This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 COTA Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: COTAÂ (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 5th
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 3rd race in a row where the projected 2nd place finisher won the race
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-8 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all projections this year (5 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 5 of 186, 2.69%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 75 of 186, 40.32%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 41 of 186, 22.04%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 5, 0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 22 of 50, 44.0%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 5th -3 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 10th -6 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 16th -11 |
| 6. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 9th -2 |
| 8. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +1 |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 18th -9 |
| 10. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 20th -10 |
| 11. | 13 | A.J. Allmendinger | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +10 |
| 13. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 38th -25 |
| 14. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 17th -3 |
| 15. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 8th +7 |
| 16. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 24th -6 |
| 19. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 12th +7 |
| 20. | 22 | Joey Logano | 11th +9 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th -4 |
| 22. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 22nd +0 |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 21st +3 |
| 25. | 51 | Justin Haley | 39th -14 |
| 26. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 13th +15 |
| 29. | 50 | Kamui Kobayashi | 29th +0 |
| 30. | 71 | Zane Smith | 19th +11 |
| 31. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 4 | Josh Berry | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 27th +6 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 32nd +2 |
| 35. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 28th +7 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 30th +6 |
| 37. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 37th +0 |
| 38. | 66 | Timmy Hill | 36th +2 |
| 39. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 33rd +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
