Overreaction Monday: Las Vegas Spring

Sports media is known for their hot takes or overreactions to the events on the court, field, and track. Especially for the 10 AM TV debate shows, the overreactions after any given set of games has become standard. The NASCAR world is not immune to this either. After every race, Monday morning brings a bounty of hot takes and overreactions to what occurred the weekend prior. A certain driver did not run well? Their season is doomed. This team that ran iffy last week had their entire lineup in the Top-10 this week? They are back and a force to be reckoned with. Kyle Larson won? Well, the championship has been decided. For this article (and series), there will be overreaction a plenty. Taking a look at this past weekend’s action, this is Overreaction Monday: Las Vegas Spring edition.

To be clear, the headlines you will read below will be exaggerations. Obviously, it is difficult to actually get full insight to a full season based on a single race. While there might be merit to the headline, there is a bit of tongue in cheek to them. However, there will be support to each claim and the claims themselves will not be completely outrageous. That said, these are “hot takes” and “overreactions” to what was seen the past weekend. The difference here is that it is known these reactions are a bit of a stretch. What are Mondays for though if not for overreactions.

Noah Gragson: The Answer to SHR’s Struggles

Depending on your feelings about Noah Gragson, seeing his immediate success with Steart-Haas Racing is great to see. After a disastrous 2023 with Legacy Motor Club, Gragson has already tripled his career Top-10 total in 3 races. While a Daytona Top-10 can be discredited, a strong run at Las Vegas is difficult to argue against. Gragson did not fluke his way to that Top-10. The 10 car clearly showed speed throughout the weekend, despite a 30th starting position. Even in dirty air, Gragson and the 10 car were able to navigate forward and race with the top teams.

Stewart-Haas Racing is trying to pick themselves out of their struggles. Kevin Harvick was the only reason this team was relevant last year. Strong runs by Gragson are a promising sign. It is way too early to say that this will lead to the team (or even Gragson) putting together a return to relevancy though. However, it is a great initial sign for the season. Now, Gragson’s teammates need to do their part as well. While Gragson has 2 Top-10s, the other three drivers have combined for 1.

Carson Hocevar Frontrunner for Rookie of the Year

Outside of Kyle Larson, Carson Hocevar might have been the most impressive driver on track. Well, most impressive compared to the expectations for said driver. Hocevar ran inside the Top-20 for essentially the entire race. He picked up his second straight Top-20 finish. Had it not been for a flat tire toward the end of Stage 2, there is a chance Hocevar’s finish might have been better than his 15th. Heading into the season, Hocevar was the most impressive in limited NextGen starts in 2023. That has seemed to continue as 2024 has started out.

Of course, it is too early to tell who is going to win Rookie of the Year. Plus, one of the rookies could win it by default via winning a race to lock themselves into the playoffs. However, Hocevar has stood out prominently compared to Josh Berry and Zane Smith. To be fair to Smith though, he slapped the wall early in the race and the car never fully recovered. Way too early to tell, but Hocevar has the edge right now.

Tire Problems are Back

Goodyear, what have you done? On Sunday, the pesky tire issues that plagued the early portion of 2022 seemed to return. Whether it was flat tires or loose lugs, tire issues persisted throughout the Pennzoil 400. Christopher Bell, Carson Hocevar, and Corey LaJoie all were plagued by a flat tire during the race. Meanwhile, Chris Buescher’s right front lug was not secured after his first pit stop. This resulted in the lone DNF of the day, as Buescher’s tire fell off and he slammed into the Turn 1 wall. Additionally, both Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs had long pit stops due to tire changers having to go back to secure the lug on.

This will be something to keep an eye on moving forward. Tire issues were a bit quiet last year, as pit crews adjusted to the new lug system and Goodyear worked to fix the constant flats. Flat tires could be a result of teams pushing the tire too far, but if this persists then Goodyear will be called upon to fix it.

Chase Elliott Questions

There seems to be a growing concern around Chase Elliott (if you look on social media at least). Out of all these takes, this seems to be the biggest overreaction. Chase Elliott failed to finish inside the Top-10 again, making 3 straight races to kick off 2024. Additionally, Elliott was the only Hendrick driver to not lead a single lap. Since the introduction of the NextGen car, Elliott has yet to win on a traditional 1.5 mile track (Nashville is a bit shy of 1.5 miles). It might not be a large consensus, but there are murmurs about an Elliott falloff.

Now, that seems a bit far stretched at this point. Elliott’s Top-15 running average Sunday was ninth overall (beating two of his teammates). Plus, the stat about not winning on 1.5 mile tracks is blown out of proportion. Even before the NextGen car, Elliott only had 2 wins on those types of tracks. Has Elliott been surpassed by both Kyle Larson and William Byron? Maybe. On one hand, Elliott has not won a race since 202. On the other, Elliott had the fifth best average finish last year. However, the former champ deserves a little more leeway before serious worry should kick in.

Jesse Love is Superspeedway Hype Only

After impressing his first 2 Xfinity starts, Jesse Love had a humbling race weekend in Las Vegas. Love did not qualify on pole for the third straight race. In fact, Love only qualified 15th. During the race, Love was an afterthought throughout. He failed to finish on the lead lap and was passed more than he passed others. It was a clear stepdown from his previous two weeks. However, it would be unfair to claim his success at Daytona and Atlanta were only due to superspeedway racing.

Remember, Love is making his first starts in a Xfinity Series car at every track on the schedule. Plus, he is only 19 years old. The kid has plenty of learning to do this season. Love will need to grow, but he has shown talent beyond drafting tracks. Yes, the FOX booth overpraising him this early into his career is premature (and annoying). However, fans cannot let their ire for the broadcasters influence their honest judgement of a young driver. Now, if fall Las Vegas looks like this (along with the rest of the season), then that tune can change.

Spire Will Dominate 2024

Spire Motorsports had themselves a solid weekend. Before getting to the main portion of this headline, their Cup Series program looked highly competitive on Sunday. Corey LaJoie was able to run inside the Top-5 during Stage 2 on equal tires. Carson Hocevar ran inside the Top-15 most of the day. The results for LaJoie and Zane Smith are not promising, but the eye test is showing promising results for the 2024 season.

However, the Craftsman Truck Series has been Spire’s playground this year. All three races have been won by Spire Motorsports or an affiliated team. Rev Racing and Nick Sanchez claimed Daytona. Kyle Busch busch-whacked the field at Atlanta. This past Friday, Rajah Caruth won from the pole for his first career win. After the demise of GMS Racing, Spire is easily the top Chevy team in the series. Early indications point to a 2024 dominated by Spire Motorsports. Sure, Busch can only run 3 more races. However, Sanchez and Caruth will be contenders for the season. Chase Purdy is also there.