Elliott has failed to finish inside the Top-10. Phoenix looked to be the first, however, Elliott became stuck in the mid-pack after the field flipped during the final stage. Prior to that, Elliott was running Top-5 for the majority of the race. However, Elliott still feels a step behind his two teammates. Outside of the lack of Top-10s, it has been a while since Elliott has felt like a race-winning threat. Other than the Indy road course last year, it is difficult to remember a race where the 9 car felt as if it could win a race.
With that in mind, Bristol might be the perfect place for Chase Elliott to build momentum. In the two NextGen races at Bristol, Elliott has finished 2nd and 7th. However, he has failed to lead a single lap in either race. Back in 2022, Elliott was chasing down Chris Buescher in the final laps. Had the race been 505 laps instead of 500, Elliott likely would have made the pass to win. Last year, Elliott ran 80% of the race inside the Top-15. At this point in the season, a race where Elliott runs and finishes in the Top-10 would be a welcome sign. Maybe the nostalgia of the Food City 500 will see the return of pre-injury Chase Elliott.
Brad Keselowski
At 102 races (and counting), Brad Keselowski’s winless streak will continue to be a topic of discussion until the RKF Racing co-owner finds victory lane. While Keselowski is not worried about it, it is is notable that it has been 2021 since the Michigan native has gone to victory lane. Keselowski’s last non-superspeedway win goes back to 2020 when he won at New Hampshire. That is a long stretch of races to go without a “traditional track” win. The issue has not been a lack of speed though, evident by Keselowski’s 8th place points finish and numerous Top-5s. Winning a race is tricky and the 6 team has not put it together yet.
Bristol could be home to where Keselowski’s streak dies. During the two NextGen races, RFK Racing has been one of the strongest teams at the short track. Chris Buescher won in 2022 and had a Top-5 last year. Keselowski was likely on a path to win in 2022 before a blown tire ruined his race. Last year, Keselowski managed a Top-10. After a Top-5 at Phoenix, Keselowski and the 6 team are building momentum. An early win for the team would get the proverbial monkey off the back and could setup Keselowski for a breakthrough season. Also, two of Keselowski’s three Bristol wins have come it the spring race as well.
Michael McDowell
With how consistent Michael McDowell has been running over the past couple of seasons, is he truly an underdog pick anymore? Off the back of a career best finish at Phoenix (8th), McDowell heads to one of his strongest non-road course tracks. Since 2020, McDowell has finished inside the Top-15 in all but one Bristol race. Last fall was his best race at the track, where McDowell battled for a Top-5 all race long. Although McDowell flashed quality dirt racing skill, he should be excited for the dirt to be gone.
Since aligning with Team Penske and being bumped to a Tier 1 Ford team, Front Row has been noticeably better thus far in 2024. Sure, the superspeedways were always a strength for the team. However, McDowell and teammate Todd Gilliland have put together impressive runs. McDowell qualified in the Top-10 at Phoenix, which would not have been expected from the team last year. The improved performance gives McDowell and the 34 a better chance to accomplish their failed goal from last year: advance to the Round of 12. Maybe a win this weekend is a bit of a stretch, but do not be surprised to see the 34 running inside the Top-5 in the Food City 500.
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