This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Richmond Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Richmond (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 4th race in a row where a driver projected to finish Top 2 won the race
-5 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 1st, Ty Gibbs 3rd, Carson Hocevar 22nd, Kamui Kobayashi 29th, Daniel Hemric 37th)
-13 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-7 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12
Notes from all projections this year (6 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 10 of 225, 4.44%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 96 of 225, 42.67%
-Drivers to finish 15+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 43 of 225, 19.11%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 6, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 29 of 60, 48.33%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th -7 |
| 3. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 17th -12 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 16th -10 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 8th -1 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 13th -5 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 20th -6 |
| 15. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 21st -6 |
| 16. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25th -9 |
| 17. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 26th -8 |
| 19. | 4 | Josh Berry | 11th +8 |
| 20. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 28th -8 |
| 21. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +9 |
| 22. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 18th +4 |
| 23. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 10th +13 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th +0 |
| 25. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 43 | Erik Jones | 14th +12 |
| 27. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -6 |
| 28. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 31st -2 |
| 30. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 34th -4 |
| 31. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 36th -5 |
| 32. | 71 | Zane Smith | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 22nd +12 |
| 35. | 51 | Justin Haley | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 16 | Ty Dillon | 29th +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
