After a brief hiatus to go road course racing, the NASCAR Cup Series returns east to finish their 3 race short track run. Bristol saw a tire management race, which leads to the former-short track king of tire falloff. Richmond Raceway has been a bit of the ugly duckling of the short track circuit as of late. However, tire falloff has been the name of the game of the recent races (both previous car and NextGen). Strategy reigns supreme. The crew chiefs will likely be the most significant factors this week, as they decide whether to split stages in half or thirds. While the new short track package failed to liven up Phoenix, maybe the tire falloff of Richmond can help boost the excitement. For this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch, who should you keep an eye on in the Toyota Owners 400?
Currently, the season looks to be down to which of Joe Gibbs Racing or Hendrick Motorsports drivers will reign supreme. The two teams have won all but one race this season. For the third straight season, William Byron is the first multi-time winner. His dominant performance at COTA seems to indicate that fans are in for another 2023-esque season out of the Hendrick driver. What about Ford though? This is the second straight season that the manufacturer has started out slowly. However, the last trip to Richmond saw a Ford in victory lane. Could this weekend see Ford put one of their Dark Mustangs in victory lane? All of these storylines will be something to follow along with the 5 Drivers to Watch below.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Alex Bowman
In recent weeks, Alex Bowman has been rounding back into his pre-injury form from last season. After his second place finish in the Daytona 500, Bowman went quiet with no Top-10s from Atlanta through Phoenix. However, Bowman has collected a Top-5 in the past couple of races. Now, he is heading to one of his better tracks at Richmond. While he has not won there since the NextGen was deployed, Bowman has flashed speed via a pole and 2 Top-10s. Although Chevy has been sluggish in recent races at short tracks, Richmond usually is a solid spot for Hendrick Motorsports. Could that continue this weekend?
With the momentum from the back-to-back Top-5s, Alex Bowman will definitely be one to watch. Sure, Kyle Larson won this race last year and William Byron is the only multi-time winner. However, the continued quest for Bowman to return to his peak form has been a storyline to follow. While it is questionable whether Bowman is on the hot seat or not, there is no denying that 2023’s end was a massive disappointment. If Bowman does not get injured, there was a career season potentially brewing. For Bowman, hopefully Richmond can continue to demonstrate that potential for 2024.
Chris Buescher
Speaking of drivers who are heating up, Chris Buescher enters Richmond with 4 Top-10s in his past 5 races. Plus, he is the reigning track winner. Short track racing is where RFK Racing has thrived since Brad Keselowski joined the ownership ranks. Keselowski had a Top-10 each race at Richmond last year. While Buescher won the summer date, poor strategy trapped the 17 at the bottom of the leaderboard. Lessons were surely learned from that mistake.
Ford is searching for their first win of the NASCAR season still. Richmond Raceway might be the home for that win. In the NextGen era, Buescher has been strong at Richmond. In addition to his win last summer, Buescher collected a Top-3 in 2022. While that was also during the summer race, surely the 17 team can figure it out on Easter Sunday. The key for Buescher’s Sunday will be on Saturday though. After back-to-back weeks of starting from the rear, a quality qualifying effort will help keep the 17 up front. Not only for the race win, but Buescher needs to find himself up the leaderboard during stage breaks. In the Toyota Owners 400, look for another solid run from the Prosper, Texas native.
Daniel Suarez
Entering the season, Daniel Suarez was a name that came up on everybody’s hot seat radar. After his Atlanta win, the thought was that his seat would cool a bit. To be fair, that win does essentially lock him into the playoffs. However, that Atlanta win has been the only notable thing for Suarez this season. Through COTA, Suarez has no Top-10s outside of that one race. A single superspeedway win might not be enough to save Suarez’s seat. Remember, Trackhouse has at least 3 Cup Series worthy drivers signed on their roster. Plus, Shane van Gisbergen has been solid in his Xfinity runs thus far and Connor Zilisch is the next hot prospect in the ranks. That Trackhouse drivers room is stacked.
Now, the Toyota Owners 400 will not be a key determining factor whether Suarez keeps his seat at Trackhouse or not. But, a solid run at one of Suarez’s middling tracks could help his case. Since joining Trackhouse, Suarez has an average finish of 20.7 at Richmond. His best runs at the track came during his tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing. What will help Suarez keep his seat is overperforming at his weaker tracks. Suarez needs to start building momentum for the playoff run, which could start at Richmond.
Ryan Preece
Outside of the RFK Racing duo, a reinvigorated Stewart-Haas Racing might have something for the competition at Richmond. Ignoring the abomination that was their performance at COTA, SHR has looked notably better this season compared to last. Even with their poor performances over the past couple of speedways, short tracks were their best venues. There is no reason to expect that to be different this season. Of the four SHR drivers to watch, Ryan Preece is the man being tabbed for this entry.
While Preece has been the least improved SHR driver thus far, the schedule is hitting two of his best tracks on the schedule. Though Martinsville brought more headline attention for Preece last year, he did put together a Top-5 run in the summer race at Richmond. Since SHR is looking better, there is no reason to believe that Preece cannot put together strong runs at Richmond this year. If you are looking for a longshot bet to win the race, Ryan Preece might be a wise driver to towards. Perhaps, this would be a good time to put him in your fantasy lineup.
Bubba Wallace
Bubba Wallace got off to a hot start for the 2024 season. He was the only driver to Top-10 (or Top-5) in the first 2 races of the season. Since then, Wallace has simmered out a bit. His cars have had speed most weekends, but something usually upends his race to prevent a solid finish. Richmond might be exactly what this team needs to get the ship back in the right direction. While Wallace does not have a Top-10 in his career at Richmond, last summer’s race here was a career best for the 23XI Racing driver. After qualifying fifth, Wallace led 80 laps.
With their next body, Toyota has been the class of the field on the short tracks. While Joe Gibbs Racing has seemingly reaped the majority of that benefit, the 23XI Racing lads have also flashed significant speed. Richmond should be no different. It seems that the focus for Toyota was to improve on the short tracks. Could it be another dominate performance by the manufacturer? While fans will not know until practice on Saturday, it would be a safe assumption. Combine that with how well he ran last year, then Bubba Wallace will certainly be one to watch this weekend.
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