Overreaction Monday: Phoenix Spring

After this past weekend’s NASCAR action, surely the discourse online is going to be calm, level-headed, and completely in touch with reality. No fan or media member is going to be proclaiming anything definitive, especially since the NASCAR season is in only in week 4 of a long and grueling schedule. No championships were decided, the new short track package had its first race, or no teams eliminated from the playoffs. It is way too early for bombastic claims. Plus, the discourse between differing viewpoints should be respectful and understanding of each other’s side. All that would be true if you stayed off social media. Grab your Monday coffee and get ready for the most accurate hot takes in the NASCAR world. Welcome back to Overreaction Monday: Phoenix Spring edition.

Season’s Over, Toyota Has Won the Championship

After a thoroughly impressive short track debut for their new body, Toyota Racing made a statement on Sunday. Toyotas managed to lead 298 of the 312 laps in the Shriner Children’s 500. Christopher Bell clearly had the best car in the field, after Tyler Reddick looked to have it during the early portion of the race. All four Joe Gibbs Racing cars led over 50 laps along with Reddick. Additionally, Erik Jones started off sporty before a bad pit stop essentially ruined his day. With the Championship Race being hosted at Phoenix this fall, clearly a Toyota will bring home the Cup Series Championship.

About that. Yes, Toyota put a whooping on the field. However, when has the spring Phoenix date meant anything for the Championship Race? Since the Phoenix Raceway became the unworthy home of the season finale, only once (in 4 years) has the manufacturer to win the spring race went on to win the championship. While both NextGen era races have seen the same manufacturer win the race, only 2022 saw the winning manufacturer hoist the trophy. In none of those seasons though did the same race team pull off the sweep.

It is too early to proclaim Toyota’s ascension to the championship. That is not to say it will not happen, but this is only the fourth race of the season. Despite how well the Toyotas ran on Sunday, only two of their cars looked as good in traffic as it did in clean air. Plus, Ford had more cars in the Top-5 and Top-10 than Toyota. Before crowning Toyota the championship, let the season play out.

Successful Short Track Package Debut

Phoenix Raceway might be home to the biggest disconnect between fans and NASCAR media. Reading through X, a majority of the notable NASCAR journalists were complimenting the improvement of the on-track action at Phoenix. When looking into the comment sections, the fans clearly disagreed. Once again, NASCAR has fiddled with the short track package in an attempt to make the NextGen car compelling on smaller tracks. While ignoring the fans’ desire of more horsepower, NASCAR messed with downforce and downsized the rear diffuser. What that led to on Sunday was considered an incremental success to many journalists.

Now, two things can be true at once. The on-track action could be an improvement upon last year’s racing. At the same time, it is still rough to watch. According to the statistics, this race had more green flag passes than any other NextGen Phoenix race. More passing means better racing, right? What are you going to believe? The numbers or your lying eyes. However, the number of green flag passes likely is boosted by the pit cycle and good cars passing bad cars. While there were almost 3,000 green flag passes, only 11 drivers had a quality pass percentage above 50% (passes of a Top-15 driver).

By Phoenix Standards

Look, was Sunday a better race than last year? Journalists and some drivers say yes. A significant portion of the fans are saying no. Personally, that answer would be no here as well. It was disheartening to see no movement in the field, especially in the mid-pack. Only a couple of drivers were able to knife their way through the field. At the same time, it would take a clearly slower driver to hold up a pack of cars for passing to be had during the long runs. What about tire wear? Well, Todd Gilliland was able to remain in the Top-10 during Stage 2 on over 30 lap older tires. That is less than ideal. At least Richmond has the tire falloff to look forward to this spring.

Here is a tiresome verbiage from the day as well: Phoenix standards. Phoenix Raceway has never been a barn burner of excitement, but it has held quality races before. “By Phoenix Standards” should not preface how fans grade a race. While some might have agenda-based reasons for not liking Sunday’s race, a lot of fans were simply bored by the product. NASCAR does not need to put on races like Atlanta early week. However, Las Vegas was enjoyable despite Kyle Larson dominating. Hopefully, Richmond can demonstrate better improvement for this new package.

Joey Logano is Going to Miss the Playoffs

Not to mince words, Joey Logano is off to a terrible start for the 2024 season. In 4 races, Logano has 3 finishes of 28th or worse. Not great, Bob! Leaving Phoenix, Logano currently sits 30th in points. Logano finds himself behind Harrison Burton, Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley, and Noah Gragson (who had the 35 point penalty). Early in the season, the 22 team is falling behind and will have to play catch up. However, it feels early to say Logano will miss the playoffs.

Is that to say there is no cause for concern? No, there can be worry from the Joey Logano fanbase. Logano has been absent from top contention for over a season now. Despite the solid results last year, the 22 car was concerningly slower for most of 2023. Logano’s good finishes usually were luck induced, catching a caution at the right time to either flip the track position or use pit strategy to do so. On the two non-superspeedways, the performances have been less than stellar. Logano managed a Top-10 at Las Vegas, but he mostly was relegated to running outside the Top-10 during the race. Meanwhile, Sunday saw Logano running in the 20s before John Hunter Nemechek took him out of his misery.

With that said, it is too early to write Logano off. Team Penske is still a top tier team. Logano still has top driver talent. Plus, the Fords are still adjusting to the new bodies. In terms of the playoffs, one win and Logano is in. Even if he struggles on the “normal” tracks, Daytona still looms in the summer.

Choke Merchant and Field Wrecker: The Chandler Smith Way

There is a bit of growing reputation for Chandler Smith that he chokes races away. Spring Las Vegas is truly his home to that claim. In both of his Xfinity starts in the spring, Smith dominated Las Vegas, won both stages, then watched from pit road as someone else did their burnout. Saturday’s race at Phoenix looked to be going along those same lines. Smith led the most laps, won a stage, but was not looking to be a contender in the last stage. Sure, his pit crew was a big reason why. However, a narrative has to be formed. How do you avoid choking away another race? Well, you wreck your competition.

Chandler Smith got too aggressive on a restart in the final stage and wiped out many of the Top-10. This included his teammates in John Hunter Nemechek and Aric Almirola. This narrowed the race winning contenders drastically, but did not give Smith the win. Instead, Justin Allgaier’s left rear tire did that for the young Toyota driver. Smith won during the overtime finish, where (hopefully for him) that will make up for the junked race cars.

Now, Chandler Smith did not endear himself to many with his actions Saturday. However, he has not established himself well enough yet to be considered a choker or a field wrecker. Smith has his whole career ahead of him to grow into those roles. Plus, you have to consistently run up front to be considered a choker.

Multiple “B-Tier” Teams Will Make Xfinity Playoffs

After 4 races, the Xfinity Series points standings have 2 second tiered teams making the playoffs. Parker Kligerman and Anthony Alfredo currently sit 11th and 12th in the points respectively. Closely following them is Ryan Sieg, who lurks behind by 2 points. While Kligerman is expected to run well enough to make the playoffs, Sieg and Alfredo are pleasant surprises. Alfredo picked up his second Top-10 of the season Saturday while Sieg ran there most of the day. At this point, they seemed poised to make a run at the playoffs. However, it might be a bit bold to say multiple of these teams will be part of the 12 playoff drivers.

Currently behind those drivers in points are 2 Kaulig cars, Sam Mayer, and both Jordan Anderson Racing entries. There are no surprises ahead of them in points either, unless you count Brandon Jones. For the driver playoffs, it is difficult to envision Sam Mayer not winning at least one race this year. Plus, his bad luck of DNFs has to end eventually. Even with the lack of confidence in Josh Williams, it is expected that Shane van Gisbergen will win Kaulig’s way to 2 drivers in the playoffs. As for the owner playoffs, the 20 Joe Gibbs Racing car is clinched, which already boots Alfredo out of those playoffs. There is another Joe Gibbs entry that could win in the regular season. While it is fun to see those three drivers in the playoff hunt, the cold water of reality is ready to be poured soon.