Overreaction Monday: Bristol Spring

Who needs horsepower when the tire fallout is so drastic? The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway provided NASCAR fans with a second instant classic race of the season. What started out as a potentially catastrophic event for NASCAR (and Goodyear) turned into some good ole fashioned short track racing. Tire wear was the story of the day as managing the car became top priority. Surprisingly though, the Cup drivers were able to hold it together to have a long green flag run to the end. Ultimately, your favorite driver could not compete with Denny Hamlin on Sunday. But now it is Monday. Time to sit back, over analyze, and spit out some over-the-top opinions. Welcome back to Overreaction Monday for Bristol spring.

This is Denny Hamlin’s Year (But Seriously This Time)

Who is ready to hear this headline for a second straight season? At this point, Denny Hamlin is arguably the greatest driver to never win a championship. After Sunday, Hamlin racked up his 52nd Cup Series win. However, the Cup Series championship has eluded the Joe Gibbs driver thus far in his career. Last year, the constant chatter from numerous NASCAR media members was the championship was Hamlin’s to lose. Well, he certainly lost it. After back to back strong runs for Hamlin at Phoenix and Bristol, time to kick start that narrative all over again.

To be fair, Denny Hamlin as an early favorite for the title is reasonable. With how well the Toyotas have looked at Phoenix and Bristol, the manufacturer looks to be the best suited to win the Championship Race. However, the chaotic nature of the playoffs does not necessarily bode well for any pre-playoff predictions. Plus, the teams can make adjustments to catch up to the Toyotas for the second trip to these tracks.

It would be a bold proclamation to say a driver who only picked up his second Top-10 of the season is the championship favorite. Although Hamlin has led laps in each race this season, Bristol was the first race where he put it together for a great finish. Five races into the season is too early to crown Hamlin as the driver to beat. However, more strong runs will see that narrative take off as it did last year.

RFK Racing (and Ryan Blaney) are JGR’s Sole Competition

Joe Gibbs Racing is clicking on the short tracks so far this season. Toyota’s new body has been as good as advertised and they look to be the class of the field. If they are the championship favorites, who is going to be their best competition? Based on Phoenix and Bristol, that looks to be the RFK Racing duo and Ryan Blaney. If not for some bad luck during the last leg of the race, Blaney was enroute to another Top-10 finish. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski was a Top-5 driver all race long. Had Chris Buescher not almost spun in qualifying, his Bristol race probably would have looked better than the Top-10 he had.

Now, to whittle down the championship competition to 7 drivers is insane. Despite their short flaws, Chevy cannot be ignored. How can Ford be the better competition when they are still winless on the season? Sure, the championship race is held at a short(ish) track and Bristol is an elimination race. Even with throwing in Martinsville into this mix, that is only 3 of 10 playoffs races. At the very least, Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain have looked sporty enough to compete with the Toyotas. Once again, five races is not enough of a sample size to make declarations. RFK Racing have looked strong the past couple of weeks. Ryan Blaney has been a top driver this whole season. Are they in the mix? Yes. Are they the only ones? No.

Chevy is Doomed

Speaking of Chevy short track struggles. Despite 2 of the Top-5 being from the Chevy camp, the overall race felt of Chevy (outside of Kyle Larson) missing the mark. During the final stage, it was common to only see one Chevy inside the Top-10. Toyota and Ford dominated the upper-half of the field. Even Rick Ware Racing was outrunning the majority of the Chevys in the field.

The short track issue is not a new one for the Chevy camp either. Despite Kyle Larson winning the first two short tracks last season, the manufacturer fell off as the season wore on. Ford picked up the short track wins at Richmond and Martinsville. Meanwhile, Toyota looked strong at Bristol. It feels a bit of a rinse and repeat for this season.

With that said, Chevy is far from doomed. While they did not update their body, they still have won the majority of Cup Series races this season. Yes, two of those are superspeedway wins. However, Larson dominated Las Vegas. William Byron likely would have been more of a contender in that race as well if not for the trash bag that lodged a beer can into his car. The doom and gloom from Chevy really comes down to the fact that Martinsville and Phoenix make up the last two races of the season. Chevy have not looked good at the most recent races at those tracks. As the season progresses, the feeling is that Chevy will continue to fall behind because they do not have an updated body. Maybe that will be the case, but the Chevy is far from doomed in the championship hunt.

Washed Up Kyle Busch

Disappointing. The only word that can be used to describe Kyle Busch’s weekend at Bristol. Starting off with the Truck Series race where Busch was the heavy favorite. However, Christian Eckes was able to hold off Rowdy to pick up the win. Fast forward to the Cup race where Kyle Busch was a nonfactor all race long. The only “highlight” of the day for Busch was spinning out then driving in reverse down the back stretch.

After leading the points after the first two weeks, Kyle Busch now sits 16th in the standings. He has 3 straight races of finishes outside the Top-20, his pit crew is changed weekly, and the frustration seems to be building. Starting with the second half of 2023, it feels that Busch has been on a steady decline. After picking up 3 wins last year, the remainder of the season saw Busch wrecking or running noncompetitively (at least for wins). Outside of the superspeedways, the same could be said this year.

Before heading into the “washed” territory, Busch still has plenty left in the tank. One more lap in the Truck race and Busch likely passes Eckes. Sure, Phoenix and Bristol were not great days for the 8 car. However, Chevy as a whole struggled mightily. While he is on a 3-race bad result stretch, Las Vegas should have been a Top-10 before the pit road issues. Is Kyle Busch a championship contender? Right now it seems unlikely. However, he will be competitive this season and likely pick up a win to continue streak. It is not time to panic about Busch.

NASCAR Reinvigorated Short Track Racing

Perhaps the chief complaint about the NextGen car is how it completely stole the life out of short track racing. Since 2022, it is difficult to recall a good short track race prior to Sunday’s Food City 500. NASCAR has been working to fix it via every possible method outside of increasing horsepower. After how boring Phoenix was, the talk heading into Bristol was horsepower. Denny Hamlin was vocal about how it would not cost extra to add horsepower back into the Cup cars. Other drivers and NASCAR personalities chimed in as well, essentially backing up that point. However, the Food City 500 put on a spectacle despite maintaining the same package and tire from last fall. So, short track racing is fixed right?

Well, not so much. While Sunday’s action was great, no one knows how it happened. NASCAR, Goodyear, nor the teams have any idea how Sunday came to be. It simply happened. The only change from last fall to now was resin was put down instead of PJ1. While that definitely made a difference in practice and qualifying, it does not completely explain the race. Did the resin make the tires not lay down rubber? Maybe. When looking for answer from NASCAR/Goodyear, the answer was science.

Will Richmond and Martinsville see the same improved racing? No clue. Bristol runs the intermediate package, which is different from the other short tracks. Plus, Bristol is completely unique to the other short tracks. There is no guarantee that the playoff race at Bristol will mimic this. In all likelihood, this was a one-off that fans got to enjoy. As usual, NASCAR fell backwards into success. However, they have no idea how to replicate it.