NASCAR What Ifs: Kyle Busch Stays with Roush Racing

The history of NASCAR is filled with What Ifs. Certain decisions (both on and off track) have altered the course of how events unfolded. Silly season moves, pit strategies, and NASCAR officiating all have had moments where a decision could have gone either way. Fans know what happened when one decision was made, but what if a different choice occurred? Instead of what actually happened, what would have happened if the other option was picked? How different would NASCAR history look with certain different outcomes. For this new Pit Pass Network series, that is what will be examined: the NASCAR What Ifs. The first article will look into how different the NASCAR landscape would look if a developmental driver stayed with his original team. What if Roush Racing kept Kyle Busch?

Kyle Busch is one of the most decorated drivers in NASCAR history. There has not been a driver who has visited victory lane more than Busch across the three national series. At the time of writing, Busch has racked up 230 wins (63 Cup, 102 Xfinity, and 65 Truck). Currently, Busch drives for Richard Childress Racing in the team’s 8 car.

Most notably, Busch drove for Joe Gibbs Racing in the 18 car with primary sponsorship from Mars Inc (M&Ms). Many know that Busch entered the Cup Series with Hendrick Motorsports, replacing Terry Labonte in the 5 car. However, Busch was originally a Roush developmental driver. Following in his older brother’s footsteps, the younger Busch brother was on a path to be a Ford driver. However, certain key decisions happened that led Kyle Busch to where he is today. Now, what would have happened if Kyle Busch did not leave in 2003?

What Actually Happened

At the young age of 16, Kyle Busch started making spot starts for Roush Racing in their 99 truck. It was the same truck that Kurt Busch had piloted in 2000. The younger Busch brother impressed in his 6 starts during the 2001 season. This included 2 Top-10s (IRP and Las Vegas) with an average finish of 19.2. However, there was a minor blip in Busch’s 2001 season. He was slated to drive the 99 truck at Auto Club Speedway, and even topped the practice charts. However, the CART Racing Series was hosting a race at the track with sponsorship from Marlboro Cigarettes. Since Busch was under 18, he was ruled ineligible to run the Truck Series race.

To avoid circumstances like this from happening again, NASCAR implemented a rule that a driver would have to be 18 years old to compete in the three national series. That took Busch out of the 99 truck for the 2002 season. Busch would run the full ASA Natioanl Tour in a Roush backed entry. He would Top-10 in half of his starts and finish 8th in points. Heading into the 2003 season, it seemed set that Busch would drive the 99 truck once he turned 18 (which would be in May).

Roush Picks Carl Edwards

In a surprising bit of news, it was announced that Kyle Busch and Roush Racing would be parting ways before the 2003 season. Kurt Busch had signed an extension in 2002 to remain with the team for 3 more years. However, Roush was giving the younger Busch brother the boot. Instead of waiting for Busch to turn 18 for the 99 truck, Jack Roush was impressed with Carl Edwards enough to pick him for the ride. Jon Wood, who was coming off a solid 2002 campaign in the 50 truck, was also retained for the 2003 season. With no ride left at Roush, Busch found a new developmental deal with Hendrick Motorsports. With partnership from NEMCO Motorsports, Busch would bypass the Truck Series and start 7 races in the 87 Busch Series entry. 

The rest is history to say the least. Kyle Busch would pick up two second place finishes in 2003, including one in his debut race at Charlotte. The other second came at Darlington. Hendrick Motorsports would put Busch in the 5 Busch Series car for the 2004 season, where he would finish second in points after winning 5 times.

Busch’s performance was strong enough to be Terry Labonte’s replacement when the Texan decided to “semi-retire” at the end of the 2004 season. In his rookie season, Busch would breeze to win Rookie of the Year and picked up his first Cup Series win at Auto Club. At the time, Busch would be the youngest driver to win a Cup Series race. 

While Kyle Busch found success with his new home, Roush Racing did not seem to have made a massive mistake. Carl Edwards proved to be a high-level talent, eventually replacing Jeff Burton in the 99 Cup car. While Jon Wood did not pan out, the Cup lineup was stacked through most of the 2000s. Plus, Kyle Busch did not fully mature into his dominating self until he left Hendrick Motorsports for Joe Gibbs Racing.

What If Kyle Busch Stayed With Roush Racing?

How differently would Kyle Busch’s career look if Roush retained him back in 2003? What would be the ripple effect from that change in history? This article will take a deep dive into the alternate history NASCAR fans could have seen if Kyle Busch stayed at Roush Racing in 2003. 

Some ground rules before delving into the alternate history. Firstly, this article will not go week-by-week for any drivers’ results during the time period. While certain assumptions will be made about performance, this article is not intended to change the results of any specific race. For this What If, the focus will be from 2003 to 2006. This is not an attempt to map out Kyle Busch’s entire career from start to present day. Finally, remember this is a hypothetical projection based on this writer’s research and perspective. You might disagree with the outcomes put forth here. If you do, please leave a comment about how you think NASCAR history would have changed if Kyle Busch stayed with Roush Racing. 

2003

As mentioned earlier, the initial plan for Kyle Busch in 2003 was that he would drive the 99 truck once he turned 18. Busch did testing for the 99 truck in Lakeland, Florida prior to the 2003 season. Instead of picking Carl Edwards to drive the 99 truck, Kyle Busch remains and will run a part-time schedule for the 2003 season. Busch will make his 2003 debut at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Hardee’s 200. Busch will remain in the 99 truck for the remainder of the 2003 season. 

What About Carl Edwards?

With Busch in the 99 truck, where does Carl Edwards go? Based on how Roush Racing operated their developmental drivers in the early 2000s, it would be unlikely that Edwards would be placed in one of their Xfinity cars. Roush stuck to a plan of running their young drivers through the three series in order. In 2002, Edwards made 7 starts in the Truck Series for MB Motorsports. Would Roush be able to bring Edwards in on a part-time deal for the 2003 season? With only 4 races of no-Busch in the 99, it is arguable if that would be enough to entice Edwards to Roush. Based on a 2003 interview, it does not seem that Edwards had any other offers at the time. A developmental deal with a top NASCAR team would likely be enough to entice him. After Busch takes over the 99 truck, Roush could again run Edwards in the ASA Nationals Tour. Theoretically, Roush could also add a third truck to their lineup.

In this alternate reality, the Roush Racing Truck Series lineup would consist of Jon Wood in the 50 and Kyle Busch/Carl Edwards in the 99. Nothing would change for the Roush lineup in their Busch or Cup Series lineups. 

As for Hendrick Motorsports, would 2003 look much different for their team? Not really.

Busch ran 7 races for NEMCO Motorsports in a partnership with Hendrick Motorsports. Without Busch, Hendrick does not enter that partnership. Joe Nemechek, David Reutimann, and Jeff Fuller run the starts Busch would have completed. 

Based on how well Edwards ran in 2003, it would be safe to assume that Kyle Busch would have a successful 2003 in the Truck Series. Between Edwards and Busch, the 99 truck would have been competitive for the owners championship. 

2004

With Roush equipment, Busch makes the most of his 21 starts in the Truck Series in 2003. Similar to how Carl Edwards does in real life, Busch is able to win Rookie of the Year and a handful of races. His performance in the 99 truck is enough to advance him to the Busch Series for the 2004. Instead of Greg Biffle, Busch will drive the 60 entry for Roush Racing in NASCAR’s secondary series. Busch’s call-up allows Carl Edwards to run fulltime in the 99 truck. Since Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, and Mark Martin make starts in the Busch Series, Edwards will have a few races in either the 9 or 17 Busch entries. Also, Jon Wood remains the driver of the 50 truck.

Hendrick Motorsports

Meanwhile, the outlook for Hendrick Motorsports is now drastically different. Brian Vickers, fresh off winning the 2003 Busch Championship, will still be called upon to replace Joe Nemechek in the 25 Cup car (as he did at the end of 2003). With Vickers in Cup and Busch with Roush, who drives the 5 Busch Series entry? Vickers was the first driver to run fulltime for Hendrick in the Busch Series. In 2002, the ride was split between Ron Hornaday, David Green, and Ricky Hendrick. None of those three are viable options for the 5 car in 2004. Hendrick signed Boston Reid and Kyle Krisiloff to developmental deals in 2004. 

Boston Reid made 3 starts in the 87 NEMCO entry in actual history in 2004. Reid, Krisiloff, and 2005 developmental signing Blake Frese were part of the ensemble to drive the 5 Busch entry in 2005. Now that Busch is still with Roush, Hendrick turns the 5 car into a part-time entry. Reid and Krisiloff will make a handful of starts. Jimmie Johnson and Brian Vickers will also run spot starts in the 5. Despite Busch being absent, Reid and Krisiloff still do not pan out for Hendrick Motorsports.

Roush 99 Car

Despite the changes to history, Jeff Burton will still enter 2004 with sponsorship issues. In addition to the funding issues, Burton entered the season on a 76 winless streak. Between the sponsorship headache and dip in performance, Burton decided to jump ship from Roush to join Richard Childress Racing. Signing a 3-year deal, Burton replaced Dave Blaney (who replaced the fired Johnny Sauter) in the 30 AOL car. This opened the door for Carl Edwards to make his Cup debut at Michigan and finish 2004 in the 99 car. 

Edwards did get the call-up from the Truck Series in real life, but Roush now has a top prospect in the Busch Series. Kyle Busch will be having the same level of success with Roush as he did with Hendrick in 2004. Busch will pick up 3-4 wins, leading to a Top-3 points finish. With Burton departing, Busch will finish 2004 pulling double duty between Cup and Busch Series. Edwards will remain in the Truck Series for now. 

Terry Labonte’s Retirement

While shifting Kyle Busch into Carl Edward’s 2004 journey was relatively easy, figuring out how to handle Terry Labonte’s retirement was a tall task. Since Kyle Busch was essentially the only option to replace Labonte in 2005, there is little documentation about alternative options to drive the 5 in 2005. Plus, Labonte did not announce his retirement from fulltime competition until October of 2004. If Labonte still retires, who steps into the 5 car?

Jeff Burton would be an option. Without a Busch Series prospect waiting in the wings, would Rick Hendrick pressure Terry Labonte to make a decision sooner? Potentially, but that would seem unlikely based on their history together. Labonte won 2 championships with Hendrick and deserved the opportunity to make his decision on his time. If history remains the same, Labonte’s decision would come too late for Hendrick to nab Burton. So, Burton still goes to RCR. Based on the silly season from that season, Dave Blaney becomes the best free agent available. Maybe Hendrick snags Robby Gordon, but he seemed set to start his own Cup team for 2005. 

Now that Kyle Busch is driving for Roush Racing, this means that Hendrick does not have a viable option for the 5 car in 2005. Similar to Mark Martin in 2005/2006, Terry Labonte postpones retirement one season. Instead of running in the 44, Labonte returns to the 5 for a retirement tour alongside Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace.

2005

2005 is a bit of a wild year. In real life, Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace went on retirement tours. Kyle Busch won Rookie of the Year in the Cup Series. Meanwhile, brother Kurt Busch had an ugly breakup with Roush Racing as he left for Penske Racing. Jamie McMurray signed for the 2007 season with Roush in 2005. Terry Labonte only runs in 14 races for the first of two part-time seasons in the 44 car. Carl Edwards does double duty for Roush, racing for championships in both Busch and Cup. 

Meanwhile, this alternate history sees Kyle Busch enter the 2005 season in the 99 Roush car. Sponsorship from Office Depot will still don the 99 car, as the sponsorship deal was with Roush rather than Edwards specifically (at least in 2005). Unfortunately, Busch misses out on Rookie of the Year due to running the final 13 races in 2004. Carl Edwards will drive the 60 car fulltime in the Busch. Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace will still go on their respective retirement tours. Terry Labonte will join them, hosting his own retirement tour in the 5 car. That takes care of how the 2005 season starts. How does it finish though?

Kurt Busch & Jamie McMurray

Both Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurrary made the interesting move to sign deals for 2007 with different teams while under contract for 2006. Both drivers were signed to replace drivers who were said to be retiring in 2005. For Penske Racing, Rusty Wallace was adamant that 2005 would be his last year. Meanwhile, Mark Martin left the door open to return if Roush could not find a replacement. Busch, after getting arrested for a DUI, would end up being fired by Roush with two races left in the 2005 season. Meanwhile, McMurray was able to get out of his contract with Chip Ganassi in the offseason.

Now that Roush Racing has Kyle Busch in the 99 car and Carl Edwards waiting in the Busch Series, does the team still sign Jamie McMurray? The initial announcement of the deal was in July, before Kurt Busch announced his signing with Penske Racing. Under the assumption that Edwards still performs as well as he did in real life in 2004 and 2005, then there would be no need to sign McMurray. Edwards becomes the heir apparent to Mark Martin’s 6 car. For the majority of the 2005 season, there is no need to expect Martin to return for 2006. The Roush lineup is set in theory. But what about Kurt Busch?

Does Kyle Alter Kurt’s History?

It was surprising to hear that reigning Cup Series Champion Kurt Busch would be leaving Roush Racing. While the Blue Deuce was an iconic car, Busch’s success with Roush had yet to taper off. When he announced his Penske deal, Busch was sitting fifth in the standings. He was lined up well to defend his title in the Chase.

Now that Roush has retained Kyle Busch, would Kurt still have the desire to leave? Kurt and Kyle were never Cup Series teammates. The closest they came was in 2022, when Kurt drove for 23XI and Kyle was with Joe Gibbs. However, Kurt of 2022 was much different than Kurt of 2005. Plus, both Busch brothers were content to walk their own NASCAR paths. Keeping the two together during their early Cup careers could alter how things play out with Roush though.

With that said, the motivations for Kurt’s decision to join Penske Racing remain despite having Kyle as a teammate. The opportunity to drive the iconic Penske 2 for a premier sponsor in Miller Lite is still too good to pass up. Kurt Busch still leaves to drive for Penske Racing. Despite Edwards being tabbed to replace Martin, this again leaves an open seat for Roush Racing in 2006. 

What About Hendrick’s 5 Car?

Before addressing who will drive the 97/26 in 2006, there will be a known open seat for Hendrick Motorsports in 2006. With Labonte’s impending retirement, Hendrick Motorsports will be chasing after top drivers who might sniff the open market. While Hendrick surely will make an attempt at Kurt Busch, Penske Racing still feels like the more natural fit for the older Busch brother. Where would that leave Hendrick Motorsports to go? Enter Jamie McMurray.

If Jamie McMurray was willing to sign on to replace Martin in the 6, surely he would have been willing to do it for the Hendrick 5 car. Similar to the 2 and 6, Hendrick’s 5 car was an iconic number in the sport with an additional iconic sponsor in Kellogs. Similar to real life, McMurray is able to get out of his contract with Chip Ganassi for the 2006 season. Labonte can fulfill his semi-retirement and run a part-time schedule in the 44 for 2006. 

Roush’s Fifth Car

Kurt Busch made his Penske announcement in August. At this point, Carl Edwards would already be in place for the 6. Meanwhile, McMurray is already snapped up by Hendrick Motorsports. The easiest answer to this riddle is repeating what actually happened. Martin decides to stay an extra season since Roush struggles to fill an open seat. David Ragan and Todd Kluever are still too green to put in the Cup Series. Jon Wood has flamed out with Roush already. Could a stop gap be found in this alternate history? 

Here is the major difference between real life and this reality: the expectation of having a complete roster. In real life, there was already doubt about whether Roush could have filled Mark Martin’s vacancy. Even after the Jamie McMurray announcement, Roush was still scrambling to find Martin’s replacement. In this alternate history, Martin’s replacement is already with the team (Edwards). Until Kurt Busch decides to depart, Roush Racing looks set for 2006. Despite the easiest (and maybe most realistic) decision is to bring Mark Martin back, the later date of knowing of an open seat prevents Martin’s return..

Who Drives the 26?

By taking away the Mark Martin option, who drives the 26 car in 2006? While a multi-driver lineup might be enticing, the driver picked is Ken Schrader. Instead of going to the Wood Brothers, Schrader signs with Roush Racing for the 2006 season.

Why Ken Schrader? Well, Roush will not want to sign a driver who will impede Todd Kluever and David Ragan from getting to the Cup Series. Both drivers are still developmental prospects in the Roush system in this history. Roush Racing will not want to block them from a future Cup ride. Schrader fits that bill best. He is a respected veteran who can also bring guidance to a relatively young/inexperienced lineup. Plus, bringing in Schrader would give Roush the flexibility to give Kluever and Ragan Cup starts in the 26 car (rather than the 06). 

If Schrader goes to Roush, then who drives for the Wood Brothers? Ricky Rudd was stepping away and was unwilling to continue in the seat. Based on these circumstances, Jon Wood gets the call-up from the Busch Series. The former Roush developmental driver will be behind the wheel of the historic 21 car in 2006. 

2006

2006 is where this What If journey will end. Entering the 2006 season, Roush Racing’s Cup lineup consists of the following:

• Carl Edwards – #6
• Greg Biffle – #16
• Matt Kenseth – #17
• Ken Schrader – #26
• Kyle Busch – #99

Kyle Busch’s first fulltime Cup season sees him pick up his first few wins in NASCAR’s top series. However, his season falls short of Carl Edwards’ phenomenal 2005 year. Busch will still make the Chase, but does finish in the Top-3 in points. The future for Busch is still bright, but the fallout from his brother’s tenuous split with Roush might have foreboding ramifications. Other changes from real life include Jamie McMurray driving for Hendrick Motorsports in the 5 car and Jon Wood making his Cup debut to start 2006. 

Similar to real life, Kyle Busch does make the Chase in back to back seasons. Along with a Chase spot, Busch will win in back-to-back seasons. Unlike in real life 2006, Roush has a strong season with 4 of their drivers. The 26 will become an afterthought with Schrader anchoring the ride. However, Carl Edwards and Matt Kesneth join Busch in the Chase. Despite missing the playoffs, Greg Biffle picks up a couple of wins. Jimmie Johnson will still hoist the championship trophy. 

Despite Roush’s ugly fallout with Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch remains with Roush Racing for the short term. As mentioned earlier, the Busch brothers forged their own NASCAR careers. When Kyle was not retained by Roush Racing, Kurt did not immediately leave the team. Same will happen here. Based on the contracts at the time, Kyle will sign a 3-year extension with the team during the 2006 season. That means he will not be driving the 18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing when they switch to Toyota.

How Different is Kyle Busch’s Career?

Busch racks up wins during his Roush tenure, but never to the same level as he did in his early Joe Gibbs Racing days. Since Roush was heavy in the secondary series, Busch will still dominate there in a Ford. What about Kyle Busch Motorsports? Well, the team will not be founded in 2009 since Roush is running a Truck Series operation at the time. Kyle will run Truck Series races while he is under contract with Roush though. 

With his contract expiring in 2009, Busch will become the first notable driver from Roush to leave since his brother did in 2005. Where does Kyle Busch go? The usual suspects of Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, Richard Childress Racing, and Penske Racing would be in the running. Obviously, Kyle Busch not driving for Hendrick causes a ripple effect that is difficult to predict who is in what seat in 2010. The most likely destination would be Hendrick Motorsports though, as an improved Jamie McMurray would still lose his seat to Busch. Even in this alternate history, Busch finds his way to Hendrick’s 5 car. 

Hendrick Move Fallout

Through this alternate history, Kyle Busch would still become a champion in the Cup Series. However, it will be with Hendrick Motorsports rather than Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite sharing the spotlight with Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt, Busch would still shine through. An argument could be made that a Roush to Hendrick trajectory would bolster his career stat line. Roush’s young drivers in the early/mid-2000s succeeded at high levels more so than Hendrick’s. A seasoned Busch with Hendrick Motorsports would be a deadly combination.

Kyle Busch’s departure from Roush Racing will kick off the exits of Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. Even with Busch staying in 2003, the decrease in performance at Roush Racing seems inevitable. 

Perhaps the biggest question mark is whether Kyle Busch Motorsports is founded. Hendrick Motorsports did not have a truck program in the 2010s. More than likely, Busch still founds KBM under the Chevy umbrella. If he did not, imagine how much that would change the course of NASCAR history. However, that is a What If for a different time.