This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Bristol Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Bristol (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 11th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Alex Bowman 20th) (if Ryan Blaney didn’t barely beat Ross Chastain to the line for 5th it would have been 3, darn)
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-4 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all projections this year (4 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 5 of 150, 3.33%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 58 of 150, 38.67%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 35 of 150, 23.33%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 4, 0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 16 of 40, 40.0%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chase Elliott
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th -4 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th -5 |
| 4. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 29th -23 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 16th -8 |
| 9. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 13th -4 |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 4 | Josh Berry | 12th -1 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 22nd -10 |
| 13. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 11th +2 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th -11 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 15th +1 |
| 17. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 14th +3 |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 4th +14 |
| 19. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 9th +10 |
| 20. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 30th -10 |
| 21. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -11 |
| 23. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 27th -4 |
| 24. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 34th -10 |
| 25. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 21st +4 |
| 26. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 28th -2 |
| 27. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 26th +2 |
| 29. | 43 | Erik Jones | 20th +9 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 6th +24 |
| 31. | 71 | Zane Smith | 36th -5 |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 23rd +9 |
| 33. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 18th +17 |
| 36. | 51 | Justin Haley | 17th +19 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
