Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Bristol

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Bristol Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Bristol (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 11th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 2nd

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Alex Bowman 20th) (if Ryan Blaney didn’t barely beat Ross Chastain to the line for 5th it would have been 3, darn)
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-4 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15

Notes from all projections this year (4 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 5 of 150, 3.33%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 58 of 150, 38.67%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 35 of 150, 23.33%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 4, 0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 16 of 40, 40.0%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chase Elliott
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez

According to the numbers Kyle Larson will be standing in victory lane at Bristol, much like he did in 2021. Photo by Brian Lawdermilk — Getty Images

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.