This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Phoenix Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Phoenix (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 10th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 drivers finished where they were projected (Joey Logano 9th)
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12
Notes from all projections this year (3 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 4 of 114, 3.51%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 40 of 114, 35.09%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 31 of 114, 27.19%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 3, 0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 11 of 30, 36.67%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Austin Cindric
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th -10 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 10th -7 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -30 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 6th -1 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 5th +1 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 19th -12 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 18th -10 |
| 9. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 14th -5 |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 7th +3 |
| 11. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 2nd +9 |
| 12. | 43 | Erik Jones | 31st -19 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 16th -3 |
| 14. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 9th +5 |
| 15. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +2 |
| 16. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25th -9 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 4th +13 |
| 18. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 8th +10 |
| 19. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +18 |
| 22. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +10 |
| 23. | 4 | Josh Berry | 26th -3 |
| 24. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 28th -2 |
| 27. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 35th -8 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +7 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 32nd -3 |
| 30. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 36th -6 |
| 31. | 71 | Zane Smith | 29th +2 |
| 32. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 30th +2 |
| 33. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 27th +6 |
| 34. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +17 |
| 35. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 51 | Justin Haley | 24th +12 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
