Overreaction Monday: COTA

The first road course race of the 2024 season is officially in the books. Each NASCAR series took to Austin, Texas to race on the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). As per usual arrangement, each race had something different to offer. A young phenom was the focal point in the Truck Series race. Meanwhile, the Xfinity Series race was stacked with road course and Cup Series ringers. Finally, the NextGen turned into every fan’s NyQuil for a Sunday nap. Now that you have awoken from your Cup Series slumber, time to see what headlines to takeaway from this weekend at COTA. Overreaction Monday is here for the NASCAR weekend at COTA.

William Byron: Road Course Master

It is difficult to have a better race weekend than William Byron did at COTA. On Saturday, Byron topped the practice chart before taking the pole position in qualifying. Fast forward to the race where Byron was the dominant driver. Outside the start of final stage, Byron only gave up the lead when he was pitting. Had it not been for stage cautions, there is a strong likelihood that Byron leads all but a handful of laps on Sunday.

Over the past 3 road courses, William Byron is averaging a 1.33 finish. The driver of the 24 car has won at COTA and Watkins Glenn, while finishing runner up at the ROVAL last fall. Clearly, road course racing is kicking in for Byron. However, he is not quite a master of the lefts and rights quite yet. While each of his past 3 road course races have seen a Top-2 finish, Byron’s history at the other road courses still leaves much to be desired. Prior to his Watkins Glen win, the last solid road course race for Byron came at COTA. However, Byron failed to garner a Top-10 at Sonoma, the Indy GP, or Chicago last year.

Byron’s domination of COTA on Sunday might be more of a Hendrick Motorsports factor than Byron’s mastery of the road courses. For evidence, look at Alex Bowman. At COTA, his average finish is 4.3. Meanwhile, his best average at a non-ROVAL road course is 17.6. Bryon is following up a breakout 2023 with a season shaping up to be as good (if not better). However, his road course skills seem track dependent.

No Hope for Ford

After 6 weeks of the NASCAR schedule, Ford has visited victory lane exactly zero times. The manufacturer has been held winless across all three series. Ryan Blaney was the closest to winning a race, losing to Daniel Suarez at Atlanta by .003 seconds. Other than that, Ford has been noncompetitive this season. With the lack of presence in race winning speed, how can Ford expect to defend their series championships? How can a championship manufacturer win a championship when getting off to a slow start in the season?

While not seeing Ford in victory lane could be a red flag for many, the alarm bells need to remain off as of now. At this point last year, Ford had 3 wins across the three series. Of those 3 wins, Zane Smith in the 38 truck had 2 of them. The lone Cup Series win was Joey Logano winning Atlanta. For those panicking about Ford, relax. For whatever reason, Ford seems to get strong as the year progresses. Look in the Cup Series last year for a prime example. Through the first 21 races, Ford had 2 wins (Logano and Ryan Blaney). For the final 15 races, Ford tied for the most wins with 6 and then won the championship at Phoenix.

Now, would it be nice to see the Fords run more competitively? Of course. However, it seems that their new body is a work in progress rather than at its peak right now. If 2023 is any indication, expect the Fords to be sportier as the season wears on. Especially considering that Stewart-Haas Racing has looked better this season (ignore COTA), the manufacturer could be a strong contender to three-peat.

Track Limit Penalties are Excessive

Sometimes, the headlines seen here are appropriate for what transpired over the weekend. For COTA, NASCAR implements track limits on certain portions of the track. Most notably, the esses. If a driver has all four tires inside the curb, then NASCAR hits the driver with a pass through penalty. If that driver does it on the final lap of the race, then it is a 30-second penalty. On Saturday, the penalty was seen in full force through the Truck and Xfinity races. A combined 37 track limit penalties were handed out. Perhaps the most notable one was Shane van Gisbergen getting hit with the 30-second penalty on the final lap.

While the Cup Series race only saw 4 penalties handed out, the track limits punishment seemingly is way too harsh for the minimal gain a driver receives. At other road courses, short cutting the course would result in a stop-and-go penalty. However, COTA apparently does not have an area of the track where a driver could safely do a stop-and-go. However, a pass through penalty is a killer for most drivers, especially when there are limited cautions to bunch the field back up. Plus, there are no warnings for the drivers. On a first violation, the pass through penalty is slapped on.

F1, who also races COTA, has a different method for their track limits penalties. Instead of hitting drivers with a penalty immediately, each driver receives 3 warnings first. The third warning comes via a flag from the stand. On the fourth violation, then a driver is hit with a 5-second penalty. Even if you keep the pass through penalty, some form of warning process would seem fair for NASCAR. Why penalize a driver to an extreme degree if it only nets them (at best) a second gain.

Connor Zilisch is a Future Cup Champion

Heading into the Craftsman Truck Series race this weekend, there was much hype around 17-year old Connor Zilisch. Already this year, the Trackhouse prospect has claimed IMSA victories in the Rolex 24 at Daytona and the 12 Hours at Sebring. Saturday marked his first NASCAR national series start. At COTA, Zilisch immediately impressed Friday afternoon. In qualifying, Zilisch set the new track record for the Truck Series. Things were shaping up to be an impressive performance. Then Zilisch missed Turn 1 and immediately fell 1-lap down with a flat tire. Whomp whomp.

To call Zilisch’s first Truck race an adventure would be an understatement. After blowing the first turn, Zilisch went a lap down due to a tire. He managed to get the lucky dog to get his lap back. He drove through the field before getting hit with 2 course cutting penalties and being spun out. Late in the race, the young prospect made contact with Ty Majeski that created a tire rub. Through all of that, Zilisch finished with a Top-5. Clearly, the kid has talent and potential. There are some who are predicting great things in his future.

Could Connor Zilisch be a future Cup Series champion? Sure. Outside of the IMSA successes, Zilisch has been crafting his trade on the ovals via the CARS Tour, ARCA East, and other regional series. He has picked up a few oval wins to go with his IMSA success. However, it is way too early to tell whether he will be a future NASCAR great. Overhyping a young driver could be a detriment.