This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Phoenix Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Phoenix (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 10th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 2nd

Additional notes from last race:
-1 drivers finished where they were projected (Joey Logano 9th)
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12

Notes from all projections this year (3 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 4 of 114, 3.51%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 40 of 114, 35.09%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 31 of 114, 27.19%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 3, 0%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 11 of 30, 36.67%

Notable results this week

Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Austin Cindric

Denny Hamlin won the Pole for the Cup race at Phoenix. The numbers say he’ll end up P1 at the end of the race as well. Photo by Lyle Setter — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 11 Denny Hamlin 11th -10
2. 20 Christopher Bell 1st +1
3. 45 Tyler Reddick 10th -7
4. 22 Joey Logano 34th -30
5. 1 Ross Chastain 6th -1
6. 12 Ryan Blaney 5th +1
7. 9 Chase Elliott 19th -12
8. 24 William Byron 18th -10
9. 5 Kyle Larson 14th -5
10. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 7th +3
11. 17 Chris Buescher 2nd +9
12. 43 Erik Jones 31st -19
13. 23 Bubba Wallace 16th -3
14. 14 Chase Briscoe 9th +5
15. 99 Daniel Suarez 13th +2
16. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 25th -9
17. 6 Brad Keselowski 4th +13
18. 34 Michael McDowell 8th +10
19. 77 Carson Hocevar 15th +4
20. 48 Alex Bowman 20th +0
21. 54 Ty Gibbs 3rd +18
22. 10 Noah Gragson 12th +10
23. 4 Josh Berry 26th -3
24. 8 Kyle Busch 22nd +2
25. 41 Ryan Preece 23rd +2
26. 31 Daniel Hemric 28th -2
27. 16 Derek Kraus 35th -8
28. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 21st +7
29. 3 Austin Dillon 32nd -3
30. 2 Austin Cindric 36th -6
31. 71 Zane Smith 29th +2
32. 15 Kaz Grala 30th +2
33. 21 Harrison Burton 27th +6
34. 38 Todd Gilliland 17th +17
35. 7 Corey LaJoie 33rd +2
36. 51 Justin Haley 24th +12

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.