In the last Cup Series race we saw William Byron absolutely kick butt at COTA, becoming the first driver to win twice this year and technically lock himself into the playoffs. This week we go to the second Short track of the year where, just like the first, we could see tire wear play a factor. I have picked 5 notable drivers to look at, 1 based on 2024 season stats, 1 based on Short track stats, 1 based on the last Richmond race, 1 based on their Next Gen Richmond stats, and 1 based on the highest in points that wasn’t already picked. Here is a look at those 5 notable drivers 2024 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2024 as well as ranking through 6 races since the Playoffs started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year and at Richmond, 2023/24 Short track (under 1 mile) statistics and Richmond statistics in the Next Gen car.
Note: any driver in 4 straight Cup outlook articles is not in consideration for the next two, or any driver in 4 of 5 Cup outlook articles is not in consideration for the next one. This resets after they are put back into consideration.
This week not in consideration: No one
This week not in consideration: No one
1st in Points – Martin Truex Jr.
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 6 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 8.83 | 2nd of 36 | T48th of 854 |
| Best Fin. | 2nd | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 15th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | 1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 85.25 | 1st of 36 | 50th of 814‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 101.98 | 2nd of 36 | 64th of 814‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T6th of 47 | T102nd of 1056 |
| Poles | 0 | T6th of 47 | T93rd of 1056 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 47 | T54th of 1056 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 47 | T91st of 1056 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T10th of 47 | T181st of 1056 |
| Top 10’s | 4 | T2nd of 47 | T36th of 1056 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 0 | T1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T10th of 47 | T60th of 374* |
| Stage T10s | 10 | 1st of 47 | T6th of 374* |
| Stage Pts | 51 | 3rd of 47 | T30th of 374* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 9.08 | 2nd of 36 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T12th of 47 | T77th of 374* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 6 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 8 straight Stage T10’s (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 2 straight Wins (2019.09-2019.28) (tied 4th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 3 straight Top 2 finishes (2019.09-2020.28) (tied 5th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 4 straight Top 3 finishes (2018.28-2020.28 (tied 5th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 7 straight Top 5 finishes (2018.28-2022.07) (tied 3rd longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 1 straight Top 10 finish (active “streak”)
- 8 straight Top 10 finishes (2018.28-2022.24) (tied 9th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2 straight Stage Wins (2018.28 s1&s2) (tied 2nd longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 1 straight Stage T10 (active “streak”)
- 19 straight Stage T10’s (2017.26 s1-2022.24 s1) (longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2023/24 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 45 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 9.0(5th), 62.05% of Laps ran in Top15(15th), Avg. Driver Rating 90.77(7th), Best 2nd, Worst 19th, Laps Completed 99.93%, Led 6.49% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.42 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Fall Richmond Race
- Finished 7th, Started 10th, Led 18 laps(4.5%), Finished 8th in Stage 2, ran 228 Laps in Top 15(57.0% of laps ran), had 75.6 Driver Rating (ranked 14th)
- Notable Next Gen Richmond Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2022, 34 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 7.25 Avg. Finish (Ranks 3rd)
- Best Finish: 4th, Worst: 11th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 86.25% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 3rd)
- 98.9 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 2nd)
- Led 9.63% of laps he’s run (% ranks 3rd)
- 0 Top 3’s
- 1 Top 5, 25.0% (% ranks T8th)
- 3 Top 10’s, 75.0% (% ranks T2nd)
- 4 Top 15’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 12.5% (% ranks T1st)
- 5 Stage T10’s, 62.5% (% ranks T4th)
- 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 7th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2024 stats
– Last week at COTA Truex ran only 51.5% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was able to get 8 Stage Pts and finish the race 10th
– He only has 1 Top 5 this year, but he has 4 Top 10’s with the 2nd best Avg. Finish (8.83) and 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (101.98)
– He is currently on a 4 race Top 10 finish streak and heading into COTA he had an 8 straight Stage T10 streak
– At Richmond he has many streaks from 2017 to 2022 including 2 straight Wins, 7 straight Top 5’s, and 19 straight Stage T10’s
– In the 6 Short track races since the start of 2023 he has a 9.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 3’s and 5 Top 15’s, but only 2.42 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last Fall at Richmond Truex ran just 57% of his laps in the Top 15 and acquired only 3 Stage Pts en route to a 7th place finish
– He’s ran in all 4 Next Gen races at Richmond and has a 7.25 Avg. Finish in them with the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (98.9) among active drivers and a worst finish of only 11th
Outlook for this weekend
Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t been spectacular in 2024 for the most part, but his stats say he’s been solid as does the fact that he is 1st in points. However, this week we are heading to a track style where he could really shine as he’s ran well in the last 6 Short track races and has more good finishes than not. In addition, this is Richmond where he’s been great the last half decade or so and been pretty good in the 4 Next Gen races. All in all this weekend should be a good weekend for Truex if the stats hold true.
– Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2024 stats
– Last week at COTA Truex ran only 51.5% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was able to get 8 Stage Pts and finish the race 10th
– He only has 1 Top 5 this year, but he has 4 Top 10’s with the 2nd best Avg. Finish (8.83) and 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (101.98)
– He is currently on a 4 race Top 10 finish streak and heading into COTA he had an 8 straight Stage T10 streak
– At Richmond he has many streaks from 2017 to 2022 including 2 straight Wins, 7 straight Top 5’s, and 19 straight Stage T10’s
– In the 6 Short track races since the start of 2023 he has a 9.0 Avg. Finish with 2 Top 3’s and 5 Top 15’s, but only 2.42 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last Fall at Richmond Truex ran just 57% of his laps in the Top 15 and acquired only 3 Stage Pts en route to a 7th place finish
– He’s ran in all 4 Next Gen races at Richmond and has a 7.25 Avg. Finish in them with the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating (98.9) among active drivers and a worst finish of only 11th
Outlook for this weekend
Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t been spectacular in 2024 for the most part, but his stats say he’s been solid as does the fact that he is 1st in points. However, this week we are heading to a track style where he could really shine as he’s ran well in the last 6 Short track races and has more good finishes than not. In addition, this is Richmond where he’s been great the last half decade or so and been pretty good in the 4 Next Gen races. All in all this weekend should be a good weekend for Truex if the stats hold true.
2nd in Points – Ty Gibbs
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 6 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 7.83 | 1st of 36 | T34th of 854 |
| Best Fin. | 3rd | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 17th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.94% | T2nd of 36 | T73rd of 854 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 75.23 | 4th of 36 | 115th of 814‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 97.27 | 3rd of 36 | 114th of 814‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T6th of 47 | T102nd of 1056 |
| Poles | 0 | T6th of 47 | T93rd of 1056 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T11th of 47 | T181st of 1056 |
| Top 3’s | 2 | T2nd of 47 | T32nd of 1056 |
| Top 5’s | 3 | T1st of 47 | T23rd of 1056 |
| Top 10’s | 5 | 1st of 47 | T8th of 1056 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 0 | T1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| Stage Wins | 2 | T1st of 47 | T10th of 374* |
| Stage T10s | 5 | T7th of 47 | T70th of 374* |
| Stage Pts | 37 | 6th of 47 | 57th of 374* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 13.08 | 6th of 36 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 2 | 6th of 47 | T44th of 374* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 6 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 5 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series and longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 2 straight Stage Wins (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year and tied 14th longest streak in Cup Series all-time)
- 3 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 3 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 2023/24 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 45 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 12.33(T11th), 76.28% of Laps ran in Top15(5th), Avg. Driver Rating 92.93(5th), Best 5th, Worst 18th, Laps Completed 99.93%, Led 8.86% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 3.58 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Fall Richmond Race
- Finished 15th, Started 7th, Led 0 laps, Finished 10th in Stage 1 and 9th in Stage 2, ran 364 Laps in Top 15(91.0% of laps ran), had 84.7 Driver Rating (ranked 12th)
- Notable Next Gen Richmond Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2022, 34 drivers)
- 3 Races
- 20.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 20th)
- Best Finish: 9th, Worst: 36th
- Completed 81.67% of laps (% ranks 34th)
- 79.9% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 8th)
- 72.23 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 19th)
- Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 33.33% (% ranks T14th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 66.67% (% ranks 13th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 33.33% (% ranks 18th)
- 1 DNF, 33.33% (% ranks T33rd)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 3 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T9th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Ty Gibbs is notable because he is 2nd in points
– Gibbs was one of only 3 drivers to run all 68 laps in the Top 15 last week at COTA, but he only led 1 lap en route to an impressive 3rd place finish
– He has the best Avg. Finish this year (7.83) and the most Top 10’s of any driver, but he has just 5 Stage T10’s and a 13.08 Avg. Stage Finish
– He is currently on a 5 race Top 10 finish streak and had a 2 race Top 5 finish streak at one point this year
– The only streak he has here at Richmond is his 3 straight Stage T10 streak he is currently on
– In the last 6 Short track races he has the 5th best Laps in Top 15% with 2 Stage Wins and 3 Top 10’s, but only 1 Top 5
– Last Fall at Richmond Gibbs ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 and got 3 Stage Pts, but was only able to finish 15th
– He’s ran in 3 of the 4 Next Gen races at Richmond and has a 20.0 Avg. Finish, 1 Top 10, and a 72.23 Avg. Driver Rating; but he has ran 80% of his laps here in the Top 15
Outlook for this weekend
Ty Gibbs has been one of the better drivers this year when it comes to finishing good in races, but he has struggled a bit in stage finishes. However, he is still 2nd in points and heading to a Short track could help his stages as he’s done well in them at these tracks, but coincidentally he hasn’t finished as well in races. Another thing that isn’t great for Gibbs is that this weekend is Richmond where he has ran quite a few laps in the Top 15 but hasn’t finished great in races or stages. Based on the stats I expect at least a decent run this weekend for Gibbs, but where he finishes is up in the air.
– Ty Gibbs is notable because he is 2nd in points
– Gibbs was one of only 3 drivers to run all 68 laps in the Top 15 last week at COTA, but he only led 1 lap en route to an impressive 3rd place finish
– He has the best Avg. Finish this year (7.83) and the most Top 10’s of any driver, but he has just 5 Stage T10’s and a 13.08 Avg. Stage Finish
– He is currently on a 5 race Top 10 finish streak and had a 2 race Top 5 finish streak at one point this year
– The only streak he has here at Richmond is his 3 straight Stage T10 streak he is currently on
– In the last 6 Short track races he has the 5th best Laps in Top 15% with 2 Stage Wins and 3 Top 10’s, but only 1 Top 5
– Last Fall at Richmond Gibbs ran 91% of his laps in the Top 15 and got 3 Stage Pts, but was only able to finish 15th
– He’s ran in 3 of the 4 Next Gen races at Richmond and has a 20.0 Avg. Finish, 1 Top 10, and a 72.23 Avg. Driver Rating; but he has ran 80% of his laps here in the Top 15
Outlook for this weekend
Ty Gibbs has been one of the better drivers this year when it comes to finishing good in races, but he has struggled a bit in stage finishes. However, he is still 2nd in points and heading to a Short track could help his stages as he’s done well in them at these tracks, but coincidentally he hasn’t finished as well in races. Another thing that isn’t great for Gibbs is that this weekend is Richmond where he has ran quite a few laps in the Top 15 but hasn’t finished great in races or stages. Based on the stats I expect at least a decent run this weekend for Gibbs, but where he finishes is up in the air.
4th in Points – Denny Hamlin
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 6 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.67 | 7th of 36 | T131st of 854 |
| Best Fin. | 1st | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 23rd | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.94% | T2nd of 36 | T73rd of 854 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 84.57 | 2nd of 36 | 57th of 814‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 104.45 | 1st of 36 | 51st of 814‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T2nd of 47 | T23rd of 1056 |
| Poles | 1 | T2nd of 47 | T16th of 1056 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 47 | T54th of 1056 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 47 | T91st of 1056 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T10th of 47 | T181st of 1056 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T10th of 47 | T217th of 1056 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 1 | T4th of 36 | T71st of 854 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 36 | T1st of 854 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T4th of 47 | T26th of 374* |
| Stage T10s | 7 | T3rd of 47 | T42nd of 374* |
| Stage Pts | 48 | 4th of 47 | T36th of 374* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 9.67 | 3rd of 36 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 6 | 4th of 47 | T15th of 374* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 6 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 4 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 1 straight Top 2 finish (active “streak”)
- 3 straight Top 2 finishes (2021.09-2022.07) (tied 5th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (2016.26-2018.09 & 2021.09-2022.24)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes (2015.26-2018.09)
- 4 straight Stage Wins (2021.09 s1-2021.28 s2) (longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 3 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 4 straight Stage T10’s (2021.09 s1-2021.28 s2) (tied 10th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2023/24 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 45 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 5.17(1st), 94.15% of Laps ran in Top15(1st), Avg. Driver Rating 122.03(1st), Best 1st, Worst 20th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 21.78% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 4 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 5.42 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Fall Richmond Race
- Finished 2nd, Started 3rd, Led 20 laps(5.0%), Finished 3rd in Stage 1 and 5th in Stage 2, ran 400 Laps in Top 15(100% of laps ran), had 120.5 Driver Rating (ranked 2nd)
- Notable Next Gen Richmond Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2022, 34 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 6.75 Avg. Finish (Ranks 2nd)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 20th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 93.75% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 1st)
- 109.98 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 7.38% of laps he’s run (% ranks 5th)
- 1 Win, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Top 2’s, 50.0% (% ranks 2nd)
- 3 Top 5’s, 75.0% (% ranks 2nd)
- 3 Top 15’s, 75.0% (% ranks T6th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 12.5% (% ranks T1st)
- 5 Stage T10’s, 62.5% (% ranks T4th)
- 5.13 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Main Points & Outlook
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his stats at Richmond in the Next Gen car
– Hamlin was able to win Stage 2 last week at COTA but that was about it as he ran just 51.5% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 14th
– He has the 2nd best Laps in Top 15% this year and the best Avg. Driver Rating (104.45), but his Avg. Finish is only 7th best (12.67) and he has just 2 Top 10’s
– The only streak he’s had this year is a 4 straight Stage T10 streak
– His Richmond streaks are more impressive as he’s currently on a 3 straight Stage T10 streak and in 2021 he won 4 straight stages here
– He’s been amazing in the last 6 Short track races as he has the best Avg. Finish, Laps in Top 15%, Avg. Driver Rating, and he’s led 22% of his laps while getting 2 wins
– Last Fall at Richmond Hamlin ran all 400 laps in the Top 15 and led 20 laps, but he ended up 2nd in the race with the 2nd best Driver Rating
– In the 4 Next Gen races at Richmond he has the best Laps in Top 15% and Avg. Driver Rating among active drivers, and is 2nd best in terms of Avg. Finish
Outlook for this weekend
Denny Hamlin may have 1 Win in 2024 thru 6 races, but other than that he only has 1 other Top 10 finish despite many good in-race stats. All of that could change for the better this weekend as he’s been great at Short tracks between last year and this year. In the 6 races he has 2 Wins and 4 Top 3’s with great runs as well. Even worse for the competition is he’s been great at Richmond in the Next Gen car as well. So, in summary if you’re looking for someone who has a great chance at winning this week, look no further than Hamlin.
– Denny Hamlin is notable because of his stats at Richmond in the Next Gen car
– Hamlin was able to win Stage 2 last week at COTA but that was about it as he ran just 51.5% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 14th
– He has the 2nd best Laps in Top 15% this year and the best Avg. Driver Rating (104.45), but his Avg. Finish is only 7th best (12.67) and he has just 2 Top 10’s
– The only streak he’s had this year is a 4 straight Stage T10 streak
– His Richmond streaks are more impressive as he’s currently on a 3 straight Stage T10 streak and in 2021 he won 4 straight stages here
– He’s been amazing in the last 6 Short track races as he has the best Avg. Finish, Laps in Top 15%, Avg. Driver Rating, and he’s led 22% of his laps while getting 2 wins
– Last Fall at Richmond Hamlin ran all 400 laps in the Top 15 and led 20 laps, but he ended up 2nd in the race with the 2nd best Driver Rating
– In the 4 Next Gen races at Richmond he has the best Laps in Top 15% and Avg. Driver Rating among active drivers, and is 2nd best in terms of Avg. Finish
Outlook for this weekend
Denny Hamlin may have 1 Win in 2024 thru 6 races, but other than that he only has 1 other Top 10 finish despite many good in-race stats. All of that could change for the better this weekend as he’s been great at Short tracks between last year and this year. In the 6 races he has 2 Wins and 4 Top 3’s with great runs as well. Even worse for the competition is he’s been great at Richmond in the Next Gen car as well. So, in summary if you’re looking for someone who has a great chance at winning this week, look no further than Hamlin.
5th in Points – Kyle Larson
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 6 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.33 | 8th of 36 | T154th of 854 |
| Best Fin. | 1st | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 32nd | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.64% | 23rd of 36 | 412th of 854 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 73.8 | 5th of 36 | 125th of 814‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.1 | 5th of 36 | 124th of 814‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T2nd of 47 | T23rd of 1056 |
| Poles | 0 | T6th of 47 | T93rd of 1056 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 47 | T54th of 1056 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 47 | T91st of 1056 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T5th of 47 | T85th of 1056 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T10th of 47 | T217th of 1056 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 1 | T4th of 36 | T71st of 854 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T17th of 36 | T408th of 854 |
| Stage Wins | 2 | T1st of 47 | T10th of 374* |
| Stage T10s | 7 | T3rd of 47 | T42nd of 374* |
| Stage Pts | 57 | T1st of 47 | T20th of 374* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 7.58 | 1st of 36 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 7 | T2nd of 47 | T11th of 374* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 6 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Stage Wins (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year and tied 14th longest streak in Cup Series all-time)
- 4 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (2017.26-2018.28)
- 5 straight Stage T10’s (2022.07 s2-2023.07 s2) (tied 6th longest streak in Cup Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2023/24 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 45 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 5.67(2nd), 75.19% of Laps ran in Top15(6th), Avg. Driver Rating 102.8(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 19th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 6.0% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.17 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Fall Richmond Race
- Finished 19th, Started 14th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 63 Laps in Top 15(15.75% of laps ran), had 62.7 Driver Rating (ranked 21st)
- Notable Next Gen Richmond Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2022, 34 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 9.75 Avg. Finish (Ranks 7th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 19th
- Completed 99.94% of laps (% ranks T7th)
- 74.48% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 9th)
- 95.78 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 5th)
- Led 6.5% of laps he’s run (% ranks 6th)
- 1 Win, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Pole, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Top 5’s, 50.0% (% ranks T3rd)
- 3 Top 15’s, 75.0% (% ranks T6th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 5 Stage T10’s, 62.5% (% ranks T4th)
- 3.88 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T4th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his stats on Short tracks in 2023/2024
– COTA was tough for Larson as he ran just 44% of his laps in the Top 15, got run over by the Belldozer, and ended up finishing 17th after the Haley DQ
– He has 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, and the best Avg. Stage Finish in 2024, but he also has just 2 Top 10’s and the 8th best Avg. Finish this year
– The only streaks he has this year are stage streaks, including a 2 straight Stage Win streak
– His Richmond streaks aren’t too impressive as the best finish streak he’s had here is a 3 race Top 10 streak in the late 2010’s
– He’s done very well in the last 6 Short track races as he has the 2nd best Avg. Finish, 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating, and has 2 Wins with 4 Top 5’s
– Larson’s one bad race in the last 6 Short track races was at Richmond last Fall where he finished 19th in the race and ran only 16% of his laps in the Top 15
– This was also his worst Next Gen race at Richmond as in the 4 races he has a 9.75 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, and 3.88 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
Kyle Larson has had a similar season to Denny Hamlin in that he’s run well and has a win, but overall hasn’t had great finishes. That could change this weekend as, just like Hamlin, he’s been very good on Short tracks since the start of 2023. Even better is that since the introduction of the Next Gen he’s been really good at Richmond. However, the last race here was pretty darn bad for Larson. Overall when you look at the stats it’s clear that Larson will run well this weekend and most likely finish well, but you can’t throw out how he ran here last Fall either.
– Kyle Larson is notable because of his stats on Short tracks in 2023/2024
– COTA was tough for Larson as he ran just 44% of his laps in the Top 15, got run over by the Belldozer, and ended up finishing 17th after the Haley DQ
– He has 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, and the best Avg. Stage Finish in 2024, but he also has just 2 Top 10’s and the 8th best Avg. Finish this year
– The only streaks he has this year are stage streaks, including a 2 straight Stage Win streak
– His Richmond streaks aren’t too impressive as the best finish streak he’s had here is a 3 race Top 10 streak in the late 2010’s
– He’s done very well in the last 6 Short track races as he has the 2nd best Avg. Finish, 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating, and has 2 Wins with 4 Top 5’s
– Larson’s one bad race in the last 6 Short track races was at Richmond last Fall where he finished 19th in the race and ran only 16% of his laps in the Top 15
– This was also his worst Next Gen race at Richmond as in the 4 races he has a 9.75 Avg. Finish with 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, and 3.88 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
Kyle Larson has had a similar season to Denny Hamlin in that he’s run well and has a win, but overall hasn’t had great finishes. That could change this weekend as, just like Hamlin, he’s been very good on Short tracks since the start of 2023. Even better is that since the introduction of the Next Gen he’s been really good at Richmond. However, the last race here was pretty darn bad for Larson. Overall when you look at the stats it’s clear that Larson will run well this weekend and most likely finish well, but you can’t throw out how he ran here last Fall either.
12th in Points – Chris Buescher
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 6 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.5 | 9th of 36 | T160th of 854 |
| Best Fin. | 2nd | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 37th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 85.0% | 34th of 36 | 744th of 854 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 47.29 | 11th of 36 | 313th of 814‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 78.45 | 13th of 36 | 307th of 814‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T6th of 47 | T102nd of 1056 |
| Poles | 0 | T6th of 47 | T93rd of 1056 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 47 | T54th of 1056 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 47 | T91st of 1056 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T10th of 47 | T181st of 1056 |
| Top 10’s | 4 | T2nd of 47 | T36th of 1056 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 1 | T4th of 36 | T71st of 854 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T17th of 36 | T408th of 854 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T10th of 47 | T60th of 374* |
| Stage T10s | 3 | T16th of 47 | T123rd of 374* |
| Stage Pts | 10 | T20th of 47 | T142nd of 374* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 19.25 | 19th of 36 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T12th of 47 | T77th of 374* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 6 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 1 straight Win (active “streak”)
- 1 straight Stage T10 (active “streak”)
- 2 straight Stage T10’s (2019.09 s1&s2)
- 2023/24 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 45 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 10.67(8th), 57.47% of Laps ran in Top15(17th), Avg. Driver Rating 86.2(10th), Best 1st, Worst 30th, Laps Completed 99.89%, Led 3.93% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Fall Richmond Race
- Finished 1st, Started 26th, Led 88 laps(22.0%), Finished 2nd in Stage 2, ran 319 Laps in Top 15(79.75% of laps ran), had 121.6 Driver Rating (ranked 1st)
- Notable Next Gen Richmond Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2022, 34 drivers)
- 4 Races
- 12.25 Avg. Finish (Ranks 11th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 30th
- Completed 99.88% of laps (% ranks T13th)
- 56.38% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 16th)
- 92.38 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 10th)
- Led 5.51% of laps he’s run (% ranks 10th)
- 1 Win, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Top 3’s, 50.0% (% ranks T2nd)
- 3 Top 15’s, 75.0% (% ranks T6th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 25.0% (% ranks T12th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 2 Stage T10’s, 25.0% (% ranks T16th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Chris Buescher is notable because of his race last Fall here at Richmond
– Last week Buescher started 20th at COTA, ran 53% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up with a respectable 7th place finish
– His 2024 stats aren’t too pretty as he has the 19th best Avg. Stage Finish with only 10 Stage Pts and the 13th best Avg. Driver Rating, but he has 4 Top 10’s and 1 Top 2 finish
– He is currently on a 3 race Top 10 finish streak
– His streaks at Richmond aren’t too impressive as he is on a 1 race Win “streak” and his best streak here is just a 2 straight Stage T10 streak in 2019
– The last 6 Short track races have been decent for him as he has the 10th best Avg. Driver Rating with 1 Win, but also has the 17th best Laps in Top 15% with just 1.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last Fall at Richmond Buescher was able to lead 22% of the race, run 80% of he laps in the Top 15, win the race, and end up with the best Driver Rating in the race
– Overall he’s struggled at Richmond with the Next Gen car as he does have 2 Top 3’s, but he has only 2 Stage T10’s and has the 16th best Laps in Top 15% among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Chris Buescher hasn’t had a great start to 2024, but he hasn’t had a bad start either as he has 4 Top 10’s in the 6 races. However, it’s his stages that are killing him once again. This week none of that will probably change as he’s finished well in the last 6 Short track races, but has not done well in stages. Overall in the Next Gen car he’s either done really good or not so good at Richmond, but he did win the last Cup race held here. Based on all of this Buescher may struggle in Stage 1 and 2, but watch out for him to find a way to finish well.
– Chris Buescher is notable because of his race last Fall here at Richmond
– Last week Buescher started 20th at COTA, ran 53% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up with a respectable 7th place finish
– His 2024 stats aren’t too pretty as he has the 19th best Avg. Stage Finish with only 10 Stage Pts and the 13th best Avg. Driver Rating, but he has 4 Top 10’s and 1 Top 2 finish
– He is currently on a 3 race Top 10 finish streak
– His streaks at Richmond aren’t too impressive as he is on a 1 race Win “streak” and his best streak here is just a 2 straight Stage T10 streak in 2019
– The last 6 Short track races have been decent for him as he has the 10th best Avg. Driver Rating with 1 Win, but also has the 17th best Laps in Top 15% with just 1.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
– Last Fall at Richmond Buescher was able to lead 22% of the race, run 80% of he laps in the Top 15, win the race, and end up with the best Driver Rating in the race
– Overall he’s struggled at Richmond with the Next Gen car as he does have 2 Top 3’s, but he has only 2 Stage T10’s and has the 16th best Laps in Top 15% among active drivers
Outlook for this weekend
Chris Buescher hasn’t had a great start to 2024, but he hasn’t had a bad start either as he has 4 Top 10’s in the 6 races. However, it’s his stages that are killing him once again. This week none of that will probably change as he’s finished well in the last 6 Short track races, but has not done well in stages. Overall in the Next Gen car he’s either done really good or not so good at Richmond, but he did win the last Cup race held here. Based on all of this Buescher may struggle in Stage 1 and 2, but watch out for him to find a way to finish well.
